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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 5 Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 3, 2022
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Saturday, October 01, 2022 Texas Tech vs. Kansas State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7.5/-105 Kansas State Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Earlybird Stronghold (WIN) There's much more to this than just the facts that the Red Raiders (just 12 starters back TY) have lost 10 of 11 & the past 6 (going 1-4-1 ATS) in a row in this series. Yes, HC Chris Klieman (4th season here after posting a 69-6 record @ North Dakota State with 4 Nt'l Championships) & his Wildcats are coming off a stunning 41-34 upset win over the Sooners @ Oklahoma as 13 1/2-point underdogs. The last time they did that (2020), they came back to beat the Red Raiders 31-21 @ this venue. The better equalizer says (and we had them) Joey McGuire's (1st HC'ing job) Texas Tech entry pulled off the more exhausting upset when they outlasted the Texas Longhorns in Lubbock 37-34 in OT as 7-point dogs. The last time they upset Texas (2015) saw them come back to get pummeled by L.S.U. 56-27 in the Texas Bowl in Houston right about the same spread as this. It's interesting how the Red River rivals both went down just 2 weeks before their 118th meeting @ the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. So what stands out in this Big 12 matchup? It has to be how the Red Raiders have responded in their 1st true road test @ N.C. State just 2 weeks ago. They looked horrible in a 27-14 loss where they turned the ball over 4 times. Yes, Texas Tech has a good passing game. However, I feel KSU's defense (they rank 20th in scoring "D" & 11th in the country in passing defense is the bigger edge WITH home field advantage (the Red Raiders' scoring "D" comes in a distant 71st). The analytics show Kansas State is a solid 11-2 ATS after allowing 280+ yards passing as well as Tech being a no-show 0-5-1 versus the number following their last 6 SU wins. My bottom line says it's pretty interesting to find ex-Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez (10 INT's under Scott Frost's tutelage) hasn't thrown an INT under K-State OC Chris Klein (QB coach @ KSU the L4 years) this season (2/0 TD/INT ratio & has 298 rushing yards, 6 TD's & 5.0 YPR). I further feel playmaking RB Deuce Vaughn (468 yards rushing, 3 TD's & 5.4 YPR) is an excellent 2-sided coin in completing the backfield ensemble needed to keep the sticks moving here. The Wildcats will ALSO be anxious to win back the home crowd after suffering their only loss @ home versus Tulane (17-10) just 2 weeks ago. We're riding consistency as K-State has had Texas Tech's number as well as Oklahoma's since the Sooners are 28-2 SU @ home since mid-2017 but both losses were to KSU) Let's get pumped & ready as we go to the AstroTurf @ Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan to play the KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (buying to a strategic - 2 1/2) as my 9 Star CFB Earlybird Stronghold! Friday, September 30, 2022 Tulane vs. Houston (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2.5/-105 Tulane Rating: 8* Mike's Friday Night Revenger (WIN) Prognosticators seemed to be riding off Willie Fritz's (7th season-went to 3 bowls in the L4 seasons) Greenies (predicted to come in 7th) after a dismal 2-10 campaign last season. However, Tulane has responded well with a 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS thus far (should be 4-0/won stats each game by 194+ yards). This includes giving 3-1 Kansas State their only loss, (17-10 in Week 3) who just upset Oklahoma 41-34 in Norman LW. Even though the Green Wave (18 of 22 starters back) is coming off their 1st loss of the season (lost 27-24 to SBC entry Southern Mississippi @ home LW due to being a -3 in turnover differential), I'm writing that game off as a letdown/flat spot after their KSU upset since the numbers show a big 451 to 253 yardage edge in that lone loss. They now take on HC Dana Holgorsen's Cougars (12-2 LY but only 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS TY) whose been pretty lucky to be @ .500 since they won a 37-35 (3-OT) thriller @ UTSA in Week 1 & were MORE than fortunate to slide past the Rice Owls @ home LW when they squeaked out a 34-27 win (needed a 11-yd. fumble return TD with 3 minutes left AND a red-zone stop @ the 9-yd. line as time expired). What really stands out is how Holgorsen recently told the press that he was tired @ yelling & motivating his team. I don't think spirits will be high with his team coming into this AAC conference opener. My bottom line says third-year sophomore QB Michael Pratt (out of Deerfield Beach HS in FLA) is super-talented (7/3 TD/ratio, 905 passing yards & 197 rushing yards), has an excellent RB in Tyjae Spears (205 yards rushing, 106 yards receiving, 6 TD's) & has a bevy of WR's & TE's (led by Jha'Quan Jackson-154 receiving yards, 2 TD's) to exploit a Houston defense (ranked 114th out of 131 teams) whose lost DE Derek Parish for the season, has NT Chidozie Nwankwo just off suspension? & has S Gervarrius Owens playing through an injury. These teams' pass defenses are on extremely different ends with the Cougars' ranking a distant 120th while the Green Wave rank #1 in the country (has a 4th-ranked "D" overall taking on the Cougars' 79th-ranked "O"). There will also be a matter of revenge with Houston taking a 40-22 decision @ Yulman Stadium last season & a 49-31 outcome during the pandemic year. Let's jaunt to synthetic turf @ TDECU Stadium in Texas to play the TULANE GREEN WAVE (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 8 Star Friday Night Revenger! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 7-3 for a rollin' 70%

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