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Mike Handzeleks NFL Divisional Round


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Jan 26, 2022
   
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Saturday, January 22, 2022 San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -240 Green Bay Packers Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Divisional Round Perfect Storms Play (LOSS) What really stands out for me in this game is the MANY intangibles that favor the Green Bay Packers. The frozen tundra (possible wind chill factor of minus-1 or less) will be just that as warm-weather San Francisco will again attempt to beat the Pack in the elements without a healthy QB as Jimmy Garoppolo right shoulder & right thumb remain a big concern. DC Joe Barry has had 2 weeks to prepare for the running game of San Francisco & will have defensive schemes to neutralize & contain RB/WR Deebo Samuel & RB Elijah Mitchell forcing Garoppolo to throw. In addition, this will be the 3rd road elimination game for the 49ers in a row besides the 6th road game in 8 weeks for them. The last 2 times these 2 met were on the west coast where the Packers won 30-28 this September 21' & also 34-17 last season in November 20'. Both games saw Green Bay hold an all-important 2-0 turnover advantage which usually tells the tale in the playoffs. There's certain analytics that ALSO come into play after the 1st round of the playoffs. For instance, the past 24 seasons has seen 1st round underdog SU winners (SF) come back to go just 6-30 SU in the divisional round. Those numbers have become way more significant the past 9 seasons where these underdog winners have gone a no-show 1-14 SU. Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season (GB) have gone 30-19 SU & 33-15-1 ATS the past 12 seasons. Since Cheeseheads' HC Matt LaFleur took over the reigns in 2019, he's guided the Pack to a 24-3 SU record @ Lambeau Field. The perfect storms have to be LaFleur's 9-0 SU when coming off a SU loss along with QB Aaron Rodgers 6-0 SU & ATS against opponents coming off a SU underdog win & being 8-0 SU @ Lambeau this season. My bottom line says to expect Green Bay to change tempos throughout knowing San Francisco is forced to play DE Joey Bosa (concussion) & LB Fred Warner (knee) coming off injuries. They'll face WR Davante Adams who set the Packers single-season record for receiving yards with 1,553 yards & Rodgers who became the 2nd QB ever (besides Brady) to throw 2+ TD passes & 0 INT's in 7+ straight games. Green Bay swept the tough NFC West Division (4-0) during the regular season & did beat the Rams (32-18) during this playoff round last season @ this venue. Remember, the Pack went 6-0 ATS versus playoff teams this season while SF went 5-4 both SU & ATS. Over the past 10 seasons, rested teams this round have also went 27-7 SU versus non-rested teams. The 49ers have also failed versus opponents off a bye going 7-16 versus the number in that role. #1 seeds this round have also gone 25-11 SU this round the past 18 years. Keep in mind that road teams that score 20 points or less this round have gone 4-37 SU (20-19 if scoring 21 or more) the past 20 seasons. We're backing the better QB in Rodgers whose 37/2 TD/INT ratio is hard to match since Week 2 this season. Let's go to Lambeau Field in frigid Wisconsin to play the GREEN BAY PACKERS for the "W" as my 8* NFL Divisional Round Perfect Storms Play!

NOTES: Forthcoming Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 NFL overall Record: 32-11 for 74% Mike's NFL Record Last 18: 17-1 for 94% Mike's NFL Playoff Record: 1-1 for 50%
 


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