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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CBB Final 4 Analysis/Review/ Quick Notes

Mike Handzelek's CBB Final 4 Analysis/Review/ Quick Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Apr 4, 2023
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Monday, April 03, 2023 San Diego State vs. Connecticut (NCAAB) - 9:20 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7.0/-110 Connecticut Rating: 10* Mike's NCAA Championship Play (WIN) This UConn (questing for their 5th title) looks like a freak of nature being that young & yet connecting @ such a high rate @ this venue where teams get swallowed up from the field. What impresses me is they've faced teams with many different styles & yet won comfortably by 13 or more. If they win by at least 10, that'll match teams like Villanova 2018, North Carolina 2009, Duke 2001 & Michigan State 2000 in winning 6 straight games by double-digits in the tournament. For this matchup, what caught my eye was how slow San Diego State started & how consistently good the Huskies have been in first halves. Did UConn beat any good defensive teams like San Diego State? Yes, they've beaten 2 good defensive teams convincingly in St. Mary's & Arkansas. The Aztecs defend the perimeter well & rank 3rd in defending 3-pt. attempts. The gap that I see here that can make a difference (and early) is Connecticut being 2nd in the country in offensive rebounds while San Diego State ranks way back in defensive rebounding percentage (68th) & off the offensive glass (76th) as well. The problem with the Aztecs (who've gone just 5-5 SU versus Quad 1 teams entering the tournament) is they have a higher probability of offensive droughts. In a game with 2 strong defenses (remember UConn is 8th in defensive efficiency, 11th in 2-pt. FG% defense & 15th in 3-pt. FG% defense), even a small drought can widen a gap that may not give that cold team the opportunity to make that same run. My bottom line says the UConn duo of shooting guard Jordan Hawkins & center Adama Sanogo trumps over San Diego State's equivalency of Lamont Butler & Nathan Mensah. The guys off the bench like 6'8" freshman power forward Alex Karaban gives the Huskies that added balance where the Aztecs lack. The #5 or worse seeds have gone just 1-7 SU their last 8 tries. Let's not think too much into this game but concentrate on where to strike it! We're going back to NRG Stadium to play the CONNECTICUT HUSKIES on the ML for the 1st HALF only for 10 Big Stars as my NCAA Championship Play! Saturday, April 01, 2023 Miami Florida vs. Connecticut (NCAAB) - 8:49 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +5.5/-110 Miami Florida Rating: 9* Mike's National Semi-Final Smart Play (LOSS) Even though it's status quo for UConn as a Final 4 entry at least once every decade, basketball has become a BIG deal & a BIG first for South Florida hoops with both the Florida Atlantic Owls & Miami, Fla. Hurricanes (50 miles apart) punching their tickets to the national semi-finals. The Hurricanes (29-7) under HC Jim Larranaga (39th season career) come into NRG Stadium in Houston (a tough shooting venue) as the pursuer which is a role they have thrived in when the moment fit. Larranaga's squad has been led by senior guard Isaiah Wong, 3rd-year sophomore forward Norchard Omier & 5th-year senior guard Jordan Miller. Miller was instrumental in leading Miami to a Final 4 appearance after pumping in 27 in their 88-81 Elite 8 win over Midwest Regional 2nd-seeded Texas. They key here is to come in with a Big East mentality where the Huskies absorbed most of their losses. Now in his 13th year as a HC (Rhode Island/UConn), Dan Hurley seems to get the best out of his players & are led by junior forward Adama Sanogo & sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins (who was sick Thursday & missed Friday's practice). My bottom line looks @ a rugged & resilient Miami squad that's definitely legit taking the likes of Indiana (85-69), Midwest Regional #1 seeded Houston (89-75) & Texas. The Hurricanes had a much harder journey with their opponents' seed count @ 19 compared to UConn's much easier road 31. They were down double-digits (13) versus the Longhorns & never panicked. They also have 6 players who've been to the Elite 8 more than once & will remain poised when faced with adversity. Crunching the numbers looks @ #4 seeds (UConn) going just 2-6 ATS their past 8 while Miami takes on a dominant underdog role. As a small favorite or a dog on the true road or in a neutral site game, they've gone 34-11 versus the number (76%) over the long haul -that also includes a spiffy 9-2 ATS mark as a dog (but 7-0 as a dog of 3 or more) this season. After scoring 85 points or more, the Canes' have come immediately back to cover 9 out of the last 10 instances. They sit a red-hot 18-2 when scoring 79 points or more so keep an eye on the pace & shooting percentages throughout. They get to the line often (UConn does commit a bunch of personals) & hold a 78% to 76% advantage over UConn as well as connecting on 54.5 % from 2-pt. range compared to the Huskies' 53.6%. From 3-pt. land, Miami also holds a slim 36.9% to 36.3% edge. The Hurricanes have handled teams with a winning record well over the long haul as witnessed by their 23-9-1 mark versus the number. This venue is a TOUGH shooting site as the last 30 NCAA Division I teams (in 20 seasons) who've played there have shot treys @ just 32.3% from the field which would rank them 260th amongst all teams. We'll gladly go to NRG Stadium for the nightcap game to play 9 stars on the MIAMI FLORIDA HURRICANES (buying to a key +9) as my National Semi-Final Smart Play! QUICK NOTES: It was a dream season for me but playing the meaningful games toward the end of the season was key. I'm glad all my subscribers got to see first hand that this CAN be done using my system analytics over the long haul. It was awesome going on a 26-0 run but I looked @ each pick individually & not cared about the streak. Remember, a streak can win MANY times but only loses ONCE! I'm hoping to get back on track in the NFL after hitting just 60% this past season. I'll be finishing NCAA Men's Hockey this weekend while we wait for the NBA & NHL playoffs to approach. I will proceed with caution in MLB & wait for patterns to form after 3-4 starts are in by rotations. I'll mainly use 1st Inning plays since that's where the analytics point where the HIGHEST percentage of wins will happen. Stay patient as my MLB tally from last season was 50-17 for 75%. Thanks to all subscribers, followers, the gangs in Wilkes-Barre, Northwest, Mocanaqua, King's, co-workers & closest friends who believed in the making of each successful season we've ventured through. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CBB Final Overall Record: 40-7 for a surreal 85% -- 1st in wining percentage @ VegasTopDogs

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