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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 8 Analysis/Review/Quick Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 24, 2022
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Saturday, October 22, 2022 Akron vs. Kent State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +16/-110 Akron Rating: 8* Mike's MAC Daddy Weekender Play (WIN) It's been a tough last 2 nights with a QB injury yet again & a 4 TO night/loss by a FG. The line is drawn & the winning streak starts here where the 1-6 SU Akron Zips meet the 2-5 SU Kent State Golden Flashes. While Joe Moorhead's squad has given up 83 points their past 2 (defense ranks 121st), Sean Lewis' charges have yielded 79 in that same time frame (defense ranks 117th). I believe the motivational of the Golden Flashes (only 4 offensive starters back this season) won't be sky high after taking a major hit when they blew a big lead to Toledo last week. I'm banking that will carry over here making it tough for a 3+ TD blowout they are accustomed to in this matchup called the "Wagon Wheel" rivalry. The Zips have already played Liberty tough on the road losing in the end 21-12 & lost a close decision to Central Michigan 28-21 last week. My bottom line says it's difficult to lay a bunch of points when your defense has given up 400+ yards to every MAC team its faced thus far. Let's go to Dix Stadium in Kent, OH to play the AKRON ZIPS (buying to + 17 1/2) as my 8 Star MAC Daddy Weekender Play! Toledo vs. Buffalo (NCAAF) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +7/-110 Buffalo Rating: 9* Back This MAC Momentum Grabber (WIN) While the Toledo Rockets appear in command (5-2 SU overall) of the MAC West Division @ 3-0, today's opponent is coming in with a great head of steam winning their last 4 in a row (4-3 SU) but more importantly lead the MAC East Division also with a 3-0 SU mark. Yes, these same Buffalo Bulls of HC Maurice "Mo" Linguist (was a defensive coach with the Dallas Cowboys before coming over from being co-DC with Michigan to this job last season) are blistering with confidence behind the arm of QB Cole Snyder (1,662 passing yards with an 11/5 TD/INT ratio) & the running game who've tallied 194 YPG over the last 4. Snyder has 2 dependable wideouts that can get separation from defenders in Justin Marshall (471 yards receiving & 5 TD's) & Quian Williams (413 receiving yards & 4 TD's). Crunching the numbers show the Bulls excel as a home dog going a superb 12-4-1 ATS. Adding to the solidity of this play is finding Buffalo being a near-perfect 8-0-1 versus the number when up against a squad that's coming off both a SU & ATS win as a favorite. They have ruled this series winning the last 3 ATS @ this venue & have covered 5 of the last 6 meetings. Let's STORM into UB Stadium to play the BUFFALO BILLS (buying to + 10 1/2) as my 9 Star Back This MAC Momentum Grabber! BYU vs. Liberty (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +7/-115 Liberty Rating: 9* Mike's Independent Game Of The Week (WIN) These are definitely 2 out of the top 3 independent teams in the FBS. For this matchup, BYU QB Jaren Hall is banged up after a shoulder bruise he took in their 52-35 loss to Arkansas last week. The Mormons have been habitually over-priced of late riding an 0-5 ATS run. In this Holy War, it's hard to ignore Hugh Freeze & Co who've been lights-out @ home since his arrival here in 19' going 18-3 SU. Speaking of 19', that was the same rookie season for Freeze that the Flames invaded Provo only to leave on the short end of a 31-24 score (teams combined 902 yards of total offense). Backing Freeze (whose also the offensive play-caller) has been a habitually return to the window going 26-11 ATS in a dog role & is also 6-1 versus the pointspread up against teams Cougs' HC Kalani Sitake (4-3 SU this year) hasn't been too dependable as an away favorite since coming to Provo 7 seasons ago. His 8-11 spread mark in that category speaks louder than words. My bottom line says things can only get better for Liberty as they might get back the ex-Baylor/Utah & now Flames' QB Charlie Brewer. I question B.Y.U.'s motivation making their 1st trip to the east coast since their Week 1 trip @ South Florida. Since these same Flames chalk up 181 YPG on the ground, this pick fits like a glove since knowing the BYU defense has given up 716 yards rushing the past 3 games. Solidifying it tighter finds the Cougars a perfect 0-4 ATS as a road favorite when coming off a SU loss. Let's jet to Lynchburg's Williams Stadium to hop all over the LIBERTY FLAMES (buying to a key 10 1/2) as my 9 Star Independent Game Of The Week! Utah State vs. Wyoming (NCAAF) - 9:45 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +5/-110 Utah State Rating: 8* Mike's 8 Star Mountain West Eliminator Play (LOSS) This game has serious post-season ramifications attached to it as both teams enter @ 2-1 SU - a full 1-game behind Mountain West Conference Mountain Division leader Boise State. I feel taking a Utah State squad has merit considering that the Wyoming offense ranks a bottom of the barrel 121st out of 131 teams (Utah State -90th) while also weighing in @ 78th (Utah State -70th) in total defense. If they get behind, the Cowboys' pass offense is in trouble as they rank a very distant 122nd. This "Battle For Bridger Rifle" game has deep roots going back to 1903 when the Aggies blew out the Cowboys 43-0. I love the fact that Blake Anderson's (2nd season & is 14-7 SU) team comes in with Big Time Revenge for a 44-17 trouncing @ the hands of Wyoming @ Maverik Stadium in Logan last season. Usually home field has its advantages, but these same Cowboys under HC Craig Bohl (9th season) have only compiled a 12-11 spread mark during his current tenure. His team has also played down to the competition as they've dropped the past 4 of 5 times ATS when taking on a team with a losing road record. This pointspread winner should come down to the effectiveness of USU backup QB Bishop Davenport & RB Calvin Tyler (342 yards rushing his past 3). My bottom line points directly @ the Cowboys' ineptitude as a specified home favorite where they chime in @ a no-show 3-11-1 versus the number when they have a better record than their opponent AND playing a club coming off a SU & ATS victory. The dagger for us looks @ a subset involving HC Blake Anderson. IF he's coming off a SU win AND his team is carrying a .500 or losing record, he's been the purest of money going 12-1 SU & a take-me-to-the-window 11-2 pointspread-wise when playing in a conference game for his career. Get FIRED UP as we go to War Memorial Stadium in Laramie to play the UTAH STATE AGGIES (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 8 Star Mountain West Eliminator Play! Friday, October 21, 2022 UAB vs. Western Kentucky (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: 105 UAB Rating: 9* Mike's Live ML Dogger Play (LOSS) These 2 met last in 2020 with UAB pulling out a decisive home victory over Western Kentucky 37-14. Now, HC Bill Clark (7th season) & his 4-2 SU Blazers come into Bowling Green, KY with a super-talented backfield (rank 8th in the country in rushing) of RB's Dewayne McBride (778 rushing yards, 6.7 YPC, 11 TD's) & Jermaine Brown (418 yards rushing, 6.3 YPC, 3 TD's) that makes things easier for QB Dylan Hopkins (1,170 passing yards, 6/2 ratio, 109 rushing yards, 2 TD's). On the other side of the ball, the Alabama-Birmingham pass defense (ranked 14th in the country) matches up nicely with HC Tyson Helton's Hilltoppers' pass-dependent offense. QB Austin Reed (whose far from last season's sensation Bailey Zappe who passed for close to 6,000 yards & 62 TD's) has padded his stats mostly on bottom-feeders like the 131st-ranked Florida International Panthers (chalked up 688 total yards) when they smoked them 73-0. Crunching the numbers show UAB is a superb 7-1 ATS versus team with a winning record &6-1 versus the number in their last 7 road games versus a team with a winning home record. Besides being road tough cashing 6 of their last 8 travelers @ the window, they've snapped back with lasting power off an ATS loss covering the next game @ a 18-6-2 clip over the long haul. This is an elimination game for the Conference USA post-season berth (both teams are currently 2-1 SU in the conference) as the winner should be playing the UTSA Roadrunners in the championship on Friday, December 2nd (6 days after the regular season ends) @ a site TBD. With the public one-sides on WKU (66% of the ATS bets) let's get ready to DIVE into this one as we go to field turf of Houchens Industries - L.T. Smith Stadium to play the ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM BLAZERS with mucho pasta sprinkled on the ML as my 9 Star Live ML Dogger Play! Thursday, October 20, 2022 Virginia vs. Georgia Tech (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -3.5/-110 Georgia Tech Rating: 8* Mike's 8 Star ACC Game Of The Week (LOSS) Hats off to the Ramblin' Wreck brass who fired HC Geoff Collins (10-28 SU overall there) after their 1-3 SU start. What have they done since then? They went to Pittsburgh (ACC Champions) & pulled out a 26-21 win as 21-point pups. Their last game (2 weeks ago) saw them go OT before dismantling then 4-1 Duke by a 23-20 count. What can we attribute this turnaround by interim HC Brent Key (was an O-Line Coach with Alabama for 3 seasons)? He went to a very successful ground & pound game plan that not only controlled the clock but kept their "D" fresh for the later stages. In his 2 games as HC, Key's squad ran the ball 81 times for 412 yards. The Yellow Jackets "D" limited Pitt & Duke to a collective 248 for a superior advantage. My bottom line says it's hard to ignore the home team in this series is a lights-out 19-4 SU the last 23 meetings. I love the way the GT defense is holding their opponents to 86 YPG under their season average (18th-ranked in the FBS). Combine that with a Wahoos' offense (with just 4 starters back this season) that has only averaged 17.8 PPG under 1st-year HC Tony Elliott (was OC @ Clemson the past 6 years). The Cavaliers have under-achieved this far going 2-4 SU & just 1-5 ATS. Motivation is high as a win here & triumphs versus Virginia Tech & Miami could earn them bowl eligibility (last bowl game was in 2018). Let's confidently go to the "Bermuda Grass" @ Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta to play the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (buying to -2) as 8 Star ACC Game Of The Week! NOTES: It started out on Thursday & Friday as tough luck with star QB of Georgia Tech Jeff Sims going down with an injury in the 2nd quarter. Backup Zach Gibson could only muster 99 yards on a 10-25 job in relief. UAB suffered a 14-point swing when a fumble was returned to the UAB 5 wound up turning a win into a loss 20-17. Saturday returned to winning dominant fashion as Akron (we were getting 17 1/2) jetted out 10-0 before getting nipped by 6 in the end. Buffalo (we were getting 10 1/2) won OUTRIGHT scoring 27 second-half points in a 34-27 triumph. Liberty (we were getting 10 1/2) scored 38 unanswered points & shocked BYU in a 41-14 final. While in was a rare mushes weekend in the NFL, CFB has been a very profitable season. See you in Week 9! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 15-7 for a not-too-shabby 68%!

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