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Mike Handzelek's CFB End of Week 1 Analysis/Review

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 6, 2022
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North Carolina vs. Appalachian State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -130 Appalachian State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Saturday Multi-Hit Parlay (LOSS) The main thing that's alarming has to be a red flag raised toward North Carolina last week (56 1/2-point favorites). In the waning moments of the first half, they were up just 21-14. This is against a Florida A&M Rattlers' squad that had 26 players ruled ineligible before the game. While some Power 5 schools can reload @ the QB position, I feel UNC Redshirt Frosh Drake Maye (1st rookie-on-the-road game) is a big downgrade from last season when Sam Howell (5th round selection of NFL's Washington Commanders) was under center. Besides the rookie @ QB, the Tar Heels return just 5 on offense & take on an Appalachian State team that beat UNC @ Chapel Hill 34-31 in 2019 (Mack Brown's 1st season back since 97'). After a GUB (game under belt), the Heels show 4 injuries (App. St. none to report) with WR Antoine Green, WR Tylee Craft & DB Ja'Qurious Conley being out indefinitely & RB British Brooks being out for the season. On the flip side, 3rd-year HC Shawn Clark (20-7 SU but a near-perfect 11-1 SU @ home) returns 7 on the offensive side that includes senior QB Chase Brice who threw for 3,337 yards last season. Crunching the numbers reveal Appalachian being 32-3 SU @ Kidd Brewer since 16' & a jaw-dropping 23-1 SU in the regular season when winning the stats under HC Clark. In addition, 1st game squads taking a GUB team actually cover @ a 56% rate the past 15 seasons. The few weeks are always tough so we'll stick to a 7-team CFB parlay @ -103 odds: Maryland-ML, Michigan-ML, App. State + 7 1/2, Oklahoma-ML, Ohio State 1st Half-ML, Kentucky-ML & Washington-ML. Let's get bet #2 of the CFB season! It was an excellent way to start the season with West Virginia + 10 1/2 (see previous article). However, the 7-team parlay play for right around even money came up short (6 wins out of 7) when Ohio State's slow start (losing by 3 @ the half) did in the parlay. The Buckeyes ML wound up being the way to go as they won by 11. Mike Handzelek's 2022-23 CFB Overall Record: 1-1 for 50%

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