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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 16 Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 22, 2020
   
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Saturday, December 19, 2020 Tulsa vs. Cincinnati (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -13.5/-110 Cincinnati Rating: 8* Mike's 8* Saturday Night Bailout Play (LOSS) These 9th-ranked Bearcats (8-0 SU & 6-0 in the AAC) could have a college football playoff spot on the line if a few team ahead of them get upset. AAC League commissioner Mike Aresco awarded Cincinnati home field advantage after getting approval from both HC's. Cincinnati HC Luke Fickel (Conference Coach of the Year & 30-5 SU the last 3 seasons) has a super QB & AAC Offensive Player of the Year in Desmond Ridder who passed for 1,821 yards & 16 TD's as well as running for 526 & 11 more TD's. He'll have a stellar RB complimenting him in Gerrid Doaks leads the team in rushing yards with 660 & has scores 9 TD's (7 rushing, 2 receiving). My bottom line says these Bearcats (with 9 starters back on defense) are a rested & eager team waiting to show their talents in this prime time affair. Golden Hurricane HC Philip Montgomery has done an excellent job turning this program around going from 4-8 last season to 6-1 currently in 20'. However, the analytics don't lie as Cincinnati not only sports a 5-1 ATS record versus winning teams but also is a perfect 4-0 versus the number on field turf. Even though Tulsa has a good defense, it hasn't fared well after holding a team under 20 points. They've gone a ticket-ripping 1-10 ATS in this situation. The X-Factor for me is the Bearcats' freshness having last played on November 21st when they beat perennial AAC champ UCF 36-33. I look for the "Boys from The Queen City" to get the job done similar to last year's 24-13 win over the Golden Hurricane. Let's jaunt to Nippert Stadium to play the CINCINNATI BEARCATS (buying to - 9 1/2) as my 8* Saturday Night Bailout Play! Stanford vs. UCLA (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-115 Stanford Rating: 8* Mike's 8* Riding On Fumes Game Of The Week (WIN) Don't under-estimate the fact that these SAME 3-3 SU Bruins left a whole lot on that field in a 43-38 loss to cross-town rival U.S.C. last week. They'll be riding on fumes by the second half in this one. Both HC's have has opposite success in Pac-12 play. U.C.L.A. HC Chip Kelly (in his 3rd year here) only comes into this one with a subpar 10-20 record SU. The other side of the sidelines we have HC David Shaw (in his 10th season) whose a proven commodity going 89-36 SU skippering the Trees. Stanford knows how to win 1-score games as witnessed by their last 3 consecutive wins (all on the road) their past 3 games. My bottom line says I more than love our chances backing the Cardinal with dependable QB Davis Mills who brings in a solid 65% completion rate with no INT's in 147 passing attempts on the season. This series has been super-dominated by Stanford whose won the last 11 of 12 SU & come into this with revenge for a 34-16 loss last season in in Palo Alto. Knowing these same Bruins are also a ticket-ripping 0-7-1 ATS in LHG (last home games) seals the deal! Let's go to an EMPTY Rose Bowl in L.A. to play the STANFORD CARDINAL (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 8* Riding On Fumes Game Of The Week! Mississippi vs. LSU (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -116 Mississippi Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) The public is all over National Champion & 4-5 SU L.S.U. despite playing their bowl game (they're in-eligible for one this season) last week & shocked the college football world with a stunning 37-34 shocker @ Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (The Swamp) in Gainesville. They won despite DC Bo Pelini's "D" giving up an amazing 609 total yards! However, prior to last week, the Bayou Bengals scored more than 17 points once in their previous 4 games. They now take on offensive guru & HC Lane Kiffen & his Ole Miss Rebels who've averaged 48 PPG over their last 3 games. Since coming to Oxford, Kiffen (sometimes referred to as radical or just plain out-of-the-box HC) has VASTLY improved the Rebels output by 13 PPG (averaging 40) as well as total yards gained by 119 YPG (they now average an impressive 564 YPG. Part of the reason for the rise has to be the play of QB Matt Corral whose amassed 2,744 passing yards, has a 24/9 TD/INT ratio, gets 10.8 yards per attempt & completes a laser-like 73% of his throws. He's had a great ground game complimenting him with RB's Snoop Conner & Jerrion Ealy who've teamed up to compile 1,056 rushing yards along with 16 TD's. My bottom line says we'll give HC Ed Orgeron kudos for last week. However, they lost a boat load of talent from last season's squad & his overall losing record attests it. Mississippi has already proven it can win on the SEC road with a 42-41 win (as 7-point dogs) versus Kentucky @ Kroger Field in Lexington. Remember, Kiffen has a little motivation heading into this one. Orgeron was his assistant who replaced him after he was fired @ U.S.C.. Let's go on the S.E.C. road with confidence as we go to Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge to play the MISSISSIPPI REBELS as my 9* CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Oklahoma vs. Iowa State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -215 Oklahoma Rating: 8* 8* Big 12 Conference Championship Play (WIN) The Boomer Sooners were a shocking 1-2 SU after a Game 3 37-30 loss to Iowa State @ Jack Trice Stadium in Ames. The mushes will FLOCK quickly after an impulsive action betting the 8-2 SU Cyclones knowing Iowa State HC Matt Campbell is a perfect 4-0 ATS against OU skipper Lincoln Riley. Since that last SU loss, Oklahoma has bounced back BIG going 6-0 SU, a ticket-cashing 5-1 against the number AND have out-scored their last 5 opponents by a lopsided 225-78 count. One thing has been pretty constant in these Big 12 championship games. Not ONLY has the favorite has gone a perfect 10-0 SU the last 10 but the Sooners have won 8 straight SU in conference championships. They'll need some consistency from their QB. That's just what QB Spencer Rattler has produced registering a 11/2 TD/INT ratio over his past 5 starts. My bottom line says I more than LOVE our chances since the Oklahoma "D" is talented enough (they allow 3.0 YPR) to hold ISU star RB Breece Hall (1,357 rushing yards-ranks 1st) in check. On the other side of the ball, Rattler has also surpassed both Iowa State QB Brock Purdy & Texas signal-caller Sam Ehlinger as the Big 12 top passer this season. Remember, the Sooners are blistering with confidence & familiarity as they've won this game 10 of 11 times as well as the last 3 consecutive seasons over the likes of T.C.U (41-17), Texas (39-27) & Baylor (30-23) compared to the Cyclones playing in their 1st championship. The table is set as we go to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX to play the OKLAHOMA SOONERS as my 8* Big 12 Conference Championship Play! Friday, December 18, 2020 UAB vs. Marshall (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -200 Marshall Rating: 9* Mike's 9* Conference USA Survivor (LOSS) I'm giving 7-1 SU Marshall a pass since it was super-obvious they didn't come to play in last week's(they were -4 in TO's) 20-0 no-show loss to Rice What impressed me about the Thundering Herd was the dominance of Appalachian State where they won 17-7 @ this venue earlier. Trust me, don't fall for the "comparing scores" angle since the Blazers defeated common opponent the Rice Owls 21-16. UAB (who won their 3rd straight Conference USA West Division) is playing their 2nd game in 48 days & should show signs of rust in this prime-timer. To have a chance, the Blazers need a healthy RB Spencer Brown running wild out of the backfield. My bottom line points straight to the analytics! My bottom line stresses the fact where Conference USA title game underdogs are a perfect 0-5 ATS IF getting 3 or more points. You have to love knowing Marshall is just 1 of 6 FBS schools to win the stats (they outgain opponents by an average of 171 yards per game) in all 8 games played this season. Here's the tightener! A conference championship team who 1) come off of a SU loss AND 2) play against an opponent off a SU win who 3) give up 18 or more points AND 4) has revenge has come back to go a take-me-to-the-window 9-1 ATS. Let's go to Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Huntington, WV to play the home boys - the MARSHALL Thundering Herd as my 9* Conference USA Survivor! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 25-25 50%
 


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