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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 3 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 21, 2021
   
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Saturday, September 18, 2021 Auburn vs. Penn State (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -200 Penn State Rating: 8* Mike's Saturday Night Perfect Storm Play (WIN) If you missed the 10* or earlier picks, don't miss this one! ESPN College Gameday invades Happy Valley for the 3rd-ever meeting of Auburn-Penn State (PSU won 43-14 in the 95' Outback Bowl & Auburn won 13-9 in the 02' Capital One Bowl). The SEC hasn't visited her since 2011 when #3 Bama' beat the # 23 Nittany Lions 27-11. All I'm hearing is how difficult it's going to be in stopping Auburn & QB Bo Nix whose averaging 61 PPG. The mushes who are Tigers' backers need to cool their jets! They won over the MAC doormat - Akron Zips & FCS entry - Alabama State Hornets. In contrast, Penn State went on the road & beat Wisconsin 16-10 @ difficult Camp Randall Stadium where they were 55-9 SU there the last decade & beat last year's MAC Champs in the Ball State Cardinals 44-13! Crunching the numbers a little deeper show the Tigers coming in as 8-17 ATS as road dogs while PSU is a take-me-to-the-window 31-10-1 versus the number when coming off a SU win. My bottom line says DC Brent Pry (in his 8th year as DC & came over with Franklin from Vanderbilt) will devise a plan making 3rd-year Auburn QB Bo Nix get out of his comfort zone & eventually make mistakes @ key times. He played in front of LIMITED SEC crowds last year. The scheduled "White Out" in a crowd of 106,000+ will certainly be a culture shock for Nix whose a different QB when on the road. Yes, he's excellent @ Jordan-Hare Stadium with an out-of-this-world 12-2 SU & 22/3 TD/INT ratio. But when he leaves those comfy confines, he's 4-5 SU with a 9/10 TD/INT ratio in true away games. His flaws have showed more versus ranked teams as evidenced by a 2-8 SU record (lost 4 straight). The Nittany Lions have built serious momentum since last year going 6-0 SU & ATS. Let's move on to the perfect storm that involves James Franklin. Simply put, when coming off consecutive SU & ATS wins, he's gone a perfect 12-0 ATS! Has he ever faced Auburn? Yes, his Commodores upset the Tigers 17-13 @ Nashville in 2012. You have to trust PSU's Sean Clifford to get the job done down the stretch more than Bo Nix. Let's go to Beaver Stadium in State College to play the PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS as my Saturday Night Perfect Storm Play! Florida State vs. Wake Forest (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-110 Florida State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Over-Reaction Play (LOSS) The public & the mushes are selling Florida State off here! Last week's loss was a CLEAR look-ahead to their 1st ACC contest this season. HC Mike Norvell has 10 offensive starters back to an 0-2 SU team coming off 2 last-minute defeats (Jacksonville State Gamecocks beat them on a 59-yard "Hail Mary" last week & they lost in OT to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in Week 1). This series has been all Seminoles who have won the last 7 of 8 SU. Expect Norvell to make the right decision @ QB with Jordan Travis & McKenzie Milton. I'm not holding Wake Forest too high since they've gone 2-0 SU versus the Old Dominion Monarchs & the Norfolk State Spartans of the FCS. HC Dave Clawson (2-5has QB Sam Hartman back for his 2nd official season & has beaten FSU on this field before by a 22-20 (Sem's missed a FG late) count 2 years ago. My bottom line says the Demon Deacons are on a short week with a Friday night game with Virginia on deck. I feel we see the team that almost beat Notre Dame 2 weeks ago. Here's where we're playing it! Let's roll down to Truist Field in Winston-Salem to play the FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (buying to + 7 1/2) as my CFB Over-Reaction Play! Colorado State vs. Toledo (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -14/-110 Toledo Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Sleeper Play (LOSS) HC Jason Candle's (calls offensive plays) team will use last week's late 4th quarter 32-29 loss @ ND as a springboard launching the Rockets as a dangerous team out of the MAC. Toledo DC Vince Kehres (Went 95-6 his last 7 years with Division III Mount Union) has all 11 players back this season & it showed last week with 6 sacks on QB Jack Coan holding them to an excellent 3.4 YPC. They ALSO have 10 starters back on offense & go up against a defense with growing pains that gave up 6 TD's to FCS entry South Dakota State Jackrabbits in a 42-23 home loss 2 weeks ago. Last week, they lost again @ home 24-21 to a very poor SEC squad in Vanderbilt. My bottom line says Toledo can control the clock with 229 rushing yards per game (4.8 YPC) versus HC Steve Addazio's un-disciplined bunch (came over from Boston College) whose 101st in turnover margin & 118th out of 130 in yards penalized. Remember, Candle as a double-digit favorite is 18-2 SU his last 20 & 9-3 ATS his last 12. The rockets have had success versus the Mountain West going 5-1 ATS the last 6. Numbers don't lie as teams who lose to Vanderbilt as a favorite come back to go 8-14 versus the number against an opponent off a SU loss. Let's go to the infamous Glass Bowl in Ohio to play the TOLEDO ROCKETS (buying to - 10 1/2) as my CFB Sleeper Play!East Carolina vs. Marshall (NCAAF) - 6:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9.5/-110 Marshall Rating: 10* Mike's 10* Saturday Night Blowout Special (LOSS) The Pirates (one of Gardner Minshew's old collegiate stomping grounds) played their "A" games for 3rd-year HC Mike Houston (7-16 @ ECU) thus far when they had the crowd & experience in their 33-19 season-opening loss to the Appalachian State Mountaineers & a 20-17 home loss to a weak South Carolina Gamecocks team. That won't be the case on the road here. 1st-year HC Charles Huff (who was Assistant HC/RB's Coach @ Alabama the last 2 years) won't waste the chance in blowing out one of the weakest American Athletic Conference squads this season. My bottom line says East Carolina QB Holton Ahlers (2 TD's/ 3 INT's overall & threw a pick-6 last week) will be that sacrificial lamb led to slaughter versus Marshall (7-3 LY, 2-0 TY) who lost to the UAB Blazers 22-13 in last year's Conference USA Championship. This team has jetted out of the gate beating Navy 49-7 in Week 1 before beating the NC Central Eagles 44-10 (compiled 703 yards of total offense). QB Grant Wells should shred the EC secondary whose defense ranks 90th versus the pass. Don't under-estimate the motivation as this is the 50th anniversary of a young Thundering Herd squad taking over after losing 75 players, coaches & personnel in a plane crash coming back from a game @ East Carolina. We're ready to go to Joan C. Edwards Stadium to play the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD (buying to - 6 1/2) as my 10* Saturday Night Blowout Special! Utah vs. San Diego State (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9/-105 Utah Rating: 8* Mike's West Coast Special (LOSS) Even though the pollsters (what a joke) dropped the Utes from the Top 25, I feel that's going to turn out to be a mistake after they see them compete for the PAC-12 title with Oregon & U.C.L.A. The "Boys From Salt Lake City" (1-1 this season & off a 26-17 "Holy War" loss @ tough BYU) return 19 out of 22 starters for HC Kyle Whittingham. He gets to take it out on a Brady Hoke (whose far from a Rocky Long) San Diego State Aztecs team that's feeling fat & happy after 28-10 & 38-14 wins over 2 weak sisters in the New Mexico State Aggies & Arizona Wildcats. What the mushes DON'T realize is this game is not really a real home game for SD State (constructing a new stadium in Mission Valley next season) as they have to travel 2 hours to Cal State U's 27,000-seat Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson. These 2 last met in 2010 (38-34 Utah) during the Utes' last season competing in the Mountain West Conference. Is this another nail-biter? The analytics point sayeth not as Utah has MASTERED the Mountain West of late going 15-2 SU & 13-4 ATS. I feel the visitor's got super talent in the unsung red-shirt freshman RB Micah Bernard. He'll be joined by Baylor senior transfer (started 39 games & threw for 9,700 yards) Charlie Brewer whose play-action will get stronger as the Utes solidify the run game. One system worth mentioning involves HC Whittingham's career stats. After losing as a favorite of 8 or less, his teams have come back to go a robust 15-5 SU & very profitable 13-7 ATS. Let's go to Dignity Health Sports Park to play the UTAH UTES (buying to a key - 6 1/2) as my 8* West Coast Special! NOTES: It was a rare mushes weekend that began Saturday when a 3-2 week turned quickly into a 1-4. While Penn State was strong against Auburn, it was a bitter pill to swallow when Marshall blew a 17-point 4th quarter lead (under 8 minutes to go) & lost to East Carolina 42-38 despite accumulating 647 yards of offense. Then it was the Utes who looked like they were coming back but lost in triple-OT 33-31 on a 2-pt conversion - trick play by San Diego State. Look for a comeback/signature weekend Saturday! Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Overall Record: 2-5 for a catastrophal 29%
 


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