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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 9 Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 1, 2020
   
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Notre Dame vs. Georgia Tech (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 21/-115 Georgia Tech Rating: 8* Mike's Traditional Look-Ahead Dogger (WIN) The Fighting Irish of HC Brian Kelly have to be a little frustrated with the pollsters (who seriously have little idea how to accurately rank teams) after getting bumped from their No. 3 status by an Ohio State team playing their first game. I believe there's not much they can do to impress the pollsters in this game since everything will be said next week in South Bend. The odd-makers rate both Georgia & ND a 20/1 shot to grab the 4th position of the College Football Playoff. This matchup goes way back to 1922 & the Irish hold a 28-6-1 series advantage. The Ramblin' Wreck were actually an SEC from the early 30's through 1964 but left it because of Rule 140 (dealt with the number of scholarships). So this series runs much deeper than the "Daniel Rudy Ruettiger Game" @ ND back in 1975. This game appears to be a blow out since the Yellow Jackets (with 3 turnovers) come in off a 48-27 defeat @ Boston College AND Notre Dame comes in off a 45-3 pounding of Pittsburgh @ Heinz Field. However, this is GT's SUPER Bowl since it won't be playing rival Georgia @ the end of the season. Both teams own wins over Florida State & Louisville this season with GT winning over both as an underdog. My bottom line says Notre Dame qualifying for the 5-0 SU 40-year old system that holds a 60-31-1 point spread advantage (see my Georgia State selection) & having a home game with #1 Clemson on deck will be hard to overcome point spread-wise for 4 quarters. Look for QB Jeff Sims to make amends off of last week's poor performance & puts some points on the scoreboard. Let's go to that Bermuda grass @ Bobby Dodd Stadium to play the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (buying to + 21 1/2) as my 8* Traditional Look-Ahead Dogger! Texas vs. Oklahoma State (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-110 Texas Rating: 9* Mike's Big 12 Game Of The Week (WIN) Make NO mistake about it, Texas QB Sam Ehlinger will be the BEST signal-caller the Okie State defense will face all season. Despite the Longhorns not qualifying for the 4-team playoff with their 2 losses, they still can grab a date for the Big 12 Championship by running the table & getting some help. Ehlinger is definitely the real deal with 62% completions & 1,481 passing yards for 17 TD's (74 TD passes the past 2+ seasons). The Hook'em Horns (with a battle-tested 3-2 SU record) come in averaging 54 PPG away from Austin. His opposition with sophomore QB Spencer Sanders (13 INT's in 278 passing attempts) remains in question after facing a vanilla schedule thus far. Can Mike Gundy's "O" match Ehlinger score for score as the game winds down? They'll be hard-pressed! Number crunching further reveals HC Tom Herman is excellent in the dog role as his teams sport a take-me-to-the-window 16-5 record ATS including 11 outright upsets. The Burnt Orange will be looking for revenge for a 38-35 nail-biting loss @ this venue 2 years ago. In addition, the last 39 Longhorns' games have been dog-laden as the pups have gone 26-12-1 versus the number. My bottom line says we'll gladly take a live dog that has the higher power rating of the 2. Texas Co-DC's Chris Ash & Coleman Hutzler have 9 defensive starters back this season & should be able to force the 4-0 SU Cowboys to throw if RB Chubba Hubbard is neutralized. With Ehlinger (who holds the keys to the Ferrari) behind center & 9 defenders back, it's hard to picture this team with 3 losses. With Oklahoma State having a re-match with intra-state rival Oklahoma just around the corner, I'm ready to go to Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater to play the TEXAS LONGHORNS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my Big 12 Game Of The Week! Saturday, October 31, 2020 Coastal Carolina vs. Georgia State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-105 Georgia State Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Kudos most definitely go out to HC Jamey Chadwell for the job he's done thus far in Conway with the Chanticleers. However, things are a LITTLE bit different this week since they'll take to the road for the 1st time as a ranked football team. They got by Georgia Southern 28-14 @ Brooks Stadium last week despite starting QB Grayson McCall going down with an injury. For this one, I believe this unique pressure spot will be felt by backup Fred Payton who was previously benched last season for under-performance due to a shoulder injury. On the flip side of the coin, motivation will be high for the upset as HC Shawn Elliott is fresh off getting a contract extension through the 2025 season. His group is scoring 40 PPG @ home this season & his up-tempo rushing attack (average 5.0 yards per rush) will control the clock & put added pressure on the Chanticleers as the second half develops. The Panthers have revenge for a 37-34 loss @ this venue 2 years ago. My bottom line takes into account this fact using a 40-year old system. 5-0 SU teams FAVORED by less than 21 off a double-digit point spread win have come back in Game 6 to go a ticket-ripping 31-60-1 against the number. The oddsmakers have also under-valued Georgia State @ home of late as witnessed by them covering 6 of the last 7. That situation arrives again as the public as fell in love with Coastal Carolina & their record MORE than examining the facts. Let's rumble to Atlanta's Georgia Stadium to pound the GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS (buying to + 4 1/2) & sprinkling a little bit on the ML as my CFM Public Missed Perception Play! Missouri vs. Florida (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 14/-110 Missouri Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play (LOSS) The perception of Missouri has not quite caught up with the power ratings has Mizzou @ 47 while the bettor rating is way down @ 69th. Why the 2-2 SU Tigers? 1st-year HC & also OC Eli Drinkwitz (coached Appalachian State last year) has them playing some inspired football featuring many looks of un-balanced offensive lines. Drinkwitz is happy he kept DC Ryan Walters on board from the old regime. The last 2 games, Missouri upset the national champion L.S.U. Tigers 45-41 & shut down Kentucky 20-10 after holding the ball for over 43 minutes (running 92 plays) & holding a 421 to 145 edge in total yards. On the flip side, we have a talented Florida squad who hasn't played or practiced for 2 weeks due to COVID-19 issues. My bottom line points out that HC Drinkwitz seizes the moment in the dog role where his teams have cashed in on 6 of 7 situations in that role. Other numbers that support our cause is the Tigers holding a decisive edge in the head-to-head meetings (4-1 SU) & versus the number (5-0). If we look @ the Gators playing with rest angle, the database shows HC Dan Mullen is a looking proposition going just 4-8 versus the number. I feel not playing for the first time in 3 weeks while also disrupting player chemistry (players switched around or out) clearly gives the edge to the away dog here. Let's go to Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville to play the MISSOURI TIGERS (buying to + 17 1/2) as my 8* CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play! Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 9 Record: 2-2 50% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 12-8 for 60%
 


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