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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 12 Analysis/Review/Notes/College Playoff Update


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 21, 2021
   
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Saturday, November 20, 2021Arizona State vs. Oregon State (NCAAF) - 10:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-110 Oregon State Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play (WIN & ON DOG ML) They were calling for HC Jonathan's Smith's (he was the Beavers' QB from 98' to 01') head in Corvallis after a dismal 9-22 SU his 1st 3 seasons. With 10 offensive & 9 defensive starters back this season, the Beaver faithful are singing a different tune as OSU has already become bowl-eligible @ 6-4 SU that includes an early 45-27 win @ USC & a 42-34 outright win over Utah @ this venue a month ago. The 9 lined games this season for Oregon State has seen the home team cover 8 of them. I love the fact that the Beavers have not squandered their PAC-12 dog chances covering & winning both times. I further believe Arizona State HC Herm Edwards' bunch left a lot out there having to come from behind with 3 late TD's in the last 6 minutes to pull out a 35-30 road win over a vanilla 4-6 SU Washington Huskies' squad. Even with the win, the Pitchforks are still a struggling team when travelling to play in Colorado, Oregon, Utah or Washington as witnessed by an anemic 2-5 SU record in games from October through December. The last time these 2 played @ this venue 2 seasons ago saw OSU pull out a nail-biting 35-34 win as 2 1/2-point dogs. Other analytics scream the Beavers' side. Not only is ASU just 1-4 ATS their last 5 against winning teams, but Oregon State is a strong 4-2 SU & ATS when installed as home pups. My bottom line says facing back-to-back road games combined with their Duel In The Desert on deck (for the oldest CFB rivalry trophy, the Territorial Cup since 1899) with the Arizona Wildcats, the situational edge is clearly the OSU side. Let's go up north to Reser Stadium in Corvallis to play the OREGON STATE BEAVERS (buying to + 7 1/2 & forcing a double-digit road weary win while ALSO sprinkling some pasta on the ML) as my 9* CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play! South Florida vs. Tulane (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-105 South Florida Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (LOSS) When HC Willie Fritz (in his 6th season since coming over from Georgia Southern) opened the season by giving Oklahoma a big scare before losing 40-25, it looked like a promising season. It's turned out quite the opposite & the worst of his career. Even though Fritz returned 10 on offense, his team beat Morgan State in Week 2 & then went on a 8-game losing skein to head into this one @ 1-9. The Green Wave left a lot on the field last week when a potential regulation game-winning FG, a 26-yard chip shot by veteran K Merek Glover was missed. The game went OT with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane prevailing 20-13. On the flip side, 2nd-year HC Jeff Scott's squad (3-16 in 2 years) is still having growing pains @ 2-8 SU. However, they've been competitive against Houston & Cincinnati by putting up 70 total points those last 2. The Bulls (with 9 starters back on offense & on defense) are 4-1 ATS their last 5. My bottom line says I like the fact South Florida responds well after their final home game (8-2 ATS here in that situation) AND when off a SU loss (4-0 versus the number. Tulane QB Michael Pratt might have an edge but I'm still just as high on USF's speedy Freshman QB Timmy McClain. He'll keep this competitive & close. Let's go to Yulman Stadium in New Orleans to play the SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS as my 9* CFB Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Iowa State vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-110 Iowa State Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Strongest Play On The Board (WIN off the BUY) I'm looking for ISU for seasoned-veteran QB Brock Purdy to rise to the occasion here! He & play-making RB Breece Hall have a lot of experience (played twice LY-won by 7 & loss by 6) taking on Oklahoma DC Alex Grinch different defensive schemes. My red flag on the Boomer Schooners' "D" was raised immediately when 2-8 SU Kansas kept their offense on the field for a quarter before losing in the end 35-23 just a few weeks back. Even though Iowa State had their shortcomings early with losses to Iowa & Baylor, they did give Oklahoma State their only loss of the season, 24-21. They should be more than eager to get that bad taste out of their mouths after losing to Texas Tech 41-38 on a walk-off 62-yard FG by Jonathan Garibay. Let's get into some VERY strong numbers leaning hard in our direction. Not only is Oklahoma a miserable 0-5 ATS @ home versus the Cyclones when coming off a SU favorite loss, the Sooners when coming off their 1st SU loss are also a ticket-ripping 2-7 versus the number versus teams who give up less than 23 PPG. ISU has a TOP 10 defense in the nation while Okie's "D" is a distant 74th out of 130. My bottom line looks carefully into how Iowa State HC Matt Campbell (6th season here since coming from Toledo) handles teams off being upset. The key criteria to look for is when Campbell is in an underdog role AND faces a team who was upset as a favorite. In this given situation, the Cyclones have come back EACH TIME to go a perfect 6-0 ATS. Off a SU loss & upset roles have been habitually synonymous with playing the Matt Campbell side. He's not only 8-2 versus the number when HIS team is off being upset but ALSO is a not too shabby 20-8 ATS @ ISU when off a SU loss. This game has a TD or less outcome written all over it! Let's jet to out to Gaylord Family Memorial Stadium to play the IOWA STATE CYCLONES (buying to + 7 1/2 AND sprinkling some pasta on the ML) as my 9* CFB Strongest Play On The Board! Nebraska vs. Wisconsin (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 10/-105 Nebraska Rating: 8* Mike's Big Ten Sleeper Play (WIN) On the surface, the Cornhuskers don't look like much @ 3-7 SU. Digging in much deeper reveals a team that's been in EVERY game against top teams in the nation. They lost @ Oklahoma 23-16, lost 23-20 in OT @ Michigan State, got edged 32-29 by a strong Michigan squad @ home & gave 4th-ranked Ohio State a scare 2 weeks ago in Lincoln before the Buckeyes pulled it out 26-17. HC Scott Frost (4th year @ his alma mater since coming over from UCF) seems to be moving in the right direction for the future. He just got a restructured contract ($4 million for 2022 with a 7.5 million buyout) where mutually agreed metrics will determine if he's kept or extended with raise for another season. He's cleaned house by firing 4 out of his 5 offensive assistants. This game is strength against strength with Wisconsin's # 1 defense taking on the Huskers' offense that's averaging 459.2 YPG. This series has been a road series all the way with the last 4 going to the visitor ATS. While Wisconsin has beaten Nebraska by 16, 17 & 21 the past 3, I feel the Badgers just get the "W" (with a tough Minnesota roadie on deck) & solidify their stronghold on their 7th Big Ten 10 Championship appearance in 11 years. My bottom line says its hard to ignore Frost's strong 5-1-1 ATS career record with road revenge. Frost's squad is RESTED & FOCUSED with 2 weeks prep to Chryst & Wisky's 1. Let's make way to legendary Camp Randall Stadium in Madison to play the NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (buying to + 11 1/2) as my 8* Big Ten Sleeper Play! UCLA vs. USC (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-105 USC Rating: 8* Mike's PAC-12 Donnybrook Play (LOSS) Don't let the mushes fool you! Yes, HC Chip Kelly has his bruins pointed in the right direction @ 6-4 SU. But let's not over-react to the difference in personnel because it's not that much! The key factors for this one are need & freshness. U.C.L.A. are already 6-4 SU & are going bowling. U.S.C. is just 4-5 SU & needs 2 wins their final 3 (B.Y.U. & California remain after this) to obtain bowl eligibility. The mushes are AL OVER the Uclans after hearing true freshman QB Jaxson Dart has been named starting QB. In reality, the Trojans actually caught a break giving them close to 2 weeks to prepare for this fierce rivalry (going since 1929) that gets the Victory Bell Trophy for the victory. U.S.C. still has Kedon Slovis backing up Dart who passed for a school-record 515 yards & 4 TD's versus the Bruins in a 43-38 win last year. Extra prep time is key for U.S.C. (they're also 9-3 ATS as a dog with rest) as their game with Cal last week was postponed until December 4th (lone FBS game that day) do to 47 positive COVID tests on the Golden Bears' side. Other numbers dictate the Trojans have RULED @ this site winning the past 10 out of 11 SU (8-3 ATS). For those who lean heavily on the double revenge-exact angle, don't! The past 4 of these instances have seen Kelly's Heroes go an anemic 0-3-1 SU. When it looks like U.S.C. isn't much (with a winning percentage of ,750 or less), U.C.L.A. has gone a perfect 0-5 SU & ATS. Solidifying our cause is the Trojans perfect 6-0 spread record @ home if installed as a dog with a losing SU record. Let's go to site of the 1st ever Super Bowl (Chiefs & Packers), the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to play the U.S.C. Trojans (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 8* PAC-12 Donnybrook Play! NOTES/CFB PLAYOFF UPDATE: Read Separate Article Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 12 Record: 3-2 for 60% CFB Record L3 Weeks: 14-5 for 74% Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Overall Record: 38-30 for 56%
 


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