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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Divisional Round Deepest Card+ 3 Teamer Analysis/Review

Mike Handzelek's NFL Divisional Round Deepest Card+ 3 Teamer Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Jan 23, 2024
   
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Sunday, January 21, 2024 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (NFL) - 6:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-110 Kansas City Chiefs Rating: 9* Mike's 3rd Leg of a 3-Team Parlay (WIN) The toughest thing for me to get past when it comes to the talented Bills' QB Josh Allen is his 0-2 SU versus Pat Mahomes in the playoffs. Does the whole burden fall on Allen anyway? I don't believe so. The whole sum of its parts is what concerns me here. You have a ton of injuries to Buffalo's defensive side (in the LB corp & secondary) which are going to tough to overcome versus a HOF QB like Mahomes whose making his 16th career playoff start. Sure, the Bills have won 6 games in a row & come in with tremendous momentum. Revenge is ALSO a key edge for them since the last time these 2 hooked up in the playoffs (January, 2022). That game was an instant CLASSIC that saw many lead changes (especially in the 4th quarter) before Kansas City outlasted Buffalo 42-36. It was a quite a different story in the last 2 regular seasons where the "AFC East's Finest" were victorious over the Chiefs in 2 low-scoring affairs. Has Mahomes ever played a road playoff game in the AFC? No, but he had a true road playoff game for a Super Bowl. He may be a solid 12-3 SU in career playoff games but one of those losses was to the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl in Tampa. My bottom line says the 2 EXTRA days rest is a an EDGE to the Chiefs that should have them IN IT to WIN IT down the stretch.KC has been a staple in the Divisional Round reaching it for the NINTH straight time. The talent edge is very slim between the 2 even without Buffalo's key defensive personnel. The last 3 games between these 2 has seen the margin of victory be 3, 4 & 6 in OT. Remember, Mahomes is a take-me-back-to-the-window 11-1 ATS in his career as an underdog so "Fearing The Walrus" (Andy Reid) is in full order. Here's exactly where we'll be playing my 3rd & final NFL play. Take the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for 9 Stars (buying to a key + 11 1/2 @ -435) & combined with Baltimore -2 @ -385 plus San Francisco -1 @ -420 for a 3- teamer payback of a normal-type vig -109 for 9 Stars. BONUS: a small 3- Teamer Side Parlay of SF -13 1/2 @ +135 with Balt - 6 1/2 with KC + 7 1/2 @ a pretty + 401 payback. Saturday, January 20, 2024 Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -10/100 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 9* Mike's 1st Leg of A 3-Team Parlay (WIN) It was my 1st BAD loss of the year with Cleveland last week.This week, these same Ravens have now learned how NOT to play the Houston wideouts (Are you listening DC Jim Schwartz?). This game is Baltimore HC John Harbaugh's 21st playoff game in which he's a very solid 13-7 for 65% ATS. I feel this game will be eventually won in the trenches. That's where the Ravens have the edge. Sure, the Texans have a talented arm with QB C.J. Stroud. But how long will he be on the field if Houston can't sustain long drives? Everyone is QUICK to point out QB Lamar Jackson's 1-3 SU career playoff mark. That was with quite a different type of teams. This post-season, Baltimore has a FOUR-headed coin for their running game. The ever-dangerous Lamar Jackson can break away @ any moment of the game. In addition, not only does he have FB Gus Edwards (took a pay cut to remain with the team), but has a fresh mighty-mite Justice Hill & the newly-acquired journeyman Dalvin Cook (should have some success here after running behind a bad Jets' offensive line). That's quite a sum of parts compared to Houston's two 5-year vets, Devin Singletary & Dare Ogunbowale. I feel Houston is a different team if they are forced to come from behind. The Ravens are on a mission. Numbers clearly show the Purple & Black is 3-0 SU & ATS this season when coming off a loss with an average win by 16 points. HISTORY reveals that Divisional Round winners that are home off a bye AND coming off a SU loss are an off-the-charts 13-1 SU. If you're playing it against the pure number (we're not), know that John Harbaugh is 34-5-2 ATS in games his team wins SU as favorites versus WINNING teams. Take the BALTIMORE RAVENS for Play 1-9 Stars (buy to -2 @ -385) combined with SF -2 & KC + 11 1/2 in a 3-teamer @ -109 for 9 Stars. Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -10/-105 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 9* Mike's 2nd Leg of a 3-Team Parlay (WIN) There's many angles of which to approach this game that include home field advantage of an upcoming team with serious momentum. The spread is tempting but because of the sloppy forecasted weather, there's only 1 way I want to play this one. The ONE underlying factor that's BIG with me looks @ a HOME team that's lost their conference championship game the previous season. When you combine that factor with taking on an opponent off a win of 7 or more if that team was also a dog of 3 or more, the HOME team (in this case SF) has performed off the charts SU going a perfect 15-0! It's pretty tempting to ride Kyle Shanahan's 7-2 ATS playoff mark, but it surely comes with a price. While I feel this number is slightly inflated, we're now going to downsize it to my key number set for this 3-Teamer to take full advantage @ a nifty price. Take the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS for 9 Stars (buying to -1 @ -420) and as Leg 2 of a 3-Teamer with Baltimore -2 & KC @ + 11 1/2 @ -109 - for 9 Stars. Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 33-3 for 92% +19,500 NET UNITS!!! Mike's Final 2023-24 CFB Overall Record: 16-7-1 for 69% +1,490 NET UNITS Mike's CFB/NFL Combined Overall Record: 49-10-1 for 83% + 20,990 NET UNITS Mike's Private Plays 3/4+ Team Parlays Overall Record: 13-4 for 76% + 4,710 NET UNITS Mike's ALL-Football Record: + 25,700 NET UNITS
 


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