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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 6 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 10, 2021
   
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Saturday, October 09, 2021 Georgia Southern vs. Troy (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -5.5/-110 Troy Rating: 9* Mike's Tricky Sun Belt Optimizer (WIN off the buy) The 2-3 SU Troy Trojans remain 1/2 game behind Georgia Southern Eagles in the standings of the Sun Belt. For this one, I don't see how newly-inserted HC Kevin Whitley's 127th-ranked out of 130 defense (whose also missing their best defender in the secondary) slows down the Troy offense (played South Carolina tough before losing 23-14) @ this venue. I love the revenge factor in this Sun Belt matchup that saw GSU win a nail-biter @ Paulson Stadium in Statesboro by a 20-13 count LY. My bottom line says we'll gladly back a Trojans' squad that's allowing a super-stingy 98 YPG on the ground TY. Let's go to the state of Alabama to Veterans Memorial Stadium to play the TROY TROJANS (buying down to - 2 1/2) as my 9* Tricky Sun Belt Optimizer! TCU vs. Texas Tech (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-110 Texas Tech Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Habitually Over-Rated Ticket Ripper Play (LOSS) I think the mushes have definitely fell in love with what once was a team to be reckoned with in the TCU Horned Frogs. HC Gary Patterson (21st year) has had some excellent squads in the past (went 12-1 in 2014, 11-2 SU in 2015 & 11-3 SU in 2017). However, recent editions of the past 2+ seasons have fell into mediocrity going just 13-13 SU. Since 2016, TCU backers have lost their shirts going a ticket-ripping 26-39-1 ATS. Patterson's opposition tonight is HC Matt Wells (3rd year) whose 3-2 SU Red Raiders are fresh off 23-20 upset win (as 7 1/2-point dogs) @ West Virginia. My bottom line says the home team is ripe for the picking catching T.C.U. in a proverbial sandwich. The Horned Frogs are coming off of Texas & have a bigger game on deck next week @ Oklahoma. We'll certainly scoop up the points as we go Jones AT&T Stadium to play the double-revenge edged TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 8* CFB Habitually Over-Rated Ticket Ripper Play! LSU vs. Kentucky (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-105 LSU Rating: 9* Mike's Riding On Fumes Power-5 Dogger (LOSS) I strongly believe 5-0 SU Kentucky comes into this fat & happy after a long overdue 20-13 upset win over the Florida Gators. Mark Stoops team left a lot of gas on that field as they registered their 2nd win in 35 tries versus Florida & 1st win over them in Lexington since 1986! The key here is to examine these Wildcats (12 starters back TY) after their tussles with the Gators. The last 41 times, Kentucky has come back to go just 14-27 SU after battles with Florida. My bottom line says LSU (whose HC Ed Orgeron is on the hot seat in Baton Rouge) has the better & fresher squad here (18 starters back). The Wildcats face the 4th time in 41 years they've opened the season @ 5-0. The previous 3 times Kentucky has started this fast has saw them come back in Game 6 to go 0-3 SU & ATS. The dagger for us examines the database which examines home chalk who come off a SU home win as dogs of 7 or more. If taking on a team .600 or better in this given situation, the past 6 seasons have seen home chalk come back to go a silent 1-13 ATS. Look for Bayou Bengals to get a "W" with everything factored in. Let's go to Kroger Field in Lexington to play the L.S.U. TIGERS (buying to + 3 1/2 but sprinkle a heavy dose of pasta on the ML) as my 9* Riding On Fumes Power-5 Dogger! West Virginia vs. Baylor (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -135 Baylor Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (WIN) I'm going to get down to a more fundamental handicapping style in colleges since the mushes have been fluctuating week-to-week. I feel there's 2 things NOT on the Mountaineers' side. One, they seem to self-destruct in the end. Two, they play a Baylor squad that is ranked 6th in the nation in yards per play margin @ 2.47. My bottom line points to HC Dave Aranda (2nd season) whose turned the program around from a dismal 2020 season where they finished 2-7. He returns 17 starters (10 on defense) & is playing with revenge for a 27-21 OT loss @ Morgantown last year. The irony of it all was the Bears' hanging around to OT despite 4 turnovers in that game. We getting a decent price here knowing West Virginia has habitually come up short in the underdog role going 9-18 their last 27. Let's go to Waco's McLane Stadium to play the BAYLOR BEARS as my 9* CFB Earlybird Dependable. Arkansas vs. Mississippi (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5/-110 Arkansas Rating: 9* Mike's SEC Dog Of The Day (WIN) I love the 4-1 SU Hogs' in this situation after being humiliated 37-0 by an SEC upper-tier squad of Georgia. Yes, we'll buck heads with Heisman hopeful Ole Miss QB Matt Corral knowing that Arkansas is always under-priced by the oddsmakers in this series. Arky has covered the last 7 of 8 & has won outright 5 of the last 7 including a 28-14 win in Fayetteville (Corral threw 6 INT's). 2nd-year HC Sam Pittman has his team 4-1 SU out of the gates. My bottom line says the Razorbacks "D (10 starters back from a 3-7 group last season) shows up against the right competition as they've held their opponents to under 154 total yards under their average. I feel taking the right amount of points creates a very live dog situation in a game where both teams look to right the ship off loses last week. The analytics point straight to the visitor whose a not-too-shabby 8-3 as a road dog of less than 10. Mississippi is over-priced again as witnessed by their ticket-ripping 1-5 ATS record when playing with conference revenge. Let's go to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford to play the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 9* SEC Dog Of The Day! Oklahoma vs. Texas (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-115 Texas Rating: 8* Mike's Big 12 Attention Grabber (WIN off the buy) This Red River Rivalry contest for the Golden Hat will be the 117th meeting (Texas leads 62-49-5) that was nothing but a thriller last season when it took 4 OT's before Oklahoma (5-0 SU this year) came away with a 53-45 triumph. New HC Steve Sarkisian (came over from being Alabama's OC the past 2 years) has his team 4-1 SU this season. The Longhorns' offense has been dynamic piling up 557 YPG & scoring 53 PPG over their last 3. I feel the Sooners can be had & almost did against Nebraska (23-16 in Week 3) & West Virginia (16-13 in Week 4). I'm not selling Lincoln Riley's team short but there's a number I feel that gives us an optimum spread advantage. So let's go to Dallas to play the TEXAS LONGHORNS (buying to our number + 7 1/2) as my Big 12 Attention Grabber! Wake Forest vs. Syracuse (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -230 Wake Forest Rating: 9* ACC Upgrader (WIN) It's going to be really hard for Syracuse HC Dino Babers to compensate for the loss of leading pass catcher Taj Harris who entered into the transfer portal. There's only so much new QB Garrett Shrader (transferred from Mississippi State) can do with limited playmakers. This is especially true since the lineups have changed slightly since the Demon Deacons came to the Carrier Dome last year & won a lopsided 38-14 affair. HC Dave Clawson has his team on high octane (5-0 SU & 3-0 in the ACC) with all 11 offensive starters back including QB Sam Hartman who has a stellar TD/INT ratio of 11/2. In the end, Syracuse will not have an answer for when RB Christian Beal-Smith gets chunks of yardage down the stretch. We'll jet up I-81 to the Carrier Dome to play the WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS as my 9* ACC Upgrader Play! Texas San Antonio vs. Western Kentucky (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-115 Texas San Antonio Rating: 10* Mike's 10* CFB Strongest Game On The Board (WIN) I'll sing this til' the cows come home. This UTSA squad (5-0 SU this season) has playmakers galore! They have 21 of 22 starters back on a senior-laden team that'll make a lot more noise before this campaign is over. We had them @ Illinois in an outright win over the Fighting Illini & we're grabbing them again this week. They proved they could take a punch when they trailed Memphis 21-0 on the road 2 weeks ago before rallying for a 31-28 win. How did they do it? They get a lot of things done with a rushing defense that limits opponents to 73 YPG. That's a big gap when compared to the 1-3 SU Hilltoppers' rushing "D" (just 4 starters back) that gives a whopping 217 YPG. My bottom line says HC Tyson Helton (3rd-year) doesn't do well against elite winning oppositions (.750 or better) as witnessed by a no-show 1-5 SU record. Let's roll to Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green to play a strong 10 Stars on the TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO ROADRUNNERS as my CFB Strongest Game On The Board! NOTES: It was an excellent day for the deepest CFB card to date that went a strong 6-2 with a BIG 10 Star win on UTSA. Two buy-point games came into play as we bought past the key numbers of 7 & 3 to get the W's on Texas & Troy. After a very bad start, we're catching fire going 7-2 the last 9. Check out articles for accurate past records week-to-week as the VTD system does not reflect buy points in figuring out true W's & L's. Thanks to all my loyal followers & subscribers who understand it takes a little bit to establish & correlate numbers, mushes' tendencies to form consistent analytics. Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Overall Record: 13-13 for a climbing 50%
 


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