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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 3 Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 19, 2022
   
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Saturday, September 17, 2022 Michigan State vs. Washington (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3/-110 Michigan State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) The initial reaction of most mushes here is ex-Indiana, now Washington Huskies QB Michael Penix should have success (won 24-0 in 20' & lost 20-15 LY) since he did in a few Big 10 games while a Hoosier. Yeah, UWash current rookie HC Kaelin DeBoer was the OC who groomed Penix @ IU last season (had a 4/7 TD/INT ratio @ that time) before transferring out west. However, facing a base defense in those 2 seasons (especially in the pandemic year in 20') hardly qualifies as legit this time around. Why? Because Michigan State has 9 players back on defense AND plays a whole different "D" right now going with a 4-3 alignment plus a tenacious Cover-2 by Ex-NFL DC & now Spartans' HC Mel Tucker (3rd season/13-7 SU) & DC Scottie Hazleton. Can the Huskies exploit it? If they have an excellent running game they can. Unfortunately, they don't have one. Both teams come into this tussle 2-0 SU. I'm not holding much value on the Washington side since Penix & his "O" put up 617 total yards on Portland U in a lopsided 52-6 win while also besting Kent State 45-20. On the flip side of that coin, QB Payton Thorne (threw a school-record 27 TD's last season) plus TB & Colorado transfer Jarek Broussard (isn't a Kenny Walker) & RB/Wisconsin transfer Jalen Burger (both combined for 6 TD's this season) are enough playmakers to compete for 4 quarters & stay in-it to win-it. My bottom line says you can't trust Penix who has been proven to be turnover-prone in clutch situations. The early line on this game was Michigan State -3 & now the line has been over-adjusted by 6 points in the opposite direction. It just doesn't make sense. Because of the number & past ATS analytics, we're specifically going to Alaska Airlines Field @ Husky Stadium to play the MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (buying to + 7 1/2) with a little pasta tossed on the ML as my 8 Star CFB Public Missed Perception Play! SMU vs. Maryland (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2.5/100 SMU Rating: 9* Mike's Strongest CFB Play On The Board (LOSS) This appears to be a DANDY of a Football Bowl Subdivision matchup of 2 teams (both 2-0 SU but neither have been tested) that can really light up the scoreboard! These 2 met last in 62' ending in a 7-0 MD win. I love the new-look Mustangs under 1st-year HC Rhett Lashlee (former QB @ Arkansas & was OC @ Miami, Fla. the past 2 years). His OC Casey Woods (worked with Lashlee @ Auburn) has the offense jetting out of the gate in record time. This game is a matchup of 2 experienced QB's with the Terrapins' QB Taulia Tagovailoa (former Alabama reserve) taking on SMU's Tanner Mordecai (former Oklahoma backup). What stands out for me is SMU's offense that has scored very quickly the 1st 2 games (averaging over 40 PPG) in barely over 24 average minutes of possession time. We'll side with Mordecai whose amassed 644 passing yards for 7 TD's & should be able to exploit WR Rashee Rice (17 receptions for 298 yards & 3 TD's) in a weaker Terrapins' secondary for HC Mike Locksley (4th season/13-23 @ MD) whose without the services of CB/PR Tarheeb Still. T.J. McDaniel & Velton Gardner give great balance with a ground attack. My bottom line says even though Tagovailoa (681 passing yards & 4 TD's thus far) will also his points finding favorite WR's Jeshaun Jones, Dontay Demus & Rakim Jarrett, this team still has a circled & BIG revenge game with fellow Big 10'er Michigan (who made final 4 LY) on deck who pummeled them 59-18 last season. I feel the Terps will more than have their hands full pulling away from this team (if at all) in the end. Points are definitely premium so let's get on the right side of a FG plus as we go to field turf @ College Park's Capital One Field @ Maryland Stadium to play the S.M.U. Mustangs (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 9 Star Strongest CFB Play On The Board! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 2-3 for a shabby 40%
 


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