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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 13 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 2, 2020
   
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Saturday, November 28, 2020 Penn State vs. Michigan (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1/-110 Penn State Rating: 9* Primed-Up Bowl Game Visitor Play (WIN) It was a very tough road yesterday as Liberty HC Hugh Freeze played his starting QB in the 2nd half WITH a comfy lead despite Coastal Carolina looming on deck. Today's a new day & we'll look @ 2 bad Big ten teams duking it out in empty Ann Arbor. There's many factors that take hold on this play the public is NOT figuring. Michigan left MUCH on that field last week winning a triple-OT game over Rutgers. No, 0-5 SU Penn State isn't going bowling. However, THIS week they'll play like its their bowl game with only Rutgers & Michigan State left. It appears QB Cade McNamara is going to start his 2nd game after he pulled one out of the fire last week. My bottom line says Penn State will minimize turnovers & continue to rule the stats (mainly gaining 58 yards MORE than their opponents this season). On the flip side, the Wolverines are @ -36 YPG coming in. The analytics ALSO kick in as the Nittany Lions' defense have been holding foes to 78 yards BELOW their season average. Michigan fails in comparison as their opponents have gained 76 yards MORE per their season average. Remember, November is also the hardest month for CFB mushes to grab hold of a consistent favorite. Based on crunching several numbers, we'll FADE here with the public all over the Maize N' Blue since they've blown out Penn State 42-7 & 49-10 their last 2 visits to this venue. Let's go to Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor to take the visiting PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my Prime-Up Bowl Game Visitor Play! Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -125 Georgia State Rating: 8* Modern Day Hate Rivalry Survivor (WIN) When these 2 meet each year, this game has been strangely-coined "The Modern Day Hate" rivalry down in Georgia. This closely-contested game features a BIG revenge angle with the home field Panthers. HC Chad Lunsford's bunch have beaten Georgia State 38-10 last year & by a 35-14 count @ this venue 2 seasons ago. The Panthers come in 4-4 SU but could easily be 7-1 having lost 3 close ones. The only game they weren't in was a head-scratching 51-0 loss @ home to Coastal Carolina in Game 5. My bottom line says you have to like up & coming freshman QB Cornelius Brown IV whose already accounted for 18 TD's (13 passing & 5 running). They are a senior-laden club returning 16 starters (8 on offense & 8 on defense) that should get the job done @ home where they've won 7 of 10 SU. I'll be banking on HC Shawn Elliott getting his troops up as we go to Georgia State Stadium (the old Turner Field) in Atlanta to play the GEORGIA STATE PANTHERS as my Modern Day Hate Rivalry Survivor! Maryland vs. Indiana (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 12/-110 Maryland Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Attention Grabber (LOSS) Too much attention is given toward these 4-1 SU Hoosiers who are 5-0 ATS as well as their 4th-year HC Tom Allen being a light-out 11-1 when installed as a home favorite. I feel that Indiana left it ALL on the field last week when they rallied from a 28-point deficit before finally getting edged by Ohio State 42-35 in Columbus. This is a BIG sandwich game for them since a game @ Wisconsin is immediately on deck. On the other hand, HC Mike Locksley & his 2-1 SU Maryland team will be as fresh as they can be with a few weeks off to prepare for this game. Remember, these Terrapins have been no slouches this season as they gained 10.2 yards a play versus Minnesota in a 45-44 win as a 19-point dogs. QB Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua's brother & a transfer from Alabama) looks like the real deal as he ALSO led his charges to another 35-19 upset win (as 27-point dogs) versus Penn State in State College. My bottom line says even though Indiana QB Michael Penix is super-talented as well, the number shouts out loud & clear when getting more than 2 TD's (a familiar spot for Tagovailoa). These 2 have played close the last 2 seasons with the Hoosiers winning 34-28 on the road last season & by a 34-32 count @ this venue 2 years ago. With a dual-threat QB like Tagovailoa, it's hard not to like Boys from College Park here. Let's go to Memorial Stadium in Bloomington to play the MARYLAND TERRAPINS (buying to + 14 1/2) as my 9* CFB Attention Grabber! Duke vs. Georgia Tech (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1/-117 Duke Rating: 9* Mike's ACC Game Of The Week (LOSS) This usually is a pretty good coaching matchup featuring Duke's David Cutcliffe versus Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson. Before Johnson's departure 2 seasons ago, he compiled a 21-16 SU record over his last 3 seasons. Enter in new HC Geoff Collins. Collins is returning a decent nucleus this season but his team has only shown shades of brilliance since his arrival going just 5-14 SU entering into this fracas. Their 2-5 SU season this year has featured a 73-7 loss to Clemson, 48-27 defeat @ the hands of Boston College & an ugly loss in the Carrier Dome to (1-7 SU) Syracuse 38-21. They are ALSO coming off their "Bowl Game" having loss to Notre Dame 31-13 @ home. My bottom line points out that these Blue Devils handily whipped the Ramblin' Wreck 41-23 a year ago in Durham & have now won 5 of their last 6 in this series. Duke may not look the part @ 2-6 SU, but Cutcliffe (an Alabama grad under the legendary Paul "Bear" Bryant) should be able to exploit a pedestrian GT defense using QB Chase Brice (transfer from Clemson). Brice (1,722 passing yards) should be pumped up since he grew up in the Atlanta suburbs & we'll look @ this like a homecoming. In addition, hard to believe the Yellow Jackets under turnover-prone freshman QB Jeff Sims (throws a pick every 17 throws) can step it up after such a prolonged time between games (haven't played since that Halloween loss to the Fighting Irish). Let's build some CFB momentum finally as we go to the Bermuda Grass of Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta to play the DUKE BLUE DEVILS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 8* ACC Game Of The Week! North Texas vs. Texas San Antonio (NCAAF) - 3:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-105 North Texas Rating: 8* 8* Points Are Golden Play (LOSS) These 2 have like talents. However, HC Seth Littrell & his 3-3 SU Mean Green have built up some serious momentum winning convincingly @ Middle Tennessee State 52-35 & then (even though off a few weeks hiatus) come back to handle Rice @ home 27-17 last week. They shook off the rust nicely since that was their first game since mid-October & are set up to win with sophomore QB Jason Bean (7/1 TD/INT ratio) whose limited his mistakes after 1st-year growing pains. I understand this is a revenge game since North Texas embarrassed the Roadrunners 45-3 last year for their 3rd straight in this series. However, I don't believe the gap hasn't closed to where we flip as of yet. Let's go to the Alamodome in san Antonio to play the NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 8* Points Are Golden Play! San Jose State vs. Boise State (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 11.5/-110 San Jose State Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (CANCELED) I feel this one is super-ripe for the picking on the underdog Spartans here! They're not only 4-0 SU, but have played Boise State competitively losing by a 52-45 count last season (putting up 495 yards of total offense). I'm sure HC 4th-year HC Brent Brennan has his charges juiced up up against a Broncos team who've beaten San Jose State SU all 14 times they've played dating back to 1978. In this game, I believe the BETTER QB falls on the Spartans' side with senior QB Nick Starkel (980 passing yards, 70.1% completions & a 9/2 TD/INT ratio) over Boise's sophomore signal-caller Hank Bachmeier (748 passing yards, 65.5% completions & a 5/1 TD/INT ratio) who hasn't had an excellent offensive line to protect him this far. Since this game just might be a preview of the Mountain West title game (they'll take the top 2 from a 1 division format instead of originally taking the 2 divisional champs). The Boise side is ALSO coming off some disrupted chemistry as 5 players stayed home & 7 tested positive for COVID-19 on Saturday when they edged Hawaii 40-32. My bottom line says we'll gladly side with the underdog king of the Mountain West in HC Brennan whose a stellar 8-1 ATS when installed as a double-digit conference underdog. Get PUMPED, get READY as we go to the blue turf of Albertsons Stadium in Idaho to play the SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS (buying to a strategic + 14 1/2) as my 9* CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Friday, November 27, 2020 Massachusetts vs. Liberty (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 37.5/-110 Massachusetts Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (LOSS) What frame of mind do these Flames have after their undefeated season went under (by a slim 15-14 score) with that blocked FG @ the buzzer versus NC State? What's their motivation KNOWING they have a BIG game on deck with undefeated Coastal Carolina? Nothing much. This is especially true since they already know they've breezed through Walt Bell's Minutemen 63-21 (730 total yards) last year in Amherst. The interesting stat the past 2 meetings is that both teams (yes, even UMass in 18' with 777) put up over an amazing 700 yards of total offense. This betting number is so significant because UMass's average loss chimes in around 35.8 PPG. However, there's other things to take into consideration. The bigger question is this. How long does HC Hugh Freeze leave his starting QB Malik Willis (transfer from Auburn) in with maybe bigger than a bowl game, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers waiting in the wings? An advantage for us says the odds-makers seem to be giving the Boys From Amherst more than enough points as a dog covering 2 of their 3 contests (all against bowl teams from LY) thus far. Yes, this is only their 4th game (all on the road). My bottom line looks @ the public being over-eager to RIDE Liberty based off their SU record of 8-1 & their stellar ATS mark of 9-2 the last 11. Bettors are salivating knowing that Freeze is notorious for running up scores against the patsies. Not here! The majority of points the Flames produced this season are when QB Willis (15-0 TD/INT ratio, 744 yards rushing for 8 more TD's) is on the field. I feel this is clearly a game of 2 halves. The first half Liberty puts up points to pull away. The second half Freeze empties the bench to keep star Willis prime for next week. As a result, the underdog keeps this within 5 scores. Let's go down to Williams Stadium in Lynchburg to play the MASSACHUSETTS MINUTEMEN (buying to + 38 1/2) as my 8* CFB Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! NOTES: I thought we had a 5-2 week going but the San Jose State + 14 1/2 play was scratched due to COVID protocol & Maryland's missed FG wound up costing the backdoor cover. Tagovailoa had the worse day of his young career with 3 INT's. I felt the North Texas football team was totally unprepared for UTSA in their blowout loss. Even though Duke committed 5 TO's losing to Georgia Tech, Penn State never relinquished the lead in their 27-17 win @ Michigan. They held the Wolverines under 300 yards of total offense. It wound up being a 2-4 week as we bagged Georgia State with a great passing game but was totally fooled by Liberty keeping Willis in the 2nd half with a large lead (he was injured so we'll see how they fare from here on out) as a backdoor cover was eminent with + 38 1/2 if Freeze coached smart. At any rate, I'll be back during a BIG signature weekend in CFB & the NFL. The tide turns in CFB! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Overall Record: 15-18 45%
 

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