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Mike Handzelek's NFL Championship Round Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Jan 31, 2022
   
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Sunday, January 30, 2022 San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams (NFL) - 6:40 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -175 Los Angeles Rams Rating: 9* Mike's Public Missed Perception Play Of The Week (WIN) Forget the regular season! Forget the 6-game losing streak! All of it occurred in regular season & means nothing here! When it comes to QB's & the playoffs, remember Jimmy Garoppolo (3,810 passing yards & a 20/12 TD/INT ratio) hasn't been spectacular with a 2/5 TD/INT ratio compared to Matthew Stafford's (4,886 passing yards & a 41/17 TD/INT ratio) 8/3 TD/INT ratio. Since the 2021-22 NFL Playoffs started, the weakest QB lost every week. We saw Derek Carr go down in the Super Wild Card Round & Ryan Tannehill in the Divisional Round. We saw an offensive tiredness last week on the offensive end with San Francisco where they compiled just 12 first downs, 212 total yards & zero TD's. Unfortunately for us, their special teams bailed them out with a blocked FG & blocked punt for a TD. To me, Garoppolo is clearly the weakest QB this week. That 13-10 upset of the Packers was extremely bitter for us since it ended my 17-game win streak. For this game, we have a rejuvenated Rams' squad (7-1 SU their last 8) who clearly show a QB in the groove (64 points in 2 playoff games) that has established chemistry with a now-in-synch Odell Beckham Jr. (305 receiving yards & 5 TD's) as his #2 go to receiver behind Cooper Kupp (1,947 receiving yards & 16 TD's). The San Francisco side has a tough 4-3 defensive scheme that feature their infamous jailbreak blitz package under DC DeMeco Ryans. But I feel the 49ers trying to win their 4th straight elimination game on the road will prove to be fatal as they'll have to go with 3 injured playmakers with OT Trent Williams & WR/RB Deebo Samuel (1,405 receiving yards, 6 TD's, 365 rushing yards, 8 TD's). I further feel Samuel not being close to 100% is a big factor in the end. Their other RB Elijah Mitchell (963 yards rushing, 5 TD's) is also a go but with an injured knee. Now lets look @ some key analytical gems! The hosts are on a nice 13-3 SU in the championship round. Home teams that are favored by 7 or fewer points have gone 14-5 SU the last 19. Road teams that have just won by 7 points or less (SF) have gone a no-show 2-15 SU the past 17 conference title games. If the home team (LA was 10-6 SU LY) made the playoffs the previous year, they've gone a super-solid 20-6 SU since 2004. But if they're facing a team that didn't make the playoffs (SF was 6-10 SU LY), their SU mark turns into a near-perfect 7-1 SU. Furthermore, Wild-Card teams seeded 5th or 6th (SF) have turned in a very weak 4-9 SU since 96' & a putrid 2-6 SU in this round the past 11 seasons. Over the past 19 conference title seasons, teams holding an edge in total offensive passing yardage have proceeded to go a not-too-shabby 26-12 SU. Teams that scored more total points in the regular season (LA) are on a nice 19-9 SU run. The past 18 seasons in th e championship round have seen the team with the lesser turnovers go a take-me-to-the-window 28-4 ATS. So who wins? My bottom line says the Rams are on a mission. They're SUPER-motivated here since the crowd is spiting them @ this venue with a slight majority lean to the 49ers. They'll feel slighted & will psychologically play like an underdog with bite (even though they're the lined favorite). Let's get pumped & ready as we go to a crowd of 71,500+ @ Inglewood, CA's SoFi Stadium to play the LOS ANGELES RAMS on the ML as my 9* Public Missed Perception Play Of The Week! NOTES: Forthcoming Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 NFL Overall Record: 33-11 for a career high 75% Mike's NFL Record Last 19 Plays: 18-1 for 95% Mike's NFL Playoffs Record: 2-1 for 67% Thanks to all my VTD loyal subscribers, followers, Northwest group, Mocanaqua group, Facebook group & the C-House group who've believed in the total process from Week 1 to the present.
 


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