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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 14 Analysis, Review & Notes

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 14 Analysis, Review & Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 5, 2022
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Saturday, December 03, 2022 Fresno State vs. Boise State (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3/-105 Fresno State Rating: 9* Mike's Barking Out Loud Dogger (WIN & ML DOG WIN) Your average joe quickly glances then puts money on the home 9-3 SU Broncos after learning they dismantled these same Bulldogs 40-20 on this field back in Week 6. There's only 1 problem. This time they're not those same Bulldogs. The difference maker this time around will be future NFL QB & Washington Huskies' transfer Jake Haener (2,432 passing yards, 73.5% completion rate & a 17-3 TD/INT ratio but went 13/2 his L5 starts) whose a GIANT upgrade from the 1st meeting when backup Logan Fife (posted a horrible 2/6 TD/INT ratio) was trying to fill in. Since that humbling defeat, HC Jeff Tedford's squad has run off 7 straight wins to reach this game @ 8-4 SU. Tedford matches wits with 2nd-year man Andy Avalos (played LB @ Boise from 01' thru 04') whose not defended the home blue turf like his predecessors Chris Petersen & Bryan Harsin. In fact, the past 2 seasons has witnessed Boise State losing 4 homers to Oklahoma State, Nevada, Air Force LY & BYU TY. Since changing QB's from Hank Bachmeier (who went into the transfer portal after OC Tim Plough was fired in late September-Dirk Koetter is there now) to the freshman Taylen Green, the ground game with George Holani (1,059 rushing yards for 10 TD's) has improved. However, the bright lights & big stage will be a different animal for this freshman QB than in the regular season. Like Green has Holani, so does Haener have dependable RB Jordan Mims (1,078 yards rushing for 14 TD's). In addition, the Bulldogs have 2 excellent playmakers @ WR with Jalen Moreno-Cropper (75 receptions, 991 yards & 5 TD's) & Nikko Remigio (64 catches, 700 yards & 5 TD's) who should get their yards after adjustments are made. My bottom line looks @ some solid analytics pointing directly in our direction. After the Broncos put up a 40+ outing, they come back to go just 1-7 spreadwise in their next game. Boise State has also gone a ticket-ripping 2-5 versus the number when up against double-revenge opponents on their blue turf. This blends nicely since Fresno State counters by going 7-1-1 ATS if playing with double revenge while also turning in a perfect 4-0 against the number (Boise is 1-4 ATS) in Mountain West Conference title games. The Fresno "D" has risen to the occasion over their last 4 games to hold opponents to 334 yards & 14 PPG). The kicker for us has to be HC Jeff Tedford being a take-me-back-to-the-window 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 versus the line in his 15-yr. collegiate career when seeking double revenge. We're rockin' to Albertsons Stadium in Idaho for the MWC Championship to play the FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (buying to + 7 1/2) but play some generous pasta on the ML as my 9 Star Barking Out Loud Dogger! Friday, December 02, 2022 Utah vs. USC (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2.5/-105 Utah Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Friday Night Frenzy Play (WIN & ML DOG WIN) This was close to getting my public missed perception play of the week. However, I'm saving that for another game. Here's the intangibles not too many mushes want to take into account. New HC Lincoln Riley & favored USC just played 2 BLOCKBUSTERS in a row versus UCLA & Notre Dame. Trojans' QB & Heisman hopeful Caleb Williams has thrown for 3,712 yards, has a 66% completion rate, has a lights-out 34/3 TD/INT ratio & has rushed for 351 yards & 10 more TD's. Digger in much deeper reveals the Southern Californians have only faced the 112th (out of 131) toughest schedule in the FBS. I'm afraid that's a far cry from the Utes who played the 6th toughest. Utah QB Cameron Rising is definitely legit passing for 2,639 yards, has a 66.4% completion rate, carries a 22/7 TD/INT ratio & has rushed for 391 yards & 6 more TD's. In the 1st meeting, Rising passed for a career high 415 yards & 5 TD's in a 43-42 win (USC "D" gave up a season-high 562 yards). The Utes also won @ USC last year by a 42-26 count. Rising's no stranger to this game as they defeated Oregon 38-10 in this game last year. The biggest denominator on the field that the Men of Troy could not account for was Utah WR Dalton Kincaid who caught 16 passes for 234 yards in Game 7 this season. While both offenses have compatible numbers with USC holding a 507 to 468 yard edge overall (but Utah a 203 to 122 edge on the ground), the defenses tell quite a different story. Keeping the earlier-mentioned strength of schedule in mind, the Trojans "D" versus the pass ranks 109th (Utah's is @ 36th) & in total defense USC chimes in @ 90th (405 YPG) while the Utes rank 17th (317 YPG). In The Stats (ITS) wise, the Men of Troy went 11-1 with Utah giving them their only deficit. Let's crunch some serious numbers! Same season avenging teams that allow 23.4 PPG coming off a season-ending SU & ATS win in which it was a SU win by more than 8 points, those teams (USC) have gone a no-show 1-11 versus the number in a conference title game. My bottom line says its hard to ignore the Trojans being 1-5 spreadwise versus Utah if coming off a double-digit SU win & a lacking 1-7 versus the number if playing @ a neutral site. Late in the season, USC has posted a 2-8 against the number mark in December games as well as a horrible 2-9 ATS when playing on Fridays. The Utes after scoring 45+ in their previous game have come back to go 4-1 against the number as an underdog versus PAC-12 revenge. Finally, if Utes' HC Kyle Whittingham (in his 18th season) is facing an opponent off a win of more than 10 & they give up 21.5 + PPG, his squad comes back to go 17-1 ATS & 16-2 SU when Utah is coming off a win by 5 or more. Are you pumped & ready? Let's go to Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV to play 9 Stars the UTAH UTES (buying to + 7 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML! NOTES: It was a perfect weekend in CFB as not only did Utah & Fresno State cover the number but also paid heavy dividends on the moneyline. Why? Because HC's Kyle Whittingham & Jeff Tedford are money in certain given situations. Remember these guys around bowl time because they might be another play IF the number & situation supports their squad. This Saturday we have the 123rd meeting of the Army-Navy game @ Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. It will also be the FCS quarter-finals with both finalists from last season still in it (North Dakota State beat Montana State 38-10) along with the Division II semi-finals (12-1 Ferris State the favorite) & Division III (13-0 Mount Union the favorite). The 43-game Bowl/National Championship slate has been set to begin December 16th. Some of the notable matchups are as follows: Dec. 30th Orange Bowl (#6 Tennessee versus #10 Clemson), Dec. 30th Gator Bowl (#19 Notre Dame versus #20 South Carolina), Dec. 31st Sugar Bowl (#5 Alabama versus #11 Kansas State), Dec. 31st FBS Semi-Final @ Fiesta Bowl @ 4:30 PM (#2 Michigan versus #3 T.C.U.), Dec. 31st FBS Semi-Final @ Peach Bowl @ 8 PM (#1 Georgia versus #4 Ohio State). There will be no bowl games New Year's Day. Jan. 2nd Citrus Bowl (#16 L.S.U. versus #32 Purdue) Jan. 2nd Cotton Bowl (#8 Southern California versus #14 Tulane), Jan 2nd Rose Bowl (#7 Utah versus #9 Penn State) & finally on Jan. 9th the FBS National Championship @ SoFi Stadium in Englewood, CA @ 7:30 PM will take place between the semi-final winners from Dec. 31st. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 38-21 for 64% (Ranked 2nd in winning percentage @ VTD in CFB)

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