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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 14 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 9, 2020
   
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Saturday, December 05, 2020 Oklahoma State vs. TCU (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -135 Oklahoma State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Headliner Moneyliner (LOSS) There's more than doubt surrounding T.C.U.'s personnel available each week due to COVID 19 concerns. HC Gary Patterson went as far as saying there were close to 40 guys missing last week when luckily playing Kansas (their offense didn't score 3 of their TD's & QB Max Duggan completed just 3 passes). I over-estimated TCU early on & won't make that same mistake here. The facts speak for themselves with the 4-4 SU Horned Frogs as they bring in a 8-19-2 ATS mark @ home the last 5 seasons. My bottom line says Oklahoma State offense is no slouch since compiling 543 total yards last week in a 50-44 victory over Texas Tech. I don't think TCU won't be able to tame OSU RB Dezmon Jackson who ran wild versus the Red Raiders for 235 yards. Even better news is RB Chuba Hubbard could be back in the backfield complimenting Jackson. The general public will be all over TCU since the Cowboys are 0-4 ATS their last 4. Value speaks out as we go to Forth Worth's Amon G. Carter Stadium to play the visiting OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS as my 8* CFB Headliner Moneyliner! Tulsa vs. Navy (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -12/-110 Tulsa Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) I've been following the Midshipmen closely this season & they've struggled to put together 2 tightly-contested games back-to-back. Last weekend saw Navy go down to the wire with 6-2 SU Memphis in a 10-7 loss. They now take on a Tulsa squad (5-0 in the AAC & 5-1 SU overall) that sits atop the West Division & seem destined to meet Cincinnati for it all in a couple of weeks. The knee-jerk reaction here is to be all over the Anchors since they own a 5-0 SU & ATS record versus Tulsa. Things will be a little bit different this time around since the Golden Hurricane have an excellent rushing defense only yielding 148 yards per game on the ground (3.8 YPR). My bottom line says this is a proverbial sandwich for 3-5 SU Navy with major rival Army on deck (@ West Point this season). I simply love the visitor since they'll be SUPER-eager to execute revenge for that 45-17 embarrassing loss last season. Let's be confident as we go to the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis to grab the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE (buying to - 9 1/2) as my 9* CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Georgia Tech vs. NC State (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -240 NC State Rating: 8* Mike's ACC Game Of The Week (WIN) Do I think it was a fluke last week when the Ramblin' Wreck beat 5-turnover Duke 56-33? Yep, that's exactly what I think it is. Georgia Tech (3-5 SU) will revert back to the struggling ways when they hit the road away from Atlanta where they've lost to Boston College 48-27 & to 1-10 SU Syracuse 37-20. So why the ML? Because HC Dave Doeren & his 7-3 SU Wolfpack have been skilled @ winning the close game this season (4-1 SU in games decide by 7 or less) as well as games @ home also with a 4-1 SU mark (only loss to 7-1 SU Miami, Fla. 44-41). My bottom line says the Yellow Jackets are like a pin ball. One week they're up 7 the next they're down as witnessed by their perfect 0-5 ATS when coming off a SU win. Remember, the one RB that had major success versus Duke (Jahmyre Gibbs) got injured last game. I like our chances SU since GT has a freshman QB on the road (Jeff Sims) whose thrown 11 INT's to date AND with the revenge factor in place (GT beat NC State 28-26 last season). Let's go to Raleigh & over to Carter-Finley Stadium to lay the lumber on the NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK as my 8* ACC Game Of The Week! Texas vs. Kansas State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-115 Kansas State Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) Kansas State has had Texas' number in Manhattan until the Longhorns edged them 19-14 in 18' ending a 16-year winless drought. However, the key thing to remember is what's transpired after Iowa State beat 5-3 SU Texas 23-20 last Saturday. HC Tom Herman seems to be losing players left & right who are now declaring to "opt out" for the remainder of the season. What kind of a message is this sending to those player s left? I don't see their motivation here or against patsy Kansas who remains on-deck. My bottom line says 2nd-year HC Chris Klieman (who came over after winning 4 FCS titles with North Dakota State) will be getting his troops up for this like its their bowl game with this contest being the last scheduled game. After crunching series' numbers, 2016 saw a 24-21 KSU win, 2017 witnessed a 40-34 (2 OT) win by Texas, 2 seasons ago (see above) & last season the Longhorns won 27-24. It's been pretty tough separating these 2 & I don't see anything different here. 4-5 SU KSU should be able to muster enough momentum to take this to the wire. Let's make way to Manhattan's Bill Snyder Family Stadium to play the KANSAS STATE WILDCATS as my 9* CFB Earlybird Dependable! Boston College vs. Virginia (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-110 Boston College Rating: 8* Battle Of The ACC Also-Rans (LOSS) None of these teams have national title dreams still going. However, Boston College seems to thrive in this given situation. Let's face it, the 4-4 SU Wahoos won't be putting up another 55 on FCS Abilene Christian this week. I believe in Bean-Town QB Phil Jurkovec since (besides Clemson) his offense scored the most points (31) against the Fighting Irish "D" than any other this season. My bottom line says NUMBERS DON'T LIE! This team has habitually shown up when dressed as conference road underdogs going a take-me-to-the-window 17-4-1 ATS! Analytics further stress when BC goes up against .666 or worse opponents (the Cavaliers) in that same role, they post a near-flawless 9-1 mark against the number. With the Eagles having a very strong nucleus back on defense, I'm trusting DC Tem Lukabu (former coach with the Cincinnati Bengals) to thrown in a few wrinkles to his 4-3 scheme to dial-up enough pressures to generate a few turnovers. Let's go to Scott Stadium in Charlottesville to play the 6-4 SU BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 9* Battle Of The ACC Also-Rans! Oregon State vs. Utah (NCAAF) - 10:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 14/-105 Oregon State Rating: 8* PAC-12 Bailout Play (WIN) These Beavers proved last week they were no slouches when they went toe-to-toe with perennial PAC-12 power & intra-state rival Oregon & pulled out a shocking 41-38 outright win (last win versus Oregon was in 16') as 13-point dogs. That represented the 2nd consecutive upset for 3rd-year HC Jonathan Smith as Oregon State also knocked off California in their previous game 31-27. They now take on a winless Utah team of HC Kyle Whittingham that doesn't look remotely close to the talents of last year's 11-win squad. My bottom line says we'll grab a ton of points & ride with OSU whose cashed in 3 consecutive tickets. Look for QB Tristan Gebbia (check status) or capable backup Chance Nolan to keep this one within 2 TD's. Where are we going? Let's go to Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City to play the OREGON STATE BEAVERS (buying to + 17 1/2) as my 8* PAC-12 Bailout Play! NOTES: Another frustrating Saturday that saw a potential winning week fall into mediocrity (3-3) after Boston College failed to make 2nd half adjustments @ Virginia AND talented Oklahoma State couldn't put 4 quarters together. Saturday night ended on a good note with Oregon State coming back to lose by 6 @ Utah while getting 17 1/2. I thought we'd be victimized again as leading PAC-12 rusher & OSU star RB Jermar Jefferson was a last-minute scratch due to COVID-19 contact tracing protocols. It was nice to finally get a break despite Utah getting a 64-yard punt return TD by the Utes' Britain Covey. In summary, I feel there's still a lot of football left with some conference championships & a select amount of bowls plus playoffs to play out. Expect a winning flurry in the end! Mike Handzelek's CFB 2020-21 Overall Seasonal Record: 18-21 46%
 

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