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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 10 Analysis/Review/Notes/Power Rankings


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 15, 2021
   
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Sunday, November 14, 2021 New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-115 New Orleans Saints Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) Yes, the Titans are legitimate. However, HC Mike Vrabel's hasn't won MORE than 5 in a row SU & they're in an un-familiar "hunter" instead of "hunted" role today. The Tennessee defense won their game single-handed over the Rams last week with 2 pick-6's of clueless Matthew Stafford (L.A. outgained them 347 to 194 with TN QB Ryan Tannehill's passer rating was just 79.5). New Orleans QB Jameis Winston may be out of the lineup, but these Saints are #1 in yards per point in the NFL (Tenn. is #2)! When you look @ both of these defenses in that same category, the saints chime in @ 5th while the Titans are 12th. No matter whose been @ QB, HC Sean Payton has been MONEY as an away underdog covering 7 of their last 8 chances. Nashville's Finest are a strong 7-2 SU but their wins haven't been collectively overwhelming as witnessed by a +44 points (or just under + 5 PPG) in net scoring. There's no getting around Tenny-Town having a one-dimensional offense (without RB Derrick Henry & WR Julio Jones) taking on a Dennis Allen defense with the advantage of being able to drop extra men in coverage. On offense, NO QB Trevor Siemian (3/0 TD/INT ratio) should be able to find openings since the Titans' "D" have to bring more defenders in the box in trying to neutralize all-purpose RB Alvin Kamara. My bottom line looks into the past 22 seasons as how teams come back off of 4 consecutive underdog wins in a row as a favorite. In these rare situations, the following game has seen these now HUNTER (not HUNTED) teams go a dismal 2-5 SU & 1-5-1 versus the number. Let's go to Nissan Stadium in Nashville to play the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (buying to + 4 1/2) but spreading some pasta on the ML as my 9* NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/100 Minnesota Vikings Rating: 8* Mike's Later Game Steam Play (WIN) Yes, the Vikings are losing games, but losing close ones! For this one, there's NO getting around HC Mike Zimmer's awesome 34-17 ATS record @ Minny off of a SU loss. The 3-5 SU Purple People Eaters have an NFL-leading 7 one-score games in 8 tries thus far (they beat Seattle by 13 in Week 3 for the other). In the Chargers' 27-24 win last week, they gave up an alarming 176 rushing yards to Philadelphia. That's immediately raising a red flag here. On the flip side, Baltimore controlled the clock for 23 extra minutes (46-23) against the Vikings & still needed a late FG to win, 34-31. This is a DESPERATION game to say the least for Minnesota with not only Zimmer on the line but GM Rick Spielman. Number show that November has not been too kind to Los Angeles as they come into this one just 1-7 ATS the past 8. My bottom line points out how the Purple & White do in the non-divisional underdog role when coming off a SU loss. In this given situation, they've gone a window-cashing 15-5-1 ATS. If they're taking on an opponent with a winning percentage of .600 or better, that record becomes a near-flawless 9-1-1 versus the number. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins comes into this with a nifty 16/2 TD/INT ratio with 2,140 passing yards & a 68.25 completion rate @ the halfway point. I look for Zimmer to attack the right O-Line while also hounding QB Justin Herbert with more dial-up pressures. I love the fact that the Vikes are # 1 in sacks & ALSO #1 in protecting the QB. Zimmer has beaten this team both times he played them with a 31-14 home win in 2015 & a 39-10 blowout win in L.A. in 2019. Let's go to SoFi Stadium in Inglewood to play the MINNESOTA VIKINGS (buying to a key + 7 1/2-see above while also spreading some pasta on the ML) as my 8* Later Game Steam Play! Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -145 Kansas City Chiefs Rating: 8* Mike's Prime-Time Sunday Nighter (WIN) The 5-4 SU Chiefs may have looked like they've been playing street ball of late. However, they've beaten this team SU 3 out of the last 4 on the road. I don't think Chairman/CEO Clark Hunt isn't pressing any panic buttons yet. While the Chiefs' offense (still 7th in total "O" & 7th in QB Protection) has taken a step back, their defense has been playing some inspired football under DC Steve Spagnuolo. This season, Spags has a 4-3 scheme that's now designed to shell out more blitz packages than usual. I feel that KC can win the war in the trenches as 5-3 SU Las Vegas is 27th in rushing offense & 28th in rushing defense. There's been a radical chemistry change on the Raiders' side with HC Jon Gruden gone while losing both 2020 first-round draft picks (WR Henry Ruggs (Alabama)-their primary vertical threat & CB Damon Arnette (Ohio State) the past month. They have a weaker O-Line than they started with & gave up a whopping 149 rushing yards to a Giants' team last week. The Raiders do hold a "0" to "-9" turnover edge thus far. However, Las Vegas has been MORE than fortunate fumbling 10 times & losing just 1. My bottom line says you can't over-react about KC's offense. Mahomes still has a 20/10 TD/INT ratio & his 20 TD passes is tied for 3rd in the NFL with Burrow & trails Brady & Stafford. Numbers show the Chiefs have been consistently solid versus lesser defensive teams (allowing 23.5 PPG). Over the longer haul, they've gone 33-16-1 ATS on the road in this given situation. I also This line is out of WHACK! The last 5 games of this series have produced NO LINE of less than 7. Playing this on the ML is a MAJOR advantage with the KC side. Yes, this game is a tough one to separate for most. But in the end, Pat Mahomes has more playmakers (like TE Travis Kelce) he can exploit in a vulnerable LV secondary. Let's jet out to Allegiant Stadium to confidently play the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS as my 8* Prime-Time Sunday Nighter! NOTES & POWER RANKINGS: It was un-characteristic for the Saints to turn the ball over 3 times. Without late-scratch Kamara, they STILL out-gained the Titans in their house 373 to 264. However, 2 missed PAT's & a poor officiating roughing the passer penalty on an end zone INT doomed the outright New Orleans win. Nevertheless, we'd cash with the + 4 1/2. It was easy breezing the rest of the way with the Vikings getting the win ATS MNF& on the Dog ML for us. Minnesota's pressure "D" held Herbert to 171 passing yards & the Chargers to just 253 net yards. We ended the night with a sheer GIFT & 4 TD win with Mahomes back in dominant fashion. MNF saw Rams' Odell Beckham Jr. (You don't let the defender between the QB & the ball!) break off a route & hang his new QB Matthew Stafford out to dry for an easy INT. 49ers' HC Kyle Shanahan just owns Sean McVay of late as he's now won 5 straight versus the Rams (1-3 before that). Let's move on to a revolving door set of my Power Rankings. These are highly based on strength of schedule, head-to-head & intangible criteria. 1) Green Bay Packers -- Joe Barry's 3-4 scheme is thriving right now. However, Kirk Cousins & the under-rated/desperate Vikes are coming who are 3-3-1 versus the Pack since he came over from Washington. 2) Arizona Cardinals -- They're still super-talented with Kyler Murray & DeAndre Hopkins back soon. Rematch with the Rams set for Week 14 in Arizona. 3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- It's a little early to press ANY panic buttons. However, an intriguing matchup with Buffalo awaits in Week 14. 4) Tennessee Titans -- I'm awaiting how they'll handle adversity when they travel to New England for Week 12. 5) Dallas Cowboys -- Big test this week @ hot Kansas City. Don't over-react to that blowout. Cowboys' DC Dan Quinn new every Atlanta tendency (coached their last year) & knew what was coming in that 43-3 Dallas win. 6) Los Angeles Rams -- They could decline. They're in trouble if they can't compensate for the BIG loss of dynamic WR Robert Woods. We'll know much more when they play @ GB in Week 12 after their upcoming bye week. 7) Buffalo Bills -- They have a AFC Playoff rematch with Indy this week. Everyone has Week 13 circled for their home MNF game versus divisional-rival NE. 8) New England Patriots -- QB Mac Jones is flourishing under OC Josh McDaniels. The story still remains (after trading away Stephon Gilmore) how HC Bill Belichick's 3-4 defensive scheme continues to improve. DeMarcus Covington, Jerod Mayo & Steve Belichick have employed Bill's plan effectively as coaches on the 1st 2 levels. How they handle Buffalo twice will tell us more. 9) Kansas City Chiefs -- They're up & coming if Mahomes remembers to shred defenses in middle routes effectively BEFORE going deeper. The reverse mentality of that has led to some careless INT's. We'll see if the Cowboys or KC are for real this weekend @ tough Arrowhead Stadium. 10) Baltimore Ravens -- QB Lamar Jackson & the secondary must step it up. After a roadie versus Chicago, they'll play Cleveland @ home on Thanksgiving weekend. 11) New Orleans Saints -- The defense & QB Trevor Siemian must stay SOLID (& the kicking game) for this team to win consistently. They'll entertain the Bills Thanksgiving night. 12) Cincinnati Bengals -- This team can't afford to look ahead to Pittsburgh in Week 12. They'll drop out of my Top 14 with a loss to the Raiders. 13) Pittsburgh Steelers -- This team must develop an identity. They have a rough schedule forthcoming. Playoffs remain iffy. 14) Los Angeles Chargers -- If this team WANTS to make the playoffs, they'll have to do much better than 2-3 @ home. Just Missed: Indianapolis Colts -- Their season might be defined this weekend in Buffalo. Carolina Panthers -- I need a BIGGER sample size with Newton before saying they have a good chance to sustain an NFC 7th seed. Cleveland Browns -- If the defense & running game doesn't STAY healthy, they're not a playoff team. Big AFC North game @ Inner Harbor in Week 12. Las Vegas Raiders -- So much adversity but still holding on to playoff hopes. Denver Broncos -- They have an uphill climb with a tough schedule. At .500, they're in it for now. Be back for another sizzling weekend in the NFL. Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 NFL Overall Record: 18-10 for 64% NFL Week 10 Record: 3-0 for 100% Mike Handzelek's NFL Regular Season Record L2 Years: 50-22 for a surreal 69% Thanks to all my loyal subscribers, followers that include Vegas, Court House, N' West & Moc. guys who believe in my unique total process!
 

  Mike Handzelek
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