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Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 10 Analysis/Review/Notes

Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 10 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 7, 2022
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Thursday, November 03, 2022 Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +3/-110 Coastal Carolina Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Special Thursday Big Belter Play (WIN) We have HC Shawn Clark's (3rd season) perennial Sun Belt finalist in the Appalachian State Mountaineers (5-3 SU) invading HC Jamey Chadwell's (5th season) always-dangerous Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (7-1 SU). Even though App. State has had their number (7-1 SU versus Coastal of late), I believe this is the year where they turn the tables. That lone win in this series took place 2 seasons ago @ this venue by a convincing 34-23 count. I feel revenge is BIG here since the 30-27 win by the Mountaineers in Boone knocked Coastal Carolina out of a possible Sun Belt Championship appearance. I think the venue here is also BIG since App. St. enjoyed 6 of 8 home games this season including their 42-3 homecoming win over Robert Morris just 5 days ago. Digging a little deeper, the Mountaineers sit a perfect 0-3 versus the number when installed as a road chalk versus an opponent off a SU win. We can't refuse playing a Coastal Carolina squad that comes in with a 17-2 SU record the last 19 home dog situations. Tightening that further, they improve to a perfect 6-0 SU when an entertaining pup with revenge. CC is also a very-profitable 13-3-1 ATA their last 17 after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. This fits like a glove knowing the Mounts are a perfect 0-7 SU following a SU win & a ticket-ripping 2-7 spreadwise their last 9 travelers versus a team with a winning home record. My bottom line says HC Clark's prep when his team is on short rest has only produced a 1-3 ATS mark so we'll act accordingly. The key matchup I expect to be exploited is Coastal's QB Grayson McCall (who boasts a most-proficient 2,061 passing yards, 69% completions & a nifty 19/1 TD/INT ratio) up against Appalachian State's 119th-ranked pass defense. Here's exactly where to play it. We're storming into Brooks Stadium in Conway, SC to play the homestanding COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS (buying to + 4 1/2) with a generous amount of pasta on the ML as my 8 Star CFB Special Thursday Big Belter Play! Saturday, November 05, 2022 Michigan State vs. Illinois (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -16/-110 Illinois Rating: 8* Mike's Big Ten Rollback Game Of The Week (LOSS) I love what HC Bret Bielema & his DC Ryan Walters have done with their (7-1 SU, 4-1 Big Ten West) Fighting Illini 3-4 defensive scheme. I feel they have an advantage here with 3-5 SU Michigan State suspending 8 players after their post-game tunnel altercation versus Michigan. The Orange & Navy Blue still rank #1 in the country in points allowed (9 PPG) which is 2 PPG better than Georgia's! They're 1st in total defense (yielding 225 YPG), #2 versus the pass (giving up 149 YPG) & #2 versus the rush (relinquishing a stingy 76 YPG). They face a Michigan State running game (or lack there of) that's experiencing Kenneth Walker, III fallout as they've only rushed for 98 YPG ranking a near-the-bottom 118th in the land. The Illinois offense are no juggernauts either. But their 26 PPG is a cozy amount considering their defense has consistently held opponents to single-digit outcomes. Their "O" isn't flashy but a bruising ground game with an output of 198 YPG is getting it done & should be trusted here. My bottom line says QB Tommy DeVito (no, he's no Jack Trudeau of 80's fame) has enough experience to adapt when faced with looks of 7 or 8 men in the box. They can ill afford to look ahead to Purdue who sits just 1 full game behind them in their division. The winner should get the Michigan/Ohio State survivor unless Illinois can open a 2-game lead after this weekend. Here's where we're going. Let's make large tracks to Memorial Stadium in Urbana-Champaign to play the Fighting Illini (roll it back to -9 1/2) as my 8 Star Big Ten Rollback Game Of The Week! Clemson vs. Notre Dame (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -180 Clemson Rating: 9* Mike's Saturday Night Prime-Timer Play (LOSS) Don't think HC Dabo Swinney (in his 15th year with a 49-20 SU record on the road) & his 8-0 SU/ranking in the Top 4 Purple & Orange have forgotten about their last trip to South Bend during the 20' pandemic year when the now 5-3 SU Fighting Irish won a 2OT 47-40 thriller. The Tigers have a clear situational advantage of having 2 weeks to prepare for this game while the Irish beat an injury-riddled Syracuse squad 41-24 @ the JMA Wireless Dome off I-81. The Tigers return 9 offensive starters but no more important than QB DJ Uiagalelei & his 19th-ranked scoring offense. I don't think we'll see backup QB Cade Klubnik inserted as Uiagalelei is a dual-threat throwing for 1,803 yards with a 17/4 TD/INT ratio while rushing for 350 yards & 4 more TD's. Complementing him well is RB Wil Shipley whose rushed for 739 yards, 6.0 YPR & 10 TD's. They'll face a ND defense that ranks last (131st) in red zone "D". Clemson will be super-focused here knowing the Fighting Irish remain as the last threat to pull off an upset before the regular season ends & most-likely facing North Carolina in the ACC Championship. Since Notre Dame is facing the 7th-best rushing defense in the country, they'll be faced with many load-the-box looks throughout. My bottom line says Green N' Gold QB Drew Pyne will struggle through the air with multiple looks by DC Wes Goodwin & Mickey Conn. Pyne is a lacking 36-for-74 (49%) with a 4/2 TD/INT ratio his last 3 contests AND rank a very low 106th in passing yards. They'll be ready for ex-DC & now HC Marcus Freeman's Ground N' Ground approach which they ran the ball 56 times/246 yards versus the Orange last Saturday. With possible wet conditions, Clemson is better suited for smash-mouth football as they've held opponents to 3.1 YPR & rank 7th in rushing defense yielding just 89 YPG. Remember, Syracuse still put up 24 points with their Freshman backup QB Carlos Del-Rio Wilson in the game for quarters for the injured Garrett Shrader. The Golden Domers are 1-5 ATS @ home with SU losses to Marshall (26-21 as 20 1/2-point favorites) & to Stanford (16-14 as 16 1/2-point chalk) AND had a narrow escape versus Cal in a 24-17 final. South Carolina's Finest have gone a take-me-back-to-the-window 5-1 spreadwise on the road versus teams with a winning home record. This Swinney bunch has won 3 of 4 meeting SU versus the Fighting Irish. We're going to Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend to play the CLEMSON TIGERS as my 9 Star Saturday Night Prime-Timer Play! South Alabama vs. Georgia Southern (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: +4/-110 Georgia Southern Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Saturday Big Belter Play (WIN off the buy) HC Clay Helton (formerly of U.S.C. fame) & his charges have had this game CIRCLED after the 41-14 embarrassment South Alabama laid on them last season @ Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile. Some experts believed Helton would have trouble turning a usual option-dominated squad into one that could grasp the spread offense he wants to run. The Eagles seem to be taking root as they currently sit 5-3 SU & on the brink of bowl eligibility. This game pits strength versus strength as Helton's #10 in total offense team matches up against Kane Wommack's #10 in total defense club. I feel GSU's QB Kyle Vantrease (2,703 passing yards) can burn an over-zealous secondary (yields 211 YPG but keep in mind against a very soft schedule). DC Corey Batoon's 4-3 scheme is designed to stop the run which they rank 4th in the nation. Digging deeper into analytics & crunching the numbers reveal a 6-2 SU Jaguars' group being a no-show 1-9 ATS following a SU win over over 20 points. They've gone 0-1 versus the number in this Pick'em to - 6 1/2 price range & really falter after a SU win going a ticket-ripping 9-27 spreadwise. They also carry a perfect 0-4 ATS mark their last 4 @ this venue. On the flip side of the coin, Georgia Southern tends to like the real turf going 5-0 on grass & are 4-0 @ home - both ATS. Helton & Co. are also a rise-to-the-occasion 4-0 against the number when matched up versus teams with a winning record. They've beaten Big 12 entry Nebraska on the road 45-42 as 23 1/2-point dogs & have taken on the tougher schedule. Since GSU (3-2) still has an outside chance @ nipping Coastal Carolina (with 1 loss but has Southern Miss & James Madison yet to play) for the Sun Belt Conference Group A Division title, here's where we'll play it. We're stomping into Allen E. Paulson Stadium in Statesboro to play the GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES (buying to a key + 7 1/2) with a little sprinkled on the ML as my 9 Star CFB Saturday Big Belter Play! Tennessee vs. Georgia (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9/-110 Georgia Rating: 8* Mike's SEC Game of The Week Perfect Storm Play (WIN) We've been waiting for this one with a Top 3 battle of the unbeatens @ 8-0 SU between the upstart #1 Tennessee Volunteers & the defending National Champ & #3 Georgia Bulldogs. There's no doubt Vols' QB Hendon Hooker is getting the job done with 2,338 passing yards, a 71.2% completion rate along with a lights-out 21/1 TD/INT ratio. Kudos to Jeremy Pruitt's squad as they're riding serious momentum after upsetting Alabama 52-49 just 3 weeks ago in front of 102,000 plus @ Neyland Stadium. However, he enjoyed the advantages of a silent crowd then to audibilize @ the line of scrimmage throughout. He'll now face the 92,000 plus Junkyard Dawg fans which takes his many freedoms away. Yes, the Orange & White have defeated 2 undefeated teams this season (Pitt & Alabama). But later in the season when facing 7-0 or better SU opponents, they've dropped to a perfect 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS. These Volunteers thrive off the turnover & have benefitted from them posting a SEC-best +8 heading in. Numbers & defenses don't lie. Tennessee hasn't faced close to a caliber defense Georgia has that's #2 in the nation in Red Zone Efficiency, #3 in Pass Defense Efficiency (Vols rank 12th in defensive total yards yielded) & #4 in Total Defense (Tennessee ranks 82nd). Wait, a perfect storm is brewing! Not only is Kirby Smart's (7th season & 35-4 SU @ home) Dawgs 15-0 SU after their Florida Cocktail Party & 8-0 SU when favored by less than 20 after it, he is also a perfect 8-0 SU as a favorite of less than 20 versus undefeated competition. Going back a decade, defending CFB national champions are a steep-hill-to-climb 20-0 SU in a regular season game of teams undefeated. Solidifying this pick is realizing the Bulldogs' offense is better than the Vols' in most categories as they rank #3 in YPP (yards per point) margin, rank #1 in YPG (yards per game) margin & is #2 in PPG (points per game) margin. How long has it been since Tennessee beat the Bulldogs? Try 2016 with QB Joshua Dobbs' Hail Mary conversion for a 34-31 win @ Sanford Stadium. We're confidently going to Dooley Field in Athens to play the GEORGIA BULLDOGS (slashing it down to -2 1/2) as my SEC Game of The Week Perfect Storm Play! Alabama vs. LSU (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -13.5/-105 Alabama Rating: 9* Mike's 2-Play ML Good Payback Parlay Of The Week (LOSS) Since this pick is 2-fold as since Alabama is slightly over-priced ATS but good enough to throw in a 4-team parlay combo, you can't ignore the frame of mind the Crimson Tide is in after losing to the Volunteers just 3 weeks ago. What did they do following? They came back the next week & rolled a decent Mississippi State Bulldogs' squad 30-6. The BIG advantage here is giving HC Nick Saban 2 weeks to tweak a game plan that's geared toward regaining a berth in the CFB Playoff by the end of the regular season. It's tough to ignore the system that states: FADE any double-digit conference home underdog off of a SU conference win. Following this simple formula has gone a take-me-to-the-window 72-31 spreadwise & that's good for a dominating 70%. Knowing the road team is 6-0 ATS & the Crimson Tide being 4-0 versus the number @ the Tigers' venue says we have more than something brewing. Lay the lumber on Alabama ML for 9 Stars which is play Number Uno. The 2nd play is a ML/Spread Combo 4-Team Parlay in take-it-to-the window fashion: Play Clemson buy to + 4 1/2, take Illinois ML -1000, play Georgia ML -305 & Alabama ML -625 for an excellent + 124 payback. Play my ML Good Payback Parlay Of The Week with confidence for 9 Stars! Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 20-13 for a teetering profit 61%

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