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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 4 Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 27, 2021
   
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Saturday, September 25, 2021 Louisville vs. Florida State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -115 Louisville Rating: 8* Mike's Saturday Afternoon Smart Play (WIN) Has there been any effective QB established for 2nd-year OC Kenny Dillingham (coached with HC Mike Norvell @ Memphis)? It's been McKenzie Milton & Jordan Travis battling it out back & forth. FSU's offense has produced 10 turnovers versus Notre Dame, Jacksonville State & Wake Forest in their 3 SU losses this season. It seems like they're pressing the panic button & trying to make things happen too quickly as evidenced by their 6 turnover game in a 35-14 defeat versus the Demon Deacons last week. My bottom line says HC Scott Satterfield (calls the plays for QB Malik Cunningham) has the Louisville program pointing in the right direction ever since taking over in 19' when he led the Cardinals to a stunning 38-28 bowl win over Mississippi State as 5-point dogs. In a COVID year last season, the Cardinals went 1-4 SU going into Game 6 where they showed up with a convincing 48-16 win over the Seminoles. Let's trek to Doak S. Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee to play the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS as my 8* Saturday Afternoon Smart Play! Tennessee vs. Florida (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 19/-110 Tennessee Rating: 8* Mike's SEC Game Of The Week (LOSS) I highly question if Florida has enough left in their tank after a furious 2nd-half comeback over Alabama that ended in a missed 2-pt conversion that resulted in a narrow 31-29 loss. Here's a system that definitely qualifies the Gators as a play-against squad this week! It states: Teams that lose a 1-score game but cover versus the Crimson Tide come back to go just 8-19 versus the number IF their defense yields more than 21.5 PPG. My bottom line says I don't think Florida can match Tennessee's intensity here. DC Todd Grantham returns just 5 starters back on defense & now goes up against a fresher Vols' offense where new HC Josh Heupel (went 28-8 @ UCF) employs a very fast-tempo style that's scored close to 43 PPG thus far. It looks like he's found a QB in Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker (15-for-21 & 2 TD's) who took over for Joe Milton & almost pulled out a win over Pitt (41-34). The only thing left is to play this @ the right number. Let's go to the Swamp @ Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville to play the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (buying to a key + 21 1/2) as my SEC Game Of The Week! Miami Ohio vs. Army (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7.5/-115 Army Rating: 10* Mike's Signature Weekend 10* CFB Firestarter Play (BIG 10 Star Win) This series started in 1960 & the teams have split their 6 meetings to date. Guess what 1-2 SU Miami (Ohio)? You won't be playing the Long Island Blackbirds this week & you won't have Ben Roethlisberger back either (graduated in 2003)! When they did play a team on the road with a legit offense (Week 1 versus Cincinnati), they got pummeled 49-19. Believe it or not, they were a +3 in turnover ratio that game. They still lost by 30? They now take on a (8th year) Jeff Monken-coached squad (38-16 SU since 2017) that's racked up 736 total rushing yards & 45 PPG the past 2 weeks. I also feel the RedHawks are feeling fat & happy after their 1st win of the season last week @Yager Stadium in Oxford. Army (3-0) should really limit their chances of sniffing the ball with an offense rushing for 331 yards per game (4.9 YPR) & a defense yielding just 69. With only 1 week to prepare for the triple-option, co-DC's John Hauser & Spence Nowinsky will be severely challenged. The men from West Point won't take this team lightly as witnessed by a 31-30 Cadets' win @ this venue in 2018. The Black Knights look to go 4-0 SU for the 1st time in 51 years. My bottom line points out the home team has gone 12-5 ATS in RedHawks' games. I'm not sure we'll get (8th year) HC Chuck Martin's squad to produce an "A" game with their MAC opener versus the Central Michigan Chippewas @ home immediately on deck. Army built up big leads the past 2 weeks & watched as their opponents slipped in the back door both chances. Don't count on it here! Let's go to Michie Stadium in West Point, NY to play the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (buying to -6) as my Signature Weekend 10* CFB Firestarter Play! Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -235 Wisconsin Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Headliner Moneyliner (LOSS) This is the 17th meeting (ND leads series 8-6-2) between these 2 with their last game in 1964. That year, Fighting Irish rookie HC Ara Parseghian's career started successfully (The Era of Ara) @ Camp Randall Stadium with a 31-7 road win capped by QB John Huarte & WR Jack Snow. ND went 9-1 SU before losing the Jeweled Shillelagh in the finale to U.S.C. 20-17 @ L.A. Memorial Coliseum. This is quite a different team under 12th-year HC Brian Kelly whose 3-0 SU despite having just 3 offensive starters returning. I think that catches up to them here. One of those starters (Jack Coan @ QB) is a Wisconsin transfer who left the team after losing the starting job in 20' to current Badgers QB Graham Mertz. My bottom line has to stress Notre Dame's inexperience on the O-Line will cause problems for them here. They face Wisconsin's 2nd-ranked defense in the nation with their RB's averaging 106 rushing yards per game (2.9 YPR) & Coan having been sacked 14 times by the likes of Florida State, Toledo & Purdue. The Fighting Irish caught a BIG break last week when both starting QB Jack Plummer & WR David Bell were forced out of a close game in the 2nd half. Backup QB Aiden O'Connell threw 2 INT's & ND pulled away 27-13. I feel having 2 weeks to prepare for this game against the Fighting Irish & Jack Coan is a sizable advantage for DC Jim Leonhard to expose. I have to trust 7th-year HC Paul Chryst charges (with 17 returning starters) more in this game @ legendary Soldier Field. Oddly enough, the last time these 2 had a neutral-field meeting was right here @ this venue in 1929 when ND HC Knute Rockne led the Irish to a 19-0 win for a 9-0 National Championship team. I'm looking for Wisky's Mertz to prove why he was selected over Coan as we'll go to the natural grass of Soldier Field to play my 8* CFB Headliner Moneyliner on the WISCONSIN BADGERS! Friday, September 24, 2021 Liberty vs. Syracuse (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -225 Liberty Rating: 9* Mike's Power-5 Upgrader Play (LOSS) HC Hugh Freeze 1st season @ Liberty 2 seasons ago looked successful @ 8-5 SU with a bowl win over Georgia Southern 23-16 as 4 1/2-point dogs. But against Power 5 schools, they went 0-3 SU & ATS. Last year (in his 2nd season), he played 3 ACC (Power 5) schools on the road & went 3-0 ATS including outright wins versus Syracuse @ -3 & Virginia Tech @ +17. They finished their best season in school history @ 10-1 SU culminating with bowl win over an 11-0 Coastal Carolina squad 37-34 as 6 1/2-point dogs. This season, Freeze has just 2 Power 5 schools circled on the schedule with laser focus. The 1st is this game & the last one is huge in Oxford against Mississippi November 6th (where he coached 5 years from 12' thru 16' but resigned after a scandal in 16). Make NO mistake about it! This guy can coach as he led Ole Miss (4 out of 5 winning seasons there) to 2 consecutive wins over Nick Saban & his Alabama Crimson Tide in 14' & 15'. Freeze's "D" ranks 7th in the country that allows a stingy 234 YPG & 11 PPG. They face QB Tommy Devito whose offense turned the ball over 5 times this season including a pick-6 to Albany @ home last week. My bottom line says it was tough watching Syracuse (being a fan) & HC Dino Babers the past season which ended in a disasterous 1-10 SU campaign with many opt-outs. With an anticipated ACC road opener next week @ Florida State, they now face a Flames' squad that's a super 15-2 ATS their last 17 & 10-0 versus the number the last 10. I feel the line is a little inflated so grabbing Liberty on the ML (they're 15-1 SU the last 16) is the way to go. We get a solid QB in Malik Willis whose a triple-threat with an excellent TD/INT ratio @ 7/0 & has rushed for 225 rushing yards & 4 more TD's. Let's go up to the Carrier Dome on Irving Avenue to play the LIBERTY FLAMES as my 9* Power-5 Upgrader Play! Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Overall Record: Ice-Cold 4-8 for 33%
 


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