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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 5 Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 3, 2021
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Saturday, October 2, 2021 Oregon vs. Stanford (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 8/-105 Stanford Rating: 9* Mike's PAC-12 Shocker Play (WIN) The 3rd-ranked Oregon Ducks have lulled themselves to sleep the past 2 weeks with cream puff wins over Stony Brook 48-7 & Arizona 41-19. While the 4-0 SU Green & Gold played excellent in a 35-28 upset win @ Ohio State in Week 2 (14 1/2-point dogs), they have lost all 3 tries when favored. Enter HC David Shaw's Stanford entry into the picture. The Cardinal usually respond in a big way off a SU loss & that's exactly where they sit off a 35-24 home loss to U.C.L.A. (QB Mills sat out in Covid protocol). There's numbers to support them as well. In the past 21 years, Stanford is a stellar 24-9 ATS versus tough defenses that allow more than 17.25 yards per point. David Shaw & Co. chime in with a perfect 7-0 ATS record their last 7 games versus undefeated opponents. Since Shaw (who surpassed Pop Warner as the winningest HC on "The Farm") came in to coach the Cardinal 11 years ago, he's gone a take-me-to-the-window 13-4 ATS IF installed as a underdog of 4 or more. These numbers don't add up as even though Oregon is ranked 3rd, their defense is ranked 100th giving up an average of 423 yards per game. I'm not banking on the return of the Ducks' DE Kayvon Thibodeaux swaying this game to a blowout. Let's go up to the Farm (Stanford Stadium) to play the STANFORD CARDINAL +8 as my PAC-12 Shocker Play! Arkansas State vs. Georgia Southern (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-110 Arkansas State Rating: 9* Mike's 9* Sun Belt Game Of The Week (LOSS) Things have really been shook up in Statesboro as 5th-year HC Chad Lunsford (28-21 SU since becoming HC in 17') has been fired. Serving as interim will be their CB's Coach Kevin Whitley. He'll be taking on Arkansas State (1-3 SU) whose been pretty respectable losing to Memphis 55-50 @ home while losing 41-34 @ Tulsa last week. I feel the Red Wolves are under-achieving for 1st-year HC Butch Jones (84-54 career @ Central Michigan/Cincinnati & Tennessee). They are built for shootouts & benefit from playing an Eagles' squad averaging 16.5 PPG. In addition, Arkansas State (5 Sun Belt Conference titles the past 10 years) shows up when dressed as dogs covering the last 6 of 8 tries. With Georgia Southern in transition, it doesn't hurt knowing they've struggled of late versus losing teams dropping 3 of their last 5. My bottom line says we'll gladly side with the team with the better QB. Red Wolves' signal-caller James Blackman has a solid 6/1 TD/INT ratio & has passed for 972 yards/134.5 passer rating. Let's roll down to Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Statesboro to play the visiting ARKANSAS RED WOLVES (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 9* Sun Belt Game Of The Week! Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-110 Georgia Tech Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) The Ramblin' Wreck are just 2 plays from going 4-0 SU entering this game. They opened ACC play 2 games ago on the road @ Clemson. They gave the Tigers more than they can handle & nearly pulled it out in the end. HC Geoff Collins' squad is for real out-gaining Clemson 309-284 despite coming out on the short end 14-8 (covering as 28-point dogs). Last week, the Yellow Jackets traveled to Chapel Hill & humbled the Tar Heels 45-22 (held them to 63 rushing yards) after NC put up 59 on Virginia. They take on a Pittsburgh team that isn't going to put up 77 points with 700+ yards of offense like they did last week against New Hampshire. Let's go to the "Bermuda Grass" of Bobby Dodd Stadium to play the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 9* CFB Earlybird Dependable! Boston College vs. Clemson (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 14.5/-110 Boston College Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Barking Out Loud Dogger (WIN) I'm afraid HC Dabo Swinney is experiencing some heavy Trevor Lawrence fall out this season. The 2-2 SU Tigers have just 5 returning starters on offense to a team that had to score 24 unanswered points to pull out a 34-28 win over Boston College @ Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. I feel last week's 27-21 OT loss @ North Carolina State took more than just the wind out of the sails. It's a BIG psychologic let-down knowing that their 2nd loss of the season kind of eliminates them from qualifying for the CFB Playoffs for a 7th straight time. That loss also puts the Purple & Orange in jeopardy of qualifying for the ACC Championship, a place where they hold six straight titles. My bottom line says HC Jeff Hafley (2nd season) has a dependable RB in Pat Garwo whose rushed for 412 yards & good for 6.3 YPR. I feel the Eagles can make things very uncomfortable for the home team whose won 10 in a row versus them & currently hold the nation's longest home winning streak @ 30. It's hard to ignore BC's super-solid ATS record as an away underdog of 16-5-1. Let's go to Memorial Stadium in Clemson to play the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES as my CFB Barking Out Loud Dogger! Arizona State vs. UCLA (NCAAF) - 10:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-110 Arizona State Rating: 9* Mike's Top Coaching Edge Play (WIN) I've been on the wrong side of this a few times & can't pass up a chance @ making amends. Don't think Arizona State HC Herm "Miracle In The Meadowlands" Edwards won't pass up the chance @ dialing up constant pressure out of their 4-3 scheme to frustrate the already-injured U.C.L.A. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Edwards has the healthier QB in Jayden Daniels who passed for 265 yards (21-for-29) & ran for 75 more plus 2 TD's in a 35-13 win (as 14-point favorites) over Colorado last week. ASU is dressing up as an underdog for this one where they've gone a consistent 16-7-1 versus the number (11-4 under Edwards) since 16'. This series represents double-revenge for the Sun Devils who lost to the Bruins 25-18 & 42-32 the past 2 seasons. This game could prove to be the decider of the PAC-12 South since U.S.C. & Utah has slipped up a few times this season. Numbers don't lie as the Uclans are a ticket-ripping 3-11 ATS when installed as favorites of less than a TD. The dagger for us has to be U.C.L.A. HC Chip Kelly whose a perfect 0-9 SU in his own backyard taking on an opponent off a SU win. We can't pass up ASU playing with conference revenge & being a dog of less than a TD. They're a perfect 5-0 ATS when matched up with that scenario. Let's go to the legendary grass of the Rose Bowl to play the ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 9* Top Coaching Edge Play! Appalachian State vs. Georgia State (NCAAF) - 2:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 10/-110 Georgia State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Ugly Pig Dog Of The Week (LOSS) This is an excellent sandwich play that catches Appalachian State off a donnybrook with Marshall (won 31-30) & plays the Sun Belt West kingpin Louisiana (Lafayette) next week. Remember, it was Louisiana who beat App. St. 24-21For this one, it looks like Georgia State has worked out the kinks as it led Auburn in the last minute. Unfortunately, a blown call (even after replay) sealed their fate as Auburn pulled away 34-24. This game left a bad taste in HC Shawn Elliott's (in his 5th year & played DE @ App. St. in the 90's) bunch that will fuel their fire this afternoon. The Panthers return all 11 offensive starters & should be up to the task up against a Mountaineers squad that continues to be over-valued (0-3-1 their last 4 but 3-1 SU) as a road favorite. My bottom line says this fits like a glove knowing Georgia State excels in Sun Belt openers going a ticket-cashing 6-1-1 their last 8. This should happen again where HC Shawn Clark's Mounts may get the "W" but not the cover. However, an additional small play is recommended with GSU on the ML. Let's go to Atlanta's Center Parc Credit Union Stadium to pay the GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS (buying to + 11 1/2) as my CFB Ugly Pig Dog Of The Week! NOTES: It's been a mushes year thus far in the colleges & that extra Georgia State play turned the week into a 3-3. However, 2 big 9 Star PAC-12 picks on Stanford & Arizona State were spot on. Looking for a Week 6 kicking it in week to level things off in a slow-starting season. Check out my hot plays to bank in the NFL @ Vegastopdogs.com for your Sunday winners! Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Overall Record: 7-11 for an absurd 39%

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