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Mike Handzelek's Later End CFB Bowl Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Jan 3, 2023
   
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Monday, January 02, 2023 Utah vs. Penn State (NCAAF) - 5:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +1/-110 Penn State Rating: 10* Mike's 12 Star College Bowl Play of the Year (DOUBLE WIN GOY) (BIG ML DOG WIN) Before we get into it, let's remember you have to play the right team & @ the right line to win consistently over the long run. You must do it @ a 60% or better clip. Utah is no stranger to the Rose Bowl as they got nipped 48-45 by Ohio State last year. Yes, Utah QB Cam Rising (2,939 passing yards with a 25/7 TD/INT ratio) gets another chance (got injured in the 4th quarter LY) in front of a lot of his high school buddies as he played for the Newbury Park HS Panthers in Ventura County which is less than an hour from the San Gabriel Mountains & Pasadena. What people don't realize is that Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford (2,543 passing yards with a 22/7 TD/INT ratio) is a seasoned veteran in his 6th season & performed well against a tough schedule where he only came up short versus the 2nd & 4th-ranked teams like Michigan & Ohio State. I feel PSU is the more excited team making their 1st trip back to the Rose Bowl since 16' when they lost a nail-biter to USC 52-49 as 7-point dogs. The big determining factor for me here is the Utes have their best RB in Tavion Thomas & WR in Dalton Kincaid opting out for this game. A bigger blow for the Utes has to be missing the opt-outed All-American CB Clark Phillips (tied for 2nd nationally with 6 INT's). These key opt outs have been a post-season contributing factor as HC Kyle Whittingham's squad is now 0-3 SU their last 3 bowls while also losing to Texas 38-10 in 19's Alamo Bowl & losing to Northwestern 31-20 in 18's Holiday Bowl. It's tough to back a team that gives up an average of 39 PPG in bowls without their best RB & WR. My bottom line says the best & deepest unit on the field here is the Nittany Lions' defense where they give up a stingy 3.2 YPC on the ground. Let's look @ some key systems. For a team who returns to the same bowl that they lost SU a year previously (Utah) & are coming in off back-to-back SU & ATS wins, the past 42 seasons have seen these specific teams go a ML ticket-ripping 5-9 SU & a no-show-@-the-window 4-10 ATS. Keeping that same thought of coming off back-to-back SU & ATS wins, it is Penn State whose a near-perfect 17-1 ATS their last 18 & a window-paybacking 16-3 SU their last 19 in that role. Here's the dagger! Coming into this bowl season, PAC-12 teams when facing an opponent coming in off a SU win have gone a no-show 1-23 versus the number. How have these teams done versus winning teams? Utah is just 1-4 their last 5 while PSU chimes in @ a convincing 5-1 their last 6 in those roles. We're high-steppin' it to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena to play the PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (buying to + 3 1/2) with a mucho dinero supply of pasta on the ML as my 12 Star College Bowl Play of the Year! Saturday, December 31, 2022 Ohio State vs. Georgia (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +6/-115 Ohio State Rating: 10* Mike's 10 Star CFB Semi-Final Smart Play (WIN) Many are counting out the Buckeyes since RB Treyvon Henderson & WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba are ruled out. The line & the action is an over-reaction to the Buckeyes' loss to Michigan earlier. There's still a lot of offensive firepower left with QB CJ Stroud (3,340 passing yards & a 37/6 TD/INT ratio) hitting a few more 1,000-yd WR's like Marvin Harrison , Jr. (12 TD's) & Emekga Egbuka ( TD's). Remember, the last 10 years there were 10 times Ohio State was installed as underdogs & they came out with 8 OUTRIGHT wins! If we look @ OSU as underdogs of more than 3, they are a take-me-back-to-the-window 14-1 spreadwise. Sure, Georgia's Stetson Bennett has compatible stats (3,704 passing yards, 24/6 TD/INT ratio). But his Junkyard Dawgs had to replace 15 players left for the NFL draft. Sure there were many blowout wins. There was also a Missouri game where trailed going into the 4th before pulling out a slim 26-22 win. Both are similar in YPP (Yards Per Point) margin where OSU is 1st & Georgia 3rd. As far as offensive YPG is concerned, the Bulldogs are # 1 while the Buckeyes are #2. In defensive YPG, Georgia only bests Ohio State by 12 yards. My bottom line says there certain things you just CAN'T ignore. For instance, in the 5 times the reigning champ has returned to the CFB Playoff, NONE of them have repeated. Strangely enough, the past 4 who have lost were by a margin of 15 or more. The line BEGS you to take the Bulldogs since the past 2 games @ this venue saw them win by a combined 99-30 score. However, Buckeyes' HC Ryan day is far from a slouch going 45-5 SU overall & 7-4 SU versus undefeated teams. The dagger for us looks @ a system that states: Play against a squad who won & covered in their conference title game if facing a club coming off a SU favorite loss. The past 14 seasons, this system has gone 10-0 SU & 9-1 ATS! Let's roll into the Fiesta Bowl CFB Semi-Final @ State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ to take the OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (buying to + 7 1/2) with generous pasta on the ML as my 10 Star Smart Play! Mike Handzeek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 45-24 for 65% Finishing 1st in CFB Winning % @ VTD Mike's CFB Bowl Record: 7-3 for a ruling 70%
 


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