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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 10 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 7, 2021
   
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Saturday, November 6, 2021 Tulsa vs. Cincinnati (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 22.5/-105 Tulsa Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception (WIN) There's no argument about Cincinnati being a legit 4-Team Playoff qualifier. I feel they're #$ right now! Remember, these SAME 8-0 SU Bearcats lost to current #1 Georgia by a slim margin of 24-21 in last year's Peach Bowl in Atlanta, GA. 5th-year HC Luke Fickell (39-6 SU his L45) & QB Desmond Ridder should be fuming after getting snubbed by the playoff committee who came out ranking them 6th. These 2 were supposed to meet last year on October 17th but had to cancel due to COVID-19. Do you I feel a blowout is definitely coming? The public thinks so. I do not. Why? Because this is the same Tulsa Golden Hurricane team that met Cincinnati in last year's AAC Title game where they lost 27-24 to an UNDEFEATED Bearcats' squad as + 14-point underdogs. By the way, HC Philip Montgomery returns 10 from that offense for this game. They've played here 2 years ago where Tulsa covered a generous 16 1/2-point spread in a 24-13 loss. The numbers DON'T LIE as the Golden Hurricane are a PERFECT 4-0 ATS against undefeated conference foes while also a PERFECT 7-0 versus the number when installed as 17 or more conference pup. Where do we play this? We'll gladly go into a so-called buzz saw with the revenge-minded TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE (buying to + 25 1/2) as my 8*CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Michigan State vs. Purdue (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-105 Purdue Rating: 8* Mike's Big 10 Attention Grabber (WIN) Beating Michigan in the matter HC Mel Tucker & Michigan State does take a tremendous toll out on your team. It will be very tough for his team to come back the same way (they're also 1-5 ATS after the facing the Wolves & scored 30+) & sustain it for 4 quarters. Forget the #3 ranking since right now, it doesn't mean a whole lot. It's where you're @ in the end. November is a very deceiving month in college football! These Boilermakers may have a 5-3 SU record, but they've out-gained both 6-2 Minnesota & 7-1 Notre Dame in losses. They have a HC in Jeff Brohm that's a dangerous conference dog going 14-5 versus the number. Here's the more-interesting number. When a Big Ten underdog AND has won less than two-thirds of his games, Brohm has gone a take-me-to-the-window 13-2 ATS! We'll go to the natural grass of Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette (with the biggest drum in college football) to play the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my Big 10 Attention Grabber! Wake Forest vs. North Carolina (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -125 North Carolina Rating: 8* Mike's ACC Game Of The Week (WIN) Even though some are spread-chasers & point out the host is 8-2 ATS their L10, let me say the home team is FLAWLESS in the L6 of the series going 6-0 SU (on the Moneyline). The 8-0 SU Demon Deacons (3-2 ATS in ACC games) of 8th-year HC Dave Clawson go on the road with that being undefeated pressure. It's a place where they've been out-stated by 23 YPG. Enter HC Mack Brown (3rd season-2nd stint, 13th overall in NC & 32nd season as a HC) whose 4-4 SU Tar Heels may not appear they can play the part. But under further examination, their strength of schedule is very high @ 34th which is much superior to Wake Forest's softer 89th of 130. NC comes into this game far from being slouches. Their 564 total yards versus ND where the most the Fighting Irish "D" yielded all season. Yes, WF has all 11 starters back. They ALSO have a vulnerable defense that's given up 56 points & 637 yards to Army 2 weeks ago. My bottom line says the Heels will be playing loose & the same way @ Pitt on Thursday. Let's go to Kenan Memorial Stadium to play the NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS as my 8* ACC Game Of The Week! Baylor vs. TCU (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-105 TCU Rating: 8* Mike's Emotional Rallying Play (WIN) I'm not sure how well its sitting with HC Gary Patterson (Yes, there's a statue of him in front of the stadium) saying a quick good bye after the administration told him his contract wasn't being renewed @ the conclusion of the season. Under normal circumstances, 7-1 SU Baylor wins this comfortably. However, the Bears just had a rough one coming from behind to beat Texas 31-24. The sandwich game is RIGHT HERE since on-deck awaits 9-0 SU Oklahoma for a meeting in Waco. T.C.U. has given Baylor more than problems in the past 6 seasons going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS. I'm not concerned with power rankings or the pollsters. We're going to Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth to play the T.C.U. HORNED FROGS (buying to + 10 1/2) as my Emotional Rallying Play! Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Kentucky (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -17.5/-110 Western Kentucky Rating: 9* Mike's LONE Wolf Play Of The Week (WIN) The lone wolf I speak of is called chalk. In 8 plays, this will be the only favorite. Both of these teams come in 4-4 SU. Two things are not so hot on the Middle Tennessee State side. HC Rick Stockstill's Blue Raiders have an injured QB in Chase Cunningham & have just beaten 2 teams @ home very low on the food-chain in Connecticut 44-13 & Southern Mississippi 35-10. Having said that, MTSU is STILL ranked 107th in offensive total yards. On the flip side of that, HC Tyson Helton's team are currently 3rd of 130 in that same category with 533.6 YPG & a scary 7.24 yards per play (also 3rd in the nation). The Hilltoppers will be focused since they sit in a current 3-1 SU tie with the Marshall Thundering Herd & Florida Atlantic Owls in the Conference USA-East Division. They'll conclude the season with Rice, FAU & Marshall to conclude the regular season. We're ready to hop all over the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS (buying back to - 13 1/2) as my Lone Wolf Play Of The Week! Oregon vs. Washington (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-105 Washington Rating: 8* Mike's Super-Slick Saturday Night CFB Play (WIN off the buy) Kudos for HC Mario Cristobal for grabbing that last of the 4 CFB playoff positions this week. However, the accolades end there. Why? Because they're over-rated & should be replaced by Cincinnati. I can see them as #5 but not #4. For those who remember, the last 2 time these 2 met was also close with the Huskies losing a 35-31 game (as 2 1/2-point dogs) just seasons ago @ this venue. This game will probably be in a cold rain or even nastier weather which is a ploy for the home team. These 2 have split the past 4 going 2-2 SU. With the Ducks recent woes & being over-rated by the oddsmakers (0-7 ATS as favorites of 2 or more), there's too much in our favorite. Since it looks like points will be a premium, we'll go to Huskies Stadium in Seattle to play the WASHINGTON HUSKIES (buying to a + 10 1/2) as my Super-Slick Saturday Night CFB Play! SMU vs. Memphis (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5/-110 Memphis Rating: 8* Mike's Earlybird Live Dogger (WIN) Here's the 3rd & last of the early games where I believe the home dog should get the cover & the "W". This is a classic "bubble burst" game where the Mustangs had their 7-0 undefeated season crushed last week when (after coming back to tie the game) a 100-yard kickoff return by the Houston Cougars' Marcus Jones led to a shocking 44-37 loss. There's also the distraction of S.M.U. HC Sonny Dykes who may be heading for a new HC'ing job @ either Texas Tech or T.C.U.. 4-4 SU Memphis under 2nd-year HC Ryan Silverfield is a live dog! If you can beat SEC Mississippi State 31-29 on this field, you can go down to the wire or win OUTRIGHT versus a Mustangs' team that has a defense ranked 87th in total yards. The Tigers are 18th in the nation in passing yards. My bottom line says there's a near-perfect system! It says to play AGAINST any 7-0 CFB favorite who just had their 1st loss (as a favorite & scored 28 or more) AND is playing a conference opponent. This fits S.M.U. like a glove! In this given situation, these 1st-time losers have come back in their next game to go just 1-10 ATS! Let's go to the artificial turf @ nostalgic Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium to play the MEMPHIS TIGERS (buying to + 8 1/2) as my Earlybird Live Dogger! Liberty vs. Mississippi (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 9.5/-120 Liberty Rating: 8* Mike's Earlybird Shocker Of The Week (LOSS) This Ole Miss team seems SPENT! After taking on Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee & LSU in succession, they have a BIG SEC home game on-deck with Texas A&M (who beat Alabama 41-38). This so-called sandwich game is the perfect scenario for Liberty with 3rd-year HC Hugh Freeze & his Heisman Trophy candidate, QB Malik Willis to shine their wares. Remember, Freeze (20 starters back-11-OFF, 9-DEF) left Ole Miss (not on good terms in 16') & won't hesitate to open up the playbook here with a bye week on-deck. This HC is excellent as a dog going 24-10 ATS which is PERFECT knowing Rebels' HC Lane Kiffin in non-conference home games is a no-show 2-8 versus the number. Let's go to the natural grass @ Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford to play the LIBERTY FLAMES (buying to + 11 1/2) as my 8* Earlybird Shocker Of The Week! NOTES: November is bringing out good things with patterns formed. Super-Saturday saw wins with NC over WF, Purdue over Mich. St. outright, TCU over Baylor outright (many people didn't know that the just-resigned Patterson still hung around to guide the coaching staff internally) & Tulsa + the points over Cincinnati who was never in doubt. The only loss of 8 plays was Liberty but by only 2 1/2. I say that because the Flames held a 39 1/2-20 1/2 time of possession advantage & was even in total yards. Despite big advantages there, Heisman hopeful Malik Willis (isn't one anymore) threw 3 damaging INT's killing drives that could have gave them an outright win AND an 8-0 week here. Let's built on it & move on to Sunday. Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 10 Record: 7-1 for 88% Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Overall Record: 31-26 for an up & coming 54%
 


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