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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 9 Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 9 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 31, 2021
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Saturday, October 30, 2021 Michigan vs. Michigan State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -190 Michigan Rating: 9* Mike's Great Lakes State Debate Play (LOSS) Jon Q. Public is speaking LOUDLY about how Michigan State's 11-2 ATS run will continue here in East Lansing. In this game, I believe the Spartans' "D" (ranked 87th) will be unequivocally exposed. Michigan (17 starters back this season-10 OFF, 7-DEF) is the sounder team that holds the "in the trenches" edge. They hold advantages in 3 key areas. The Wolverines rank 5th in the country in offensive rushing (out-rushing opponents 253 to 116), 2nd in points allowed & 11th in total yard allowed. I was impressed how the Maise N' Blue went up to Wisconsin & blew away the Badgers 38-17. How did they manage that? New DC Mike Macdonald (came over after 7 years on brother John Harbaugh defensive side with the Baltimore Ravens) has a tenacious 3-4 scheme that swarms around the football & gets penetration. My bottom line says to look for Jim Harbaugh's QB Cade McNamara to make MORE plays in the end than dark horse Heisman candidate RB Kenneth Walker of MSU. Remember, Michigan is playing with major motivation after an embarrassing 2-4 campaign that included a 27-24 loss to Michigan State in Ann Arbor last season. Let's go to the grass @ Spartan Stadium in East Lansing to confidently play the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES as my 9* Great Lakes State Debate Play! Wyoming vs. San Jose State (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-115 Wyoming Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (LOSS) Yep, we'll give these 4-3 SU Cowboys another chance @ redeeming themselves after that 17-0 debacle versus Fresno State @ home. Yes, it looks like they're struggling since they followed that loss with a Homecoming home loss versus New Mexico 14-3. I feel this change of scenery versus 4-4 SU San Jose State has merit. The Spartans didn't play like gangbusters either last week in a narrow 27-20 comeback win over the 0-7 SU UNLV Runnin' Rebels. My bottom line says it's harder to trust HC Brent Brennan's squad since backup QB Nick Nash hasn't shined like he was billed up. Yes, he's 2-2 SU since relieving the injured Nick Starkel. However, the teams he beat have a combined 1-14 SU record. SJST turns the ball over too much. They now face an opportunistic Cowboys' "D" that's 34th in points allowed, 16th in total yards allowed & 3rd in passing yards allowed. We'll be on our way to CEFCU Stadium in San Jose to play the WYOMING COWBOYS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my CFB Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Mississippi vs. Auburn (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -145 Auburn Rating: 8* Mike's Riding On Fumes Power 5 Chalk Play (WIN) There's not a lot to this play. HC Bryan Harsin has a MAJOR advantage having 2 weeks to prepare for this one. He takes on Lane Kiffin's 6-1 SU Ole Miss Rebels who just went through the SEC RINGER with consecutive games with Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee & LSU. How do they sustain themselves for 4 quarters on the SEC road against a "D" that's 26th in points allowed when their "D" is leaking right now coming in @ 78th in that same category? Auburn holds clear advantages in yards per point margin & scoring margin over the Rebels. They can still go to the SEC Championship with a win here & a win on November 27th @ home versus Alabama if they don't slip up along the way. Let's go to the grass of Jordan-Hare Stadium to play the AUBURN TIGERS as my Riding The Fumes Power 5 Chalk Play! Louisville vs. NC State (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-110 Louisville Rating: 8* Mike's Barking Out Loud Dogger (LOSS) We lost a tough last week on 5-2 SU NC State who got nipped by Miami (Florida) 31-30. The facts are clear. Defensive injuries are piling up on the Wolfpack side that forced them to make tough adjustments. I don't see an answer here for the rushing attack of the 4-3 SU 'Ville. Yes, QB Malik Cunningham isn't Lamar Jackson. However, he's pretty solid with an 8/4 TD/INT ratio to go with 1,684 passing yards while also rushing for 480 yards (5.2 YPC) & a whopping 13 TD's. He & RB Jalen Mitchell have led the way to the Cardinals averaging close to 202 YPG on the ground. My bottom line says these 2 are mirror images while also both averaging 32 PPG. With HC Dave Duerson's key LB & 2nd-leading tackler Isaiah Moore out (knee injury), everything points toward HC Scott Satterfield's visitor. Let's go to Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh on Homecoming but we'll side with the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 8* Barking Out Loud Dogger! Kentucky vs. Mississippi State (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -120 Mississippi State Rating: 8* Mike's SEC Donnybrook (WIN) This one surely promises to be a slugfest. There's no denying this has CLEARLY been a home series with the entertainer going 6-0 SU & ATS the last 6. There's a BIG revenge factor to consider. Mike Leach & Co. were embarrassed 24-2 last season by these Wildcats in Lexington. Even though 6-1 SU Kentucky is off their bye week, they've only come back to go a disappointing 1-4 ATS their last 5 with rest. Just like Penn State fit the "Bubble Burst" system (lost to Illinois after Iowa), I feel HC Mark Stoops' troops fit that same mold after being dismantled by Georgia. They not only lost DT Octavious Oxendine for the season but NG Marquan McCall has a similar leg injury. My bottom line says 4-3 SU Mississippi State QB Will Rodgers (18/7 TD/INT ratio) should be able to take advantage of a weaker pass defense (Wildcats rank 78th) with the offensives schemes of Leach. Let's go to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville to play the MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS for the "W" as my 8* SEC Donnybrook! Boston College vs. Syracuse (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -245 Syracuse Rating: 8* Mike's 8* Momentum Rider Play (WIN) While Dino Babers remains on the hot seat (4-4 SU coming in), he has his team in every game of late. The breakthrough (which I was shocked with @ VT) came when newly-inserted Sophomore QB Mississippi State transfer Garrett Shrader What I see here is BC's backup QB Dennis Grossel has lost 3 straight games (all ACC) for a team that started the season 4-0 SU (all non-conference wins). This game just doesn't add up! The Eagles are averaging over 11 PPG in ACC play & go up against an offense scoring close to 31 PPG in the conference. My bottom line points out that Syracuse with their Freshman-phenom RB Sean Tucker is ranked 8th in the country in rushing, 25th against the pass & chimes in @ 27th in total defense. Even though this smells double-digit win all over, the line has been adjusted since the Orange are 7-1 ATS & have covered 6 in a row. We'll make our adjustment as we make a road trip up Interstate 81 to Irving Avenue near Marshall Square to play the SYRACUSE ORANGE for the "W" as my 8* Momentum Rider Play! Texas vs. Baylor (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-110 Texas Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) Let's not get too into comparing SU records since 6-1 Baylor (didn't play Oklahoma & lost by 10 to OSU) holds a 2-game advantage over 4-3 Texas. The Longhorns (7th in the country in scoring-42 PPG) have been in every game (with the exception of Arkansas in Week 2) & come in off 2 consecutive one-score losses to Oklahoma & Oklahoma State. New skipper Steve Sarkisian should get his troops juiced for this one after letting one slip by letting OSU score 3 un-answered TD's in a late defeat @ Darrell Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium 2 weeks ago. My bottom line looks @ a few key numbers. "Sark The Shark" has been GOLD coming off a SU favorite loss as a HC going 7-1 both SU & ATS. Yes, both teams come in with 2 weeks to prepare. Here's what has happened to the host in this series with extra rest. The last 7 times has seen the road team go a take-me-to-the-window 6-1 ATS. I look for Texas to neutralize RB Abram Smith for HC Dave Aranda's Bears. Since these 2 are very close, we'll go to McLane Stadium in Waco to play the TEXAS LONGHORNS (buying to a key + 4 1/2) as my CFB Earlybird Dependable! Hawaii vs. Utah State (NCAAF) - 3:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -200 Utah State Rating: 9* Mike's Mountain West Game Of The Week (WIN) There's a big disadvantage here with Todd Graham's 4-4 SU Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (iffy situation @ QB with in-experienced backup Freshman Brayden Schager) coming to the mainland for the 5th time (1-3 SU so far). Playing a morning game (biologically with time zone change) in the high altitude of Logan will be tough challenges to overcome. They've gone 4-8 SU & ATS travelling to the mountains. On the flip side we find new HC Blake Anderson who takes over after the Aggies went 1-5 SU last season. He inherited 19 returning starters (10-OFF, 9-DEF) which has paid dividends so far for the current leaders (5-2 overall) of the Mountain Division of the MWC. My bottom line says the Aggies have owned Hawaii (5-0 SU & ATS since 2011) & I don't see that changing here! Let's roll to astroturf @ Maverik Stadium in Logan to play the UTAH STATE AGGIES for the "W" as my 9* Mountain West Game Of The Week! Purdue vs. Nebraska (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -290 Nebraska Rating: 8* No Risk It, No Biscuit Big Ten Play (LOSS) It hasn't been too successful for HC Scott frost since coming to Lincoln after coaching @ Central Florida. I feel his 3-5 SU with the Huskers' this season is misleading all losses were by 1 score. QB Adrian Martinez (10/3 TD/INT ratio) hasn't played badly. In fact, they're ranked 11th in the country in total yards. My bottom line looks @ the Nebraska defense that's produced 8 INT's & yielded 9 TD passes in 8 games. They take on a Purdue O'Line that got eaten up @ Wisconsin where their backs finished with a -13 yards rushing for the day in a 30-13 loss. The Boliermakers come off 2 physical games back-to-back with Iowa & Wisconsin. You know we're riding to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln to play the fresher NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS as my 8* No Risk It, No Biscuit Big Ten Play! NOTES: Another Saturday where things were looking bright didn't wind up that way. With Michigan up 30-14, Louisville winning outright in the 4th, Texas winning late & getting points & Nebraska winning as well, an 8-1 looked promising. All 4 turned out losers in the end for a 4-5 day. CFB remains a losing proposition this season & is the most in-consistent I've seen it in a decade. Nevertheless, we're moving on to Sunday where things are moving in the right direction. Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 9 Record: 4-5 for 45% Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Overall Record: 25-26 for a head-scratching 49%

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