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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 11 Analysis/review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 14, 2021
   
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Saturday, November 13, 2021 Western Kentucky vs. Rice (NCAAF) - 2:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -18/-110 Western Kentucky Rating: 8* Conference USA Bowl-Bounder Play (WIN) HC Tyson Helton & his Hilltoppers from Bowling Green, KY took it on the chin last season when they finished 5-7. This year's rendition is 5-4 SU & is looking to become bowl-bound with 1 win in their final 3. They've performed quite well as double-digit favorites (4-1 ATS). Their 4 covers were when they beat Tennessee-Martin 59-21 (-24 1/2), handled Old Dominion 43-20 (- 13 1/2), crushed Charlotte 45-13 (- 19 1/2) & romped over Middle Tennessee State 48-21 (- 17 1/2). WKU's record is deceiving since it played a seasoned scheduled with losses versus Army, Indiana & Michigan State. Their defense can generate turnovers as witnessed last week when they went a +7 in turnover differential. My bottom line says we'll trust Bailey Zappe & his offense whose averaging a stellar 43.2 PPG versus conference opponents & are 7th in the nation in scoring. Let's go to Rice Stadium in Houston to play the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS (buying to a key - 1 3 1/2) as my 8* Conference USA Bowl-Bounder Play! Syracuse vs. Louisville (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-110 Syracuse Rating: 10* Mike's ACC Game Of The Week (LOSS) With N.C State & Pittsburgh left on the schedule, this is the game Syracuse (5-4 SU) has circled to become bowl-eligible. HC Dino "Under The Hot Seat" Babers has the clear advantage with 2 weeks to prepare for this while HC Scott Satterfield (16-19 SU @ Louisville) & his 4-5 SU Cardinals left a lot on that field in a 30-24 loss to Clemson @ this venue. Remember, this is the 3rd year Syracuse has to play here in a row. They have BIG revenge for a 30-0 embarrassment last year when they were forced to start backup QB JaCobian Morgan. They're NIGHT & DAY different from that team. They were 0-11 In The Stats then while being 8-1 in that category now. On offense, they're +11 PPG & +151 YPG better. On defense, they've improved by +10 PPG & +146 YPG & are ranked 14th in total "D" in the nation. My bottom line says the Red & Black Cardinals sit just 1-9 SU & 2-8 ATS when up against ACC teams coming off back-to-back SU wins. The Orange have had all 3 conference losses by exactly 3 points each (Florida State, Wake Forest in OT & Clemson). Let's roll to Cardinal Stadium to play the SYRACUSE ORANGE (buying to a SAVORY + 7 1/2) as my 10 Star ACC Game Of The Week! Texas A&M vs. Mississippi (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -130 Texas A&M Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Lane Kiffin has continued to get a lot of love. This game will be won in the trenches. The trenches tell me that Texas A&M RB Isaiah Spiller (382 rushing yards the last 3 weeks) should be able to SHRED a Mississippi "D" that's ranked 104th in total defense & a no-show 108th versus the run. Spiller & the ground game are averaging 5.5 YPR over their last 4 SEC games. HC Jimbo Fisher's 7-2 SU Aggies have beaten Alabama & are still fresh off their bye just 2 weeks ago. They're 3-0 SU & ATS in this series but no game was played last year due to COVID-19. The Rebels (who have their Egg Bowl game with Mississippi State in 12 days) have had receiving corp injuries which has handicapped talented QB Matt Corral's numbers. They now get to face the #2 scoring defense in the country. The line of scrimmage war should be won by A&M. Let's jaunt to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford to play the TEXAS A&M AGGIES as my 8* CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Michigan vs. Penn State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -125 Michigan Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (WIN) The 8-1 SU Wolverines had their ship righted with a 29-7 win over Indiana last week. It's was a shame that Big Ten brass ADMITTED they made errors in Michigan's 37-33 loss to Michigan State 2 weeks ago. They gap that's hard to get by here is Michigan's 5th-ranked scoring defense goes up against a Nittany Lions' offense that 78th in scoring & 87th in yards per play. The numbers DON'T LIE as HC James Franklin (who could be headed to USC or LSU) is just 13-23 SU when up against opponents with a better winning percentage this time of the season. If that opponent's win percentage is .875 or higher (and it does here), Franklin's SU record dips to 5-11. My bottom line says the Maize & Blue played a very low-risk & conservative game last week like they were re-charging their battery versus the Hoosiers. Harbaugh's charges are the real deal this season. Yes, Penn State does have an excellent defense (ranks 10th & faces a 17th-ranked offense). However, this year's Michigan team will eventually wear you down. Let's go to Happy Valley's Beaver Stadium to play the MICHIGAN WOLVERNES as my 9* CFB Earlybird Dependable! Notre Dame vs. Virginia (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -240 Notre Dame Rating: 9* Mike's Chalk Talk Of The Walk Play (WIN) I'm just NOT BUYING the situational advantages that sit with the Virginia side. Yes, Sophomore QB Brennan Armstrong is a gunslinger for Bronco Mendenhall's Cavaliers. However, a rib injury versus BYU has altered his mechanics & I feel the Irish defense should be able to capitalize on inaccurate throws. It's tough to get the best of HC Brian Kelly this late in the season versus suspect material. If Armstrong was 100%, this one is very close. Look for ND to simmer than turn on the jets in a clump. Remember, the Wahoos (0-3 SU lifetime versus ND) have Pittsburgh & Virginia Tech looming on-deck. The Cavaliers' "D" have shown wear giving up 106 points their past 2 games. There's only 1 way to go here! We'll travel to the grass of Scott Stadium in Charlottesville to play the NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH as my 9* Chalk Talk Of The Walk Play! Arkansas vs. LSU (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -145 Arkansas Rating: 9* Mike's SEC Barnburner Survivor Play (WIN) There's NOT a lot to this pick! 4-5 SU LSU just played their SEC BOWL game last week when they fought tooth n' nail with Alabama (on the road) before losing a hard-fought 20-14 decision. There's history after this contest. The last 40 times (since 1985) the Tigers have played immediately after facing the Crimson Tide, they've come back to go a no-show 13-26-1 ATS. Arkansas has EXTRA motivation since they had a game-tying FG blocked by LSU last year in a 27-24 loss @ Razorback Stadium. HC Sam Pittman & his 6-3 SU Hogs' lead the SEC in rushing @ 244 YPG & should be able to wear down the Tigers in the end. My bottom line says QB K.J. Jefferson (with WR Treylon Burks) should be able to exploit a LSU pass defense ranking a dismal 97th in the country. Let's JET to the Bermuda grass @ Tiger Stadium to play the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS as my 9* SEC Barnburner Survivor Play! NOTES: Forthcoming Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 11 Record: 4-2 for 67% CFB Last 2 Weeks: 11-3 for 79% Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Overall Record: 35-28 for an uprising 56%
 

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