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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 13 Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 27, 2022
   
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Saturday, November 26, 2022 UTEP vs. Texas San Antonio (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +17/-110 UTEP Rating: 9* Mike's Conference USA Eye-Catcher (WIN) It's been 1 year since the nationally televised game between these 2 @ the Sun Bowl in El Paso that was won by the Roadrunners 44-23. HC Jeff Traylor's squad is a combined 21-4 SU the past 2 seasons (9-2 this season) so there will be a high overhead if backing UTSA. While Texas-San Antonio can score (rank 12th in the nation in scoring), their defense ranks a distant 86th in yards yielded. What we need to focus on is what lies immediately on deck for UTSA. The answer is the Conference USA Title where they will go back to for the 2nd consecutive season (beat Western Kentucky 49-41 last year there) up against the more-probable North Texas Mean Green. My bottom line says HC Dana Dimel will have his charges focused (with QB Calvin Brownholtz @ the helm) on the upset as they need 1 more win to be declared bowl eligible @ 6-6. If their defense performs up to expectations (ranked 36th), they can make this one interesting. Remember, the Roadrunners pulled their starting QB & some other starters in the 2nd quarter last season @ North Texas in the finale in order to stay fresh for the upcoming championship. In the numbers reveal UTSA being a ticket-ripping 5-16 spreadwise @ home when matched up with a team with a losing road record. On the flip side, the Miners surely get pumped against winning teams as witnessed by a nifty 5-2 spread mark. Let's grab that 3 TD number & watch the magic happen again! We'll gladly go down to the Alamodome in San Antonio to play the UTEP MINERS (buying to + 21 1/2) as my 9 Star Conference USA Eye-Catcher! Illinois vs. Northwestern (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +14.5/-105 Northwestern Rating: 9* Mike's Best CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Some teams have packed it in that are no longer bowl eligible. HC Pat Fitzgerald's (in his 17th season) 1-10 SU Wildcats aren't on of them. SU records could be deceiving when trying to figure who covers the spread. I believe that's certainly the case here as the Purple & White have a matter of revenge on their minds for a embarrassing 47-14 setback in Urbana-Champaign in the regular season finale last season. That win ended NW's 6-game winning streak & returned the coveted Land of Lincoln Trophy (formerly known as the Sweet Sioux Tomahawk) back to Illinois. How has the Wildcats fared versus most of the Big Ten elite? They've lost to Penn State 17-7 (covered as 25 1/2-point dogs), lost to Ohio State 21-7 (covered as 38-point dogs) & most recently lost to Purdue 17-9 (covering as 17 1/2-point dogs). My bottom line points directly @ a Fighting Illini squad that just finished a brutal war losing to Michigan 19-17 last week. I further feel DC Jim O'Neil has the knack for shutting down winning teams especially here since this game acts like NW's bowl game. They now face a 7-4 SU Bret Bielema squad whose on an off surface (grass) that comes in riding a 3-game losing streak (averaging 19 PPG) & take on a team that's covered as a dog 5 times this season. I'm riding the wave in this season finale for them by grabbing the NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS (buying to + 17 1/2) with some pasta on the ML as my 9 star Best CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Hawaii vs. San Jose State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +15/-110 Hawaii Rating: 8* Mike's Mountain West Game Of The Week (WIN) This game is Hawaii's bowl game as they won't be going to the post-season with their 3-9 SU record. However, HC Timmy Chang (1st-Year HC who currently holds the school's all-time career passing record) will get his charges up one final time in hopes of bringing the Dick Tomey Legacy Trophy back to the islands (San Jose State has had it the past 2 years). Little Sparty comes in 6-4 SU for HC Brent Brennan but have dropped their past 5 versus the number. My bottom line says it's tough to back a team ranked 98th in total offense if pushing the line over 3 TD's. Hawaii's been competitive in the 2nd half since 3 out of their last 4 games have been decided by one score. Chang's offense has clicked to the tune of 65 points the past 2 against UNLV & Utah State. The Spartans are just looking for a "W" here before they get ready to go to a minor bowl. Let's fly up to CEFCU Stadium in San Jose to play the HAWAII RAINBOW WARRIORS (buying to + 21 1/2) as my 8 Star Mountain West Game Of The Week! Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2/-105 Texas Tech Rating: 10* Mike's CFB 12 Star Regular Season Game Of The Year (WIN & SU ML Win) Of all the games on their schedule, HC Joey McGuire & his 6-5 SU Red Raiders circled 2 of them. One was the Texas Longhorns which they upset 37-34 as 7-point home dogs @ this venue in Game 4 AND the other is the Oklahoma Sooners. Yes, this is the same school who has beaten Texas Tech 10 times in a row (in last win, QB Seth Doege threw for 441 & snapped a 39-game Okie home winning streak in Norman back in 11' with a 41-38 win) by putting up freakish numbers over the last 7 averaging about 57 PPG. This year's rendition in Lubbock has been lights-out @ home going 5-1 SU & has averaged 40 PPG. On the flip side of the coin, new HC Brent Venables (spent 13 years under Bob Stoops before being DC @ Clemson for the last 10) & the Sooner Schooner has gone 6-5 SU in his 1st year in relief of Lincoln Riley who now hails @ USC. That's a far cry from their usual 11-12 win seasons under Riley who went 55-10 there. What changed? The defense under DC Ted Roof (was HC @ Duke for 5 Yrs.) with help from Todd Bates has had its troubles (only 5 starters back) ranking 112th in total yards (437 YPG) & 114th against the run (191 YPG). This team hasn't traveled well & that's especially true versus intra-state teams like Texas (lost 49-0) & TCU (lost 55-24). Their offensive output (5 players back there also) hasn't been close to par as they come in averaging 32 PPG & that's identical to the Red Raiders. Let's face it, QB Dillon Gabriel (2,476 yards passing with a 18/5 TD/INT ratio) isn't Caleb Williams so he relies more heavily on the ground game led by Tennessee transfer & RB Eric Gray (1,203 yards rushing, 11 TD's) who shares carries with Jovantae Barnes & Marcus Major. The Red Raiders counter with a balanced attack ranking 28th overall (446 YPG) that features 2 backs with Tahj Brooks & SaRodorick Thompson who tallied up 1,159 yards for 11 TD's on the ground. My bottom line says you have to love the facts that the series host is 8-1 ATS AND that CFB home teams in their Last Home Game coming off a SU underdog win seeking revenge turn in a take-me-back-to-the-window 22-7-1 ATS mark since 19'. Let's remember that the already-challenged Oklahoma "D" should be running on empty after being on the field for 102 plays by intra-state rival Oklahoma State in their Bedlam Series 28-13 home win last week. Let's high step it into Lubbock's Jones AT&T Stadium to play the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (buying to + 4 1/2) with a bigger play on the ML Dog line as my 12 Star Regular Season Game Of The Year! Oregon vs. Oregon State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3/-110 Oregon State Rating: 8* Mike's Saturday Night Bailout Play (WIN & SU ML Win) If you missed my Reg. Seas. GOY earlier, you won't want to miss this heated 126th edition of the "Civil War" rivalry (playing for the Platypus Trophy) that dates back to 1894 (5th longest). 9-2 SU Oregon has had the Beavers' number of late winning 12 out of their last 14 including a 38-29 win in Eugene last season. New HC Dan Lanning takes over for the Ducks after being the DC @ Georgia the previous 3 seasons. He's paired up against 5th-year HC Jonathan Smith (3rd in career passing yardage) who formerly QB'd the Beavers right after the millennium. Speaking of QB's, a major concern for the Ducks' QB Bo Nix (has a 24/5 TD/INT ratio) has to be how healed his ankle is. He'll take on an 8-3 SU Oregon State squad that's been lights-out @ home going 14-5 ATS & have Freshman QB Ben Gulbranson at the top of the charts whose thrown 1 INT in his last 6 games. OSU's only blemish @ home where they're 5-1 SU is a 17-14 loss to U.S.C.. It's tough to ignore the Boys From Corvallis being a perfect 12-0 ATS & 11-1 SU their past 12 home games. The pressure for this game is clearly on Oregon (while like Iowa yesterday) is in a must win situation in order to make it to the PAC-12 Championship game versus U.S.C. on Friday, December 2nd @ Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. My bottom line checks out how Oregon does when OSU has revenge. In this given situation, the Ducks have gone a ticket-ripping 8-15 versus the number & an even worse 1-5 if favored by single-digits. HC Smith is also a perfect 6-0 SU & ATS when the Beavers have revenge. While Oregon possesses the better offense (when healthy), the Orange & Black rate in the Top 25 in total defense compared to the Green N' Gold who rank a distant 81st. The dagger for us has to be the Ducks who turn in a no-show 1-4 spread mark when installed as conference road chalk of 8 or less. We're rollin' into Reser Stadium in Corvallis to play the OREGON STATE BEAVERS (buying to + 7 1/2) with a little pasta on the ML as my * Star Saturday Night Bailout Play! Friday, November 25, 2022 Arizona State vs. Arizona (NCAAF) - 3:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -4/-110 Arizona Rating: 8* Mike's PAC-10 Rivalry Game Of The Week (WIN) Many prognosticators are looking @ Arizona's 31-20 home loss to Washington State & feel it's going to follow suit here. I feel this was a CLEAR look-ahead toward this "Duel In The Desert" tilt that they have circled. Why so much emphasis? Because it was @ this venue where the Sun Devils pummeled the Wildcats 70-7 during the pandemic that postponed possession of the Territorial Cup Trophy. I further feel Cats' QB Jayden De Laura will rebound in a BIG way off a 4 INT day versus the Cougars. He's going up against Sun Devils' defense that's ranked near the bottom of the FBS (102nd) & gives up 416 YPG. My bottom line says interim HC Shaun Aguano isn't Herm Edwards. While Arizona's "D" rivals ASU's, the Zona' offense chimes in @ 20th compared to the Sun Devils ranking a distant 79th. If you're looking for the last time ASU has covered the spread, you'd have to go back to the Stanford game on October 22nd (5 weeks ago). The Wildcats have also turned the better body of work of late as they travelled to UCLA 2 weeks ago & left with a 34-28 win as 20-point dogs. Even though we lost with Zona' on these pages last week, I feel a comeback is in full order. In the numbers show ASU (just 7 starters back combined on both sides of the ball) comes in @ a limping 1-5 ATS their last 6 in November & a lacking 2-6 spreadwise their last 8 roadies. The Wildcats counter with a 5-1 spread mark coming off a SU loss & carry a perfect 4-0 versus the number when matched up against losing teams. Let's go to Arizona Stadium in Tucson for the 96th meeting of these schools to play the ARIZONA WILDCATS (buying to a key + 3 1/2) as my 8 Star PAC-10 Rivalry Game Of The Week! Nebraska vs. Iowa (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -10.5/-110 Iowa Rating: 8* Mike's Big 10 Survivor Play (LOSS) I feel the Huskers' offense will have trouble moving the football matched up against a Hawkeyes' "D" that ranks 6th in the country in total defense & #1 in YPP (Yards Per Point) allowed. Even though HC Kirk Ferentz' (24th season in Iowa City) offense has struggled (ranks 123rd in scoring), they'll get a breather going up against a porous Nebraska "D" that ranks 108th overall (427 YPG) & 116th in rushing "D" (195 YPG). My bottom line says there's no chance Iowa gets caught napping as a win here advances them into the Big 10 Championship on December 3rd @ Lucas Oil Stadium for the 2nd straight season. Remember that Iowa has won 7 straight SU in this series but covered only 4 of those. The Big Red come in 3-8 SU & have been eliminated from any post-season berths. Here's where we're going. Since the premium will be higher with the Hawkeyes winning & covering 4 straight, we'll go over to Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City to lay the lumber hammering the IOWA HAWKEYES on the ML as my 8 Star Big 10 Survivor. UCLA vs. California (NCAAF) - 4:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -11/-110 UCLA Rating: 9* Mike's PAC-12 Rivalry Dominator (WIN) Here's another traditional rivalry of sister schools as they'll be meeting for the 93rd time (1st game in 33' & its the 2nd longest non-interrupted rivalry) playing it on "All-University Weekend" in the so-called Bear Bowl. These 2 have major separation in YPP margin with the Bruins coming in ranked 9th compared to the 4-7 SU Golden Bears being a distant 95th. We saw this game last season with Chip Kelly's charges starting slow before kicking it in for a lopsided 42-14. In fact, the Boys From Westwood have out-scored 76-24 over the past 2. Cal returns just 8 starters combined on both sides of the ball & are one-dimensional as they come in 121st in rushing (55 YPG over the last 7 games). My bottom line says the Golden Bears will be hard-pressed to match the firepower of dual-threat Bruins' QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (2,694 passing yards, 24/7 TD/INT ratio, 544 rushing yards & 9 more TD's) since they come in a bottom-of-the-barrel 126th versus the pass in the nation. A win here & the Bruins should qualify for a major bowl turning in a 10-2 SU record. Since the premiums are inflated, we'll go to California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley to lay the ML juice on the UCLA BRUINS as my 9 Star PAC-12 Rivalry Dominator! Thursday, November 24, 2022 Mississippi State vs. Mississippi (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +2/-110 Mississippi State Rating: 8* Mike's Egg Bowl Survivor (WIN & SU ML Win) Here we are on Turkey Day & boy there's been a lot of rumors concerning Ole Miss HC Lane Kiffen (only 3rd season there) leaving the program for Auburn. This can be nothing but a negative (regardless of what you're hearing) on the campus @ Oxford. Things have been going downhill for Kiffen since the 8-3 SU Rebels lost a hard-fought 30-24 decision to Bama' here 2 games ago. Last week, they lost as a road favorite @ Arkansas 42-27 that makes it 3 losses in their last 4. This 119th meeting's winner (1st met in 1901) gets "The Golden Egg Trophy" & I believe that distinction goes to the visitor. HC Mike Leach is more than hungry for his 1st trophy (currently 0-2) & by far has the best signal-caller in local Brandon, MS product in JR. QB Will Rogers (the only true frosh to ever start for Leach) heading in. In the past 2 seasons, Rogers has passed for 8,213 yards with an awesome 68/14 TD/INT ratio. He gets to face an Ole Miss defense that's given up 12 TD passes with no INT's down its recent stretch. This series has been very one-sided concerning its visitor that's made 7 consecutive return trips to the window versus the number & 5 of 7 on the ML. While Mississippi has PADED offensive numbers (faced Troy, Central Arkansas, Tulsa & Georgia Tech), the Bulldogs have clearly the better "D" ranking 39th compared to the Rebels' 73rd-despite the easier schedule. My bottom line says you have to like Leach & Co. (versus no Matt Corral this year for Mississippi) who come in with more veterans on both sides of the ball (Miss St. 17, Miss. 12) & with double-revenge. I further feel DC Zach Arnett with his 3-4 scheme led by WLB Jett Johnson & & MLB Nathaniel Watson will be ready for the Ole Miss backfield duo of RB's Quinshon Judkins & Zachary Evans. Let's travel to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford to play the MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (buying to + 4 1/2) with a sprinkle of pasta on the ML as my 8 Star Egg Bowl Survivor! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 36-21 for a rolling 63% Regular Season Game of the Year winner on TEXAS TECH + the points & on the ML! 7-2 Week with 3 ML Dog winners
 


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