Saturday, October 07, 2023
Fresno State vs. Wyoming (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: +6/-110 Wyoming Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Saturday Public Missed Perception Play (WIN)
It APPEARS (and I use that term loosely) that Fresno State has the upper hand since the Bulldogs have decisive wins over these Cowboys since 18' by scores of 27-3, 17-0 & last season's 30-0 count @ Valley Children's Stadium in Fresno. Yes, HC Jeff Tedford (5th season here but coached Cal for 11 years prior) has jumped out 5-0 SU this season & is riding high into this one. However, sometimes things don't work out as they appear. That especially holds true for John Q. Public. Let's look @ some crystal clear tangible evidence of just that. Fresno State beat FBS teams like Purdue, Arizona State (with a 4th-string QB), Kent State & Nevada by an average of 23.5 PPG. Those teams have a combined record of 4-16 SU. The lone FCS squad they faced saw them taking on the Eastern Washington Eagles (who were 30-point dogs) that resulted in a hard-fought 34-31 OT win. In summary, the Bulldogs (with just 4 returning offensive starters) faced the 108th (out of 133) easiest schedule of which teams ranked 124th in scoring offense, 128th in rushing defense & 124th in scoring defense. After facing that weak of a schedule, Fresno State ranks a distant 106th in rushing offense. I feel their offense relies too heavily on the arm of UCF transfer QB Mikey Keene (averages close to 300 YPG passing, 36.4 PPG). On the flip side of that coin, HC Craig Bohl has his squad @ 4-1 SU & played a much tougher schedule. In the process, they've already taken down Texas Tech 35-33 & Appalachian State 22-19 with a lone loss to #2 Texas (played them close to even for 3 quarters). QB Andrew Peasley has some good playmakers to work with in RB Harrison Waylee & WR Ayir Asante. My bottom line says the true X-factor (in a game that looks to be a defensive one) is K John Hoyland. Arguably the BEST kicker in the country, Hoyland kicked 4 FG's last week versus New Mexico that represented the 4th time he's done it in his 2 1/2-season career. Let's look @ some key numbers. The Bulldogs are a perfect 0-5 ATS in their first of back-to-back road games. As conference favorites of less than 7, they chime in @ a ticket-ripping 2-5 versus the number. The Cowboys are an excellent 6-1 spreadwise after New Mexico & is a 7-2 ATS before Air Force. How does Wyoming do in the role of home underdog? Let's try a take-me-back-to-the-window 8-2 versus the spread (11-4 in the Mountain West). The DAGGER for us HAS to be the pace of this game. Bohl is a very deliberate HC in that category as his squad has the 7th slowest offensive plays per game @ just 59.4 with a nifty 182 RY per game, a clear 21 plays slower than Division I, FBS leader Penn State @ 80.6. Our stage is set as we travel to War Memorial Stadium in Laramie to play the WYOMING COWBOYS (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -150) with a little pasta on the ML as my 9 Star CFB Saturday Public Missed Perception Play!
Mike Handzelek's 2023-24 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 7-2 for 78% +1,850 units
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