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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 11 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 24, 2020
   
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Monday, November 23, 2020 Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5/-115 Los Angeles Rams Rating: 8* Mike's MNF Attention Grabber (WIN) There's no running from the fact that 2020-21 Prime Time Dogs are a sitting-pretty 21-12 ATS coming into tonight. Further analytics reveal when Rams' HC Sean McVay travels to Eastern Time Zone versus the NFC, they've come back to the west coast a winner 6 times in a row. Buccaneers' QB Tom Brady hasn't actually shined in prime-timers this year. I thoroughly remember they had to pull one out @ the end controversially stopping a N.Y. Giants 2-point conversion that preserved a 25-23 win. Brady is not too short of receiving talent with 3 Pro Bowlers (1st time a team has had this since the 1994 Houston Oilers--QB Billy Jo Tolliver threw to WR's Ernest Givens, Haywood Jeffires & Webster Slaughter) to throw to like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin & the recently added Antonio Brown. I feel its going to be more than a few weeks to gel or mesh these guys into a consistent machine that TB needs for a respectable playoff run in the competitive NFC. They face the 3rd best passing "D" in the league here. My bottom line points out that we can't sleep on L.A.'s Jared Goff either since he's fared quite well SU with McVay compiling an overall 41-19 record with a 20-13 SU road slate. Productivity shows Tampa Bay being 14th in total offense fails in comparison to the Rams who come in a solid 7th. The defenses for both of these teams are close with L.A. 2nd & the Buccaneers 3rd overall. They've both pressured opposing QB's effectively with Tampa Bay registering 32 sacks to the Rams 31. Let's NOT forget this is a clear revenge game as the Bucs went into L.A. last season & came away with a 55-40 upset win. The situational edge ALSO goes to the Rams as they're fresh off a bye just 2 weeks ago while this will be Tampa Bay's 11th straight game without a bye (theirs is coming in 2 weeks). The Pirate Ships have NOT been a good home team to bettors since they've gone a ticket-ripping 2-7-2 ATS the past 11. Not making that same mistake (not buying to 5 1/2 with Philly yesterday), we'll go to Raymond James Stadium to play the LOS ANGELES RAMS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my MNF Attention Grabber! Sunday, November 22, 2020 Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6/-105 Tennessee Titans Rating: 8* Mike's AFC Playoff Rematch Play (WIN) It's really easy to say that the home-standing Baltimore Ravens will lay a can of whoop ass on the Titans for that 28-12 playoff upset of the Birds as 9 1/2-point pups last season. This line is already adjusted accordingly. What I want to stress here is that both of these offenses have looked mediocre over the last 2 as both scored identically 20.5 PPG. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson seems to be playing with an added pressure on himself that makes him look as tight as a drum. Tennessee HC Mike Vrabel & Jim Haslett will have an extra half-week to prepare their 3-4 defensive scheme to take Jackson out of rhythm once again. My bottom line says the Ravens having DT Calais Campbell banged up puts all the more pressure on stopping the Tennessee run game (ranked 6th) featuring Derrick Henry (946 rushing yards & 8 TD's). Keep in mind that the New England run game gashed DC Don "Wink" Martindale's 3-4 for 173 yards in a 23-17 upset win @ rainy Gillette Stadium last week. On the flip side, look for QB Ryan Tannehill (20/3 TD/INT ratio, 2,128 passing yards) to make a difference as he maneuvers out of the pocket (throwing to the corners) since OT Taylor Lewan was lost to an injury. Crunching the numbers show Tennessee being a perfect 3-0 SU & ATS off a Thursday loss as well as Baltimore going a no-show 2-10-2 ATS @ home off a SU favorite loss. The final DAGGERS for us points straight to the dog when Ryan Tannehill takes on the AFC North as they've gone a take-me-to-the-window 11-3 versus the number AND the Hill' also being a solid 26-19 SU versus Non-Divisional conference foes. Let's go by Chesapeake Bay in Inner Harbor over to M&T Bank Stadium to play the TENNESSEE TITANS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my AFC Playoff Rematch Play! Philadelphia Eagles vs. Cleveland Browns (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-115 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) HC Doug Pederson hasn't been too sharp lately. However, he does know the already 20th-ranked scoring defense in Cleveland will be missing their front lineman & key cog DE Myles Garrett (leads the NFL in forced fumbles). This opens up more ways he can utilize his offense using RB's Miles Sanders & Boston Scott to open up the play-action game for QB Carson Wentz. Wentz now has a full compliment of players to target like the red-hot Travis Fulgham & back-in-the-lineup WR's Jalen Reagor & Alshon Jeffery. One of the key points I'd like to stress here is DC Jim Schwartz of Philly has seen the blueprints all week on how the defenses of the Raiders AND the Texans put the clamps on Browns' QB & Oklahoma product Baker Mayfield the past 2 games. How did they do this? By taking Mayfield out of his play-action comfort zone of designed rollouts & bootlegs, the Cleveland offense has averaged a flopping 8 PPG in those affairs. I still think Mayfield is missing Odell Beckham Jr. more than he'll admit. On the flip side, I feel the better defense on the field is definitely the Eagles who rank 11th overall in total defense & chime in with the #3 (only behind Pittsburgh & Washington) "D" in sacking the QB. Putting more fuel on our fire, WIP (610 AM on your radio dial) sportscaster Angelo Cataldi was slamming Pederson (his offense was 0-for-9 on 3rd down versus the Giants LW) until the point of him storming off the set during his show. My bottom line says even though Philadelphia is going nowhere this season @ 3-5-1 (still good for 1st place), they've put up 29 points @ Pittsburgh & 25 points @ San Francisco. When out of their own division (averaging just under 20 PPG in their division), their offense should look efficient enough to handle a mediocre Browns' "D" without Garrett. The Birds also put up 28 points up on the #8 defense in the Baltimore Ravens earlier this season. I also feel Philly should be able to contain RB's Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt since they've plugged opposing run games to the tune of 3.4 YPC thus far. This series has gone to the Eagles 5 straight times SU since the Brownies renewed their franchise in 1999. Analytics are clear as day when putting Baker Mayfield under the microscope who is 5-9 ATS as a favorite of 7 or less & a struggling 12-19 ATS on Sunday games. Let's go to FirstEnergy Stadium in Ohio to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (buying to a key + 4 1/2) as my 9* NFL Earlybird Dependable! NOTES: Trying to cut corners to be exact when taking the Eagles (+ 4 1/2) seems NOT to be the rule of thumb. Their games are trending to involve long-shot pick-6's & safeties WAY too much for comfort. Now you see (lost by the hook) why you need an extra point to usually clear the muck that's becoming the Philadelphia way of attack. But HEY, it was another winning week in what was a DISASTER for Vegas Kingpins as the Top 5 contestants for the big money ALL that's right ALL went exactly 1-4! Moving on to other games, it was unfortunate for the Ravens who seem to be bitten hard by the injury & COVID-19 bugs. I felt the Titans were the way to go with + 7 1/2 as they already had that swagger walking into Inner Harbor having defeated Baltimore in the playoffs last season. After watching that Buccaneers-Rams game on Monday night, it certainly seems even more apparent that Tom Brady needs an undetermined amount of time adjusting to the NEW chemistry of his receiving corp that includes Antonio Brown. Their matchup with the WC Chiefs is a much watch during the later games on Sunday afternoon. MANY subscribers are asking what's making the Eagles as bad as they look. I'll take an in-depth look tomorrow so stay tuned! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 21-9 70%
 

  Mike Handzelek
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