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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 1 Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 1 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 14, 2022
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Sunday, September 11. 2022 Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7/-105 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 8* Mike's Background Checker Play (WIN) There's more than a few returns for this game as newly-inserted Jets' starting QB Joe Flacco gets the call (led the Ravens to a Super Bowl title in 2013) whose in for the injured Zach Wilson (already had a microcosmic 1st season). Expect RB's Michael Carter & rookie out of Iowa State Breece Hall to get a generous amount of carries. In 2 seasons for New York, Flacco is a perfect 0-5 SU as a starter & for the 1st time he'll be taking on a very difficult Baltimore 3-4 scheme of DC Mike Macdonald (he's back after spending a stint as DC for HC Jim Harbaugh's Michigan Wolverines) that has S Marcus Williams & CB Marlon Humphrey intact in a healthier secondary (check CB Marcus Peters' status the next few weeks). I look for the Ravens to come out fuming after ending the season on a 6-game losing streak when they dealt with COVID-19 issues & playmaker injuries. As far as season openers are concerned, the Purple & Black have won 5 of their last 6 with the only loss being a OT 33-27 Monday night decision @ Las Vegas last year. In the 5 openers that they won prior, their average winning margin was an incredible 30.2 PPG. They are solid & excellent starters out of the gate by opening the first third of last season with a 5-1 SU record LY. Hot seat Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson (37-12 SU as a starter in the regular season) will be extremely motivated here as he'll be out to prove he's significantly better than Flacco who he replaced. Remember, he wants to get paid since his new contract is yet resolved. He'll be facing a Jets' 4-3 scheme from DC Jeff Ulbrich that were 32nd in the NFL in both scoring & total defense categories. Until New York gets it right (currently has the longest playoff drought of 11 consecutive seasons), they are a PLAY AGAINST team especially versus Jackson who guides the 4th most productive team in scoring since 2018 (only trails Kansas City, Tampa Bay & New Orleans). Crunching the numbers reveal Baltimore also 5-1 ATS their last 6 openers while the Fly Boys come in turning a 1-5 pointspread slate their last 6 lid-lifters. Gang Green is also just 3-6 ATS as a home pup of late & just 1-9 SU in this series the last 10. My bottom line says the Ravens are strong starters while their opponent is quite the opposite versus the number turning in a no-show 6-20-1 ATS record in September. The Ravens having the book on Flacco is a BIG advantage. We're on our way to a rainy MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS (buying to -2 1/2) as my 8 Star Background Checker Play! San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -291 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 8* Weekend Warrior Play (LOSS) Matt Nagy is gone & our old DC of the Colts has now taken over the reigns as skipper of the "Monsters of The Midway" as in Matt Eberflus. Eberflus' OC Luke Getsy has his work cut out for him tuning up ex-Buckeyes' QB Justin Fields (7/10 TD/INT ratio LY--far from Sid Luckman-type stats of the glory days) in running a new offense with complex blocking schemes in hopes of springing RB David Montgomery (225 carries, 849 rushing yards, 7 TD's) as well as buying time for Fields (Bears were 32nd in QB protection) to strike his playmaker in ex-Tulane WR Darnell Mooney (81 catches, 1,055 yards, 4 TD's). They'll be facing DC DeMeco Ryans' tough 4-3 alignment led by DE Nick Bosa (#1 on the team with 15 1/2 sacks) on a "D" that was ranked 3rd in the NFL. The SF defense will be keying on Fields this time around (he ran for 103 yards & a TD last season) after watching film of that game played on Halloween @ this same venue, a 33-22 49ers' win. On the flip side, ANOTHER 2nd-year QB & North Dakota State product Trey Lance (3rd pick in the 21' draft) takes over from now 2nd-stringer Jimmy Garappolo (?) as HC Kyle Shanahan & GM John Lynch felt the time is right to move in a newer direction. Lance is RICH with weapons that include ex-Gamecocks' speedster in WR/SlotBack Deebo Samuel (77 catches, 1,405 yards & 59 carries, 365 rushing yards for 14 combined TD's), RB Elijah Mitchell (207 rushes for 963 yards, 5 TD's), WR Brandon Aiyuk (56 receptions, 826 yards receiving, 5 TD's) & Iowa grad /TE George Kittle (71 catches, 910 receiving yards & 6 TD's)-listed as questionable here. They'll look @ DC Alan Williams' new 4-3 scheme (yes, the traditional 3-4 is GONE) led by 12-year vet DE Robert Quinn (#1 in sacks with 18 1/2 last season on a "D" #1 in sacks). However, my concern is a secondary that finished 32nd in defensive passer rating (103.3) in 21' that frequently got burnt (Chicago 21st in scoring "D") This season's overall "D" was drafted on speed & is unproven. Crunching the numbers looks @ the 49ers being a superb 5-0 ATS in the NFC, 5-2 ATS as a favorite, 6-1 versus the number on grass & 4-0 pointspread-wise taking to the road. More numbers support us with Chi-Town being 2-8 ATS versus the NFC, 1-5 versus the number as a dog including a perfect 0-6 pointspread-wise as a home pup. The last 5 of 6 pointspreads in this series went to the road team (it's their 66th meeting with the series tied 32-32-1). Training camp @ Halas Hall in Lake Forest, IL is over & my bottom line says Eberflus picking up 6 players on waivers AFTER roster cuts is NOT a good sign for a team already in transition with a whole new coaching staff top to bottom. The first few weeks these team will be gelling & just looking for the "W" so we'll be playing more ML's than ATS plays to start. This line has been over-adjusted but I confidently feel the higher-price has more advantages than the payout. Da' Bears have lost 4 straight NFC season openers SU outside of their own division & are 1-6 their last 7 lid-lifters. Let's go to legendary Soldier Field (not for long since they purchased land @ the now-closed Arlington Park racetrack in the suburb of Arlington Heights) to play the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS as my 8 Star Weekend Warrior Play! NOTES: The Ravens came through with flying colors leading the whole way with Lamar Jackson throwing 3 TD passes in a 24-9 win. However, the perfect weekend (won Saturday's game) came to end when the San Francisco 49ers couldn't hold a 10-0 lead in the 2nd half on a rain-drenched Soldier Field. Misfortune hit when their playmaking RB Elijah Mitchell (6 carries for 41 yards) was lost to a knee injury in the 2nd quarter. Despite losing Mitchell, the 49ers out-gained Chicago 313 to 204 but still managed to lose SU. Remember, started the year 2-3 last season but finished the year @ a record 76%. The blueprint analytics form after a weeks AND so do the mushes profiles which gives us supreme advantages. That's how winning percentages have wound up over 70% in back-to-back NFL seasons. We're shooting for 65% or better but we'll gladly take the 70 percentile once again. Let's proceed gradually in the NFL & stay hot in CFB 2-0 Sides, 0-1 Parlays for 67% this season. LET'S GET'EM! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Record: 1-1 for 50%

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