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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 4 Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 25, 2022
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Saturday, September 24, 2022 Texas vs. Texas Tech (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +7/-110 Texas Tech Rating: 8* Big Time Revenger Play (WIN) History may not support a win since the Red Raiders only have 4 wins in this series since 99'. Texas Tech got embarrassed last season after losing their QB in a 70-35 rout @ Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. 1st-year HC Joey McGuire has this game circled as that looked apparent in their hap-hazard effort (4 TO's) in a 13-point loss @ NC State last week (but out-gained the Pack' 353 to 270). However, 2 seasons ago reveals a galant showing by the "Boys from Lubbock" where the Longhorns needed OT before outlasting them 63-56. With the injury to starting Texas QB Quinn Ewers, HC Steve Sarkisian will go with Hudson Card. Yep, this is the same Card that was benched after 2 games started last time out (lost 40-21 to Arkansas) in hopes of replacing Sam Ehlinger who left for the Indy Colts. Texas is looking @ the bright side, Arch Manning (Cooper Manning's kid) will be here next season after graduating from Isidore Newman High School in New Orleans. Crunching the numbers show Texas Tech has a very strong 23-7 spread mark as a home underdog coming off of a SU & ATS loss. The Longhorns also come in a non-trusting 2-5 versus the number as Big 12 road favorites. My bottom line says it will be hard to focus with Texas having 2 big games on deck with West Virginia & the Red River Rivalry game with Oklahoma looming. Let's go to Jones AT&T Stadium/Cody Campbell Field in Lubbock to play the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 8 Star Big Time Revenger Play! Minnesota vs. Michigan State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -150 Minnesota Rating: 8* Mike's Big Ten Game Of The Week (WIN) Does it make any sense for a Minnesota to be a favorite in East Lansing since they've lost their last 5 SU in this series (but is just the opposite the L8 meetings @ 7-1 ATS)? The mushes don't think so but I surely do. HC P.J. Fleck's Golden Gophers have this circled too as his 1st year of coaching in Minneapolis saw these 21st-ranked Spartans lay a 3rd consecutive loss on them 30-27 in a game @ Minny (7-3-1- ATS playing with conference revenge). This time around what I see is a vulnerable (far from Mel Tucker's 11-2 team LY) Michigan State pass defense up against a veteran Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan who can thread the needle. I thought MSU could hang last week versus Michael Penix & Washington (allowed 397 yards & 4 TD's) but the defense played lost in a 39-28 defeat. Now this team takes on a Golden Gophers squad with some serious momentum (10-2 SU their L12). My bottom line says we have to stress where teams wind up in a Game 4 home game & are coming off their first SU loss of the season. For the past 42 seasons, IF a team is off their 1st loss AND are up against a conference opponent, these teams are a dreadful 20-39-1 ATS. DC Joe Rossi has his defense playing well limiting his 1st 3 opponents to 91,194 & 226 total yards respectively (yielding less than 6 PPG). Let's go to the grass of Spartan Stadium to play the MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS for the "W" as my 8 Star Big Ten Game Of The Week! Arkansas vs. Texas A&M (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +1.5/-110 Arkansas Rating: 9* Mike's SEC Prime-Timer Perfect (WIN off buy) The 2-1 SU Aggies have had the Hogs' number winning their last 9 SU heading into last season's game in Arlington. As 4 1/2-point dogs, Arkansas (3-0 SU TY) won the game outright 20-10 breaking that streak (dominated the yardage with a 443 to 272 advantage). Texas A&M has really lacked continuity their last 2 games (both @ home) versus Appalachian State (lost 17-14) & Miami, Fla. (won 17-9 with just 264 yards of offense). I'm not sure if HC Jimbo Fisher's selection @ QB in Max Johnson is the right answer. Yes, this is the same QB that lasted 2 series' for LSU before being benched in a 16-13 OT loss to these Razorbacks in Baton Rouge. Crunching the numbers show these same Aggies under Fisher are just 4-9 ATS as a conference revenger in a favorite role. We really have something brewing as we tighten this further as the "Boys From College Station" are a no-show 2-8 versus the number as SEC chalk when up against an undefeated team. On the flip side, let's examine Sam "Let's change the culture quick" Pittman (went 9-4 LY after going 3-7 in his 1st season). Pittman not only shines in the underdog role @ 10-3 ATS but is a perfect storm 7-0 versus the spread when a dog of 16 or less. I feel the Hogs' will have laser focus here as his team seem to waltz through their 38-27 home win over the FCS entry Missouri State Bears who are now coached by a former Arkansas HC in Bobby Petrino. I love our chances in this game knowing A&M has dropped 4 of their last 5 versus the points as single-digit favorites & are 3-7 versus the number in September while the Pigs have gone an opposite & near-perfect 8-1 ATS their last 9 in games during that month. Here's exactly where we're going. Let's get pumped & ready for a change ourselves as we go to Jerry's Place in Arlington to play the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (buying them to + 4 1/2) as my 9 Star SEC Prime-Timer Perfect Storm! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 5-3 for 63%

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