Sunday, November 19, 2023
Arizona Cardinals vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: +6/-115 Arizona Cardinals Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN)
On the surface, Houston rookie QB C.J. Stroud (front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year) is getting all the billing & hype by putting up some astronomical numbers. Yes, some of it is warranted as he has an awesome 15/2 TD/INT ratio, 2,626 passing yards & a dependable RB in Devin Singletary (leads team with 359 rushing yards since Dameon Pierce (327 rushing yards) went down with an ankle injury 2 weeks ago (check status). I feel the Cardinals' defense has improved since they've yielded a decent 25 PPG over their past 4 games. S Budda Baker is now back off injury & has 2nd round rookie OLB BJ Ojulari bolstering the middle (registered 2 sacks last week versus Atlanta). Even though they'll face a red hot QB in Stroud, the Texans have still played relatively close games their past 3 by slim 2, 2 & 3-point margins. One BIG thing to remember is how Houston has performed as un underdog & favorite. They've certainly been solid as a dog going 5-0 versus the number. But on the OTHER side of the ledger, they've been a no-show @ the window posting a perfect 0-3 ATS favorite mark. The Cards were 1-13 SU the last 14 before Murray (was out with ACL re-construction) came back last week. However, it's tough for ANYONE to win led by QB's like Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley, David Blough & Clayton Tune. What has changed now? Leading rusher James Connor (437 rushing yards) is back as well as the off-script evasive scrambling ability & positive team-boosting energy of QB Kyler Murray. 2nd-year TE out of Colorado State Trey McBride (became the 1st TE with a 100+ game since 1989) has emerged as a go-to guy that's now caught 36 passes for 418 yards despite missing Murray for almost all of it. Murray beat the 7th-best "D" in Atlanta last week & now takes on a Houston defense (with a banged-up secondary) who ranks a distant 20th. The Cards' offensive numbers are tainted ranking 25th since they've been without Murray for a prolonged period & without Connor for a few weeks. Before this year, the last 2 seasons has seen Arizona go a solid 10-3 ATS as road underdog (mostly with Murray). Number show the Cards being 7th in sack rate & the Texans way back @ 23rd. My bottom line says the Houston "D" hasn't been formidable enough to provide the offense with enough stops. They rank a back-of-the-pack 24th in both 3rd down stops & opponent passer rating. Scheduling is ALSO on Zona's side since the Texans take on hated-rival, the Jacksonville Jaguars next week @ home (2nd game of a 3-game homestand) which could determine 1st place in the AFC South (Houston is 1 game back but controls the tie-breaker). Numbers show the Cards are a nifty 5-1 versus the number against the AFC South. The stellar system that REALLY stands out this week is a gigantic one. It says to GO AGAINST any NFL chalk with a winning SU record in Game 5 or deeper into the season if 1) they've won 4 or fewer games last season if 2) if they're off a SU underdog win 3) against an opponent off a SU win & 4) if their opponent is NOT off consecutive home games. If this criteria is met, this CHALK team has gone a constant, ticket-ripping 3-27 ATS! Here's where we'll play this. Let's travel to NRG Stadium in Texas to play the ARIZONA CARDINALS for 8 Stars (buying to + 10 1/2 @ -265) with a little pasta sprinkled on the ML as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play!
Notes: It was a euphoric kind of week with Arizona clawing their way back to a cover. The cherry on top of the whipped cream occurred in play 4 of a 4-team hi-roller parlay that cashed in on the Philadelphia Eagles. That made it an incredible 8 out of 10 in these tough to hit parlays. Why tease Philadelphia? Because KC has NOT showed up in the 2nd half ALL season scoring under 6 PPG in the final 2 quarters. On Monday even @ home, they were shutout.
My NFL Top 10 that takes into account lasting power more than records are: 1) Philadelphia Eagles 2) San Francisco 49ers 3) Kansas City Chiefs 4) Baltimore Ravens 5) Detroit Lions 6) Dallas Cowboys 7) Jacksonville Jaguars 8) Houston Texans 9) Buffalo Bills 10) Cleveland Browns Keep in mind 7-12 are very close so team may drastically move in & out of those spots weekly.
Clientele question of the week: What pressures do you feel when on a winning or losing streak?
Answer: I don't look @ streaks except to report & move on. The average bettor usually lets numbers & comments affect their performance. I use negativity as a FUEL for the FIRE. Each week you start 0-0 & are out to prove you're worthy of being #1. You have to handicap games very selectively & @ the right number of your worse scenario. I'm not a traditional handicapper who solely bets the pure line give a 1/2 a point here & there. With the ever-changing rosters & officials' inconsistencies, you have to figure that in to a larger degree than what the average bettor thinks. That's TODAY'S NFL. You must adapt or perish. Denial leads to major struggles & a horrible winning percentage & net profit. The old-fashioned cappers are seeing how my type of handicapping can rake in major profits IF & only IF you know what games have the sharpest lines. It's not easy to buy 3-4 points like I do. The average NFL game is 8 to 9 points off the closing lines. If you play a game @ the proper line in a SHARP-lined game, you'll win. Remember, I'm a 1/2-point from being 24-0 this season. Happy Thanksgiving to all subscribers, followers & friends for making this my best career season to date.
Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 23-1 for 96% for a juicy NET PROFIT of + 15,300 Units -- Vegastopdogs #1
Mike's CFB/NFL Overall Record: 36-4 for a NET PROFIT of + 19,530 Units
Mike's Hi-Roller 3/4+ Team Parlay Private Plays: 8-2 for a NET PROFIT of + 2,655 Units
All Football Net Units Record: + 22,185 Units
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