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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's Championship Round Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's Championship Round Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Jan 30, 2023
   
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Sunday, January 29, 2023 San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 3:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-110 San Francisco 49ers Rating: 10* Mike's NFL Post-Season Game Of The Year Inside 5 Big Plays (4 WINS-2 LOSSES) BIG weekend of plays here--but first, let's give a hats off to the 19th consecutive different NFC East champion Eagles who had a brilliant season! OC Shane Steichen, DC Jonathan Gannon & HC Nick Sirianni should be back in the playoffs again. However, they're going to be in a slugfest here & that's just the kind of game that eventually favors the visitors with the NFL's leading sack man Nick Bosa (18 1/2). The Cowboys were looking good last week too versus these same Niners but that was before SF's physical superiority began to wear them down. In Philadelphia, the Birds ran it 44 times for 268 yards versus the Giants (last in the NFC in run defense) & that marked the first time they ran for that much in the playoffs since their 14-0 NFL Championship win over the Los Angeles Rams (@ LA Memorial Coliseum) when backs Steve Van Buren, Jim Parmer & Co. ran for 274 for HC Greasy Neale of those Shibe Park days of 1949. The Eagles go to the other end of the spectrum & now face the #1 squad in run defense in San Francisco. These 2 HC's met last year @ this venue when Kyle Shanahan's squad outlasted Sirianni's group (his 1st NFL loss) by a 17-11 count with 18 of those 28 points in the 4th quarter. Yes, Philly had a total yards & YPP edge. However, a blocked FG & a 94-yard drive without scoring sealed their fate. Don't get me wrong! This team checks most of the boxes that in include: an MVP-caliber QB, excellent offensive line, a top pass defense, good coaches & a defense that's generated 75 total sacks (9 short of the 84' Bears for regular + post-season). My bottom line stresses this San Francisco defense has been CONTROLLING things for 12 games in a row! Since Brock "Mr. Irrelevant" Purdy came on the scene, they have generated 20 turnovers while SF has given back just 5. If they get another positive turnover differential game, they'll tie the 2000 Baltimore Ravens for an 11-game streak. The 49ers' offense has scored 32.6 PPG the past 8 while giving up the fewest yards (300.6) & PPG (16.3) on defense in the NFL. Guys, let's face it. Defense not only travels but wins championships! I feel the speed of LB's Fred Warner & Dre Greenlaw could make a difference since Hurts runs RPO's to the middle frequently. Last year @ the Final Four point, the Bengals @ +700 were the longshot. Right now, the Niners assume that role here @ just +300. I believe the X-Factor could be SF PK Robbie Gould. Remember, he's made every one of his 67 career playoff kicks by nailing 38 extra-point & 29 field goal attempts. Here's the perfect storm system that's hard to ignore. The past 37 years, playoff teams coming off consecutive SU & ATS wins who lost a championship game the previous year (SF) are a near-perfect 20-1 SU & ATS if favored or an underdog of 3 or less versus a squad coming off a SU & ATS win. In addition, teams that win playoff games by 28 points or more (Eagles) come back to go 8-16 ATS in their next game. Look for Purdy to eventually get later shots in play-action after Shanahan takes advantage by attacking from the edges through the C & D gaps using RB's Christian McCaffrey & Elijah Mitchell. The Philly "D" is still susceptible to zone running schemes. Also keep in mind that since the merger in 70', NFC/AFC Championships have seen the outright SU winner go 72-11-1 versus the spread. In January, SF carries a 20-6 ATS mark while Philly is just 1-5 ATS their L6. Interesting enough, Purdy gets another shot @ revenge versus Hurts for a 42-41 2019 Peach Bowl defeat when Iowa State got nipped by Oklahoma. The 49ers also carry a 7-0 spread mark in the NFC playoffs since 2019. HC Kyle Shanahan has vast coaching experience in the playoffs & has gone 7-1 ATS in 8 post-season games. We'll go to Pattison & South Broad Streets to Lincoln Financial Field (weather around 50 degrees for no factor) to play 9 Stars (buying the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS to + 7 1/2 but parlaying it with Dallas Goedert Under 69 Receiving Yards @ -137 odds) for my Play #1. Play # 2 looks @ KC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster whose averaging 28 yards over his last 4 games. Since he's received just a 9% target share over the past 3 on top of weather calling for 9 degrees with 12 MPH winds, we'll play my NFL Post-Season Game Of The Year (Double-Play) on JuJu Smith-Schuster UNDER 47 1/2 RECEIVING YARDS for 10 Stars. Play # 3 looks @ QB Jalen Hurts in a 3-team parlay. Since NO ONE back ran for 70 yards versus SF, we'll take JALEN HURTS upping it to UNDER 69 1/2 RUSHING YARDS with JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER upping it to UNDER 69 1/2 RECEIVING YARDS with playing the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS upping them to + 10 1/2 @ -117 odds for 9 Stars. Play #4 says to play JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER UNDER 4 1/2 RECEPTIONS @ -150 odds for 9 Stars. Play #5 is to combine the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS buying to + 7 1/2 in a 2-team teaser with the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS buying to + 7 1/2 for 9 Stars. NOTES: It was unfortunate to see San Francisco QB Brock Purdy (sprained UCL) go down just 8 minutes into the 1st quarter making them one-dimensional. Three fumbles, no Elijah Mitchell & no offense killed a decent SF defensive performance that saw the Philadelphia offense on the field for 15 more minutes (37 1/2 to 22 1/2) than the Niners as they ran 69 plays for just 269 total yards (3.89 YPP). Hats off to the Eagles' O-line that helped sustain drives as they rushed 44 times utilizing 4 backs (Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, Jalen Hurts & Boston Scott) for 148 yards (3.36 YPR). Overall, the 49ers + 7 1/2 was the only loser. It was an awesome weekend since my Post-Season Game Of The Year Double-Play winner on JuJu Smith-Shuster UNDER 47 1/2 RECEIVING YARDS delivered in blowout fashion as he caught 1 pass for just 7 yards! It was super sweet as Jalen Hurts only rushed for 39 yards & the Chiefs + 10 1/2 finished a nice 3-team/prop parlay. Shuster UNDER 4 1/2 receptions won easily as well as Dallas Goedert UNDER 69 RECEIVING YARDS (he had just 23). Pat Mahomes (playing hurt) still out-performed Cincinnati's Joe Burrow as he went 29-for-43 for 315 yards & 2 TD's. I felt KC's 23-year vet DC Steve Spagnuolo was successful limiting Burrow (sacked 5 times) who went 26-for-41 for 238 net yards, intercepted 2 times with just 1 TD. On the flip side, DC Lou Anarumo had no answer for limiting TE Travis Kelce (7 catches for 78 yards & 1 TD) & WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6 receptions for 116 yards & 1 TD). Get ready! This will be a dream matchup for the the Super Bowl that pits KC HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid against his former team in Philadelphia as well as the Kelce brothers going head-to-head with KC's 10-year veteran TE Travis going up against Philly's 12-year veteran Center Jason. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 NFL Overall Record: 49-33 for 60% NFL Playoffs Overall Record: 9-4 for 69% 13-3 Record L2 Super Bowls NFL Overall Record L3 Seasons Combined: 128-61 for 68%
 


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