Wednesday, December 19, 2018 Ohio vs. San Diego State (NCAAF) 8:00 PM EST San Diego State Premium Pick Pinnacle Play Title: Mike's Frisco Kid Live Baller Play (LOSS) Play Selected: Point Spread: 2.5/101 Rating: 8* Analysis: Am I speaking about HC Frank Solich (14th yr-longest tenured HC in MAC) & his Ohio U. Bobcats here? No, not this time. All the mushes who are on those Bobcats will be fast to point out how tough it is to stop their ground game that's averaging 261 yards per game. Besides going up against the #4 rushing defense in the land (95 RPG/2.7 YPR), history clearly shows Solich & Co. going 3-6 SU (2-5 SU all-time versus the Mountain West Conference) their past 9 bowl games. When you look @ his adversary in HC Rocky Long's San Diego State Aztecs, you'll find that they've played the Mid-American Conference 14 times overall. In those games, the Aztecs have gone a jalapeno-like 13-0- 1 SU! With both teams having very similar talent, let's crunch some added numbers. In the last 10 San Diego State games this season, the underdog has gone a perfect 10-0 ATS. My bottom line looks @ HC Rocky Long who has responded to the tune of 3-0 SU & ATS when rested & coming off a SU favorite loss. If you put all MAC teams under the microscope the last 5 seasons, you'll also find a putrid 10-31 SU record to date. The dagger for us has to be the Mountain West Conference surging against Mid-American bowl foes to the tune of 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS. Remember, since the Aztecs closed out 1-6 ATS, we'll be reaching for just a little extra for a line in our favor between 2 teams hard to separate. Let's get ready as we go to the incredibly small 20,000-seat soccer field @ the Toyota Stadium in Frisco, TX for the DXL Frisco Bowl to play the SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS (buying to a key + 4 1/2) as my 8* Frisco Kid Live Baller Play! Tuesday, December 18, 2018 Northern Illinois vs. UAB (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -125 UAB Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird Bowl Dependable (WIN) Both of these 2 teams are coming off surviving nailbiters in their conference championships. I believe that the UAB program is much more hungrier (searching for 1st bowl win ever-lost to Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl LY in 1st bowl appearance) since their football was shut down for the 2015 & 2016 seasons. Since the Blazers' program was brought back last season (went a combined 26-70 the previous 8 seasons), HC Bill Clark (who came over from his alma mater Jacksonville State which he led to a school record 11-4 back in 13') has done the improbable from scratch going a stellar 18-8 SU (15-7-1 ATS) including a Conference USA championship. What intrigues me about Clark is his intra-state recruiting skills. Knowing how the cream of the crop from Alabama is taken away by Lou Saban & his deep Crimson Tide, he made sure to grab the near misses. The X-Factor & prime example out of that group is sophomore RB Spencer Brown who just missed the Tide after a stellar career for HC Dustan Goode @ Class 5A Mortimer Jordan HS in Kimberly, AL. Brown has rushed for 1,149 yards (4.7 YPC) & a school-record 16 TD's this season including 156 (130 after contact-84%) versus Middle Tennessee State over 2 weeks ago. This game matches up 2 good defenses. Northern Illinois led the country in sacks (50) & is spear-headed by DE Sutton Smith (tied for most sacks with 15 & 24 1/2 TFL's). Since the Huskies are excellent against the run (yielding 2.7 YPC), I expect backup UAB QB Tyler Johnson III to see action (threw for 306 yards & 2 TD's versus Texas A&M earlier) if senior QB A.J. Erdely cannot move the football. The Blazers' "D" is no slouch either being 4th in sacks (43), 5th in TFL's (8.1) & holds opponents to 10th in points allowed (17.3). Their main cog are 6'8" senior DE Jamell Garcia-Williams who leads the team in sacks with 9 1/2 & NT Anthony Rush (1st team All-Conference) @ the core of DC David Reeves' 3-4 scheme. My bottom line points out that NIU HC Rod Carey (6th season) is no stranger to bowls as he's compiled an 0-5 SU & ATS record including a 52-23 loss to Marshall @ this venue 4 years ago. Crunching some serious numbers show MAC teams on a 1-10 SU bowl run including NIU being 2-9 SU in their last 11 bowls. In addition, MAC Bowl Underdogs are 7-40 SU as well as 2-15 SU when the posted total is 50 or less. The numbers with Conference USA teams have been quite the opposite. Favorites involving this conference in bowls stand 30-7 SU & if the CUSA team is the one favored, those teams have compiled a strong 15-3 SU record over the past 5 seasons. The dagger has to be when the CUSA & MAC buck heads. The favorite in the past 20 head-to-head bowl meetings have gone a take-it-back-to-the-window 17-3 ATS! Let's go to FAU Stadium for the Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl to play the UAB BLAZERS (going for a school-record 11th win) as my 8* CFB Earlybird Bowl Dependable! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Overall Record: 26-13 for 67% Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Bowl Record: 2-1 for 67%
 

Click here to view all of Mike Handzelek 's premium picks.