Saturday, January 02, 2021 Oregon vs. Iowa State (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -225 Iowa State Rating: 10* Mike's 10* Strongest Bowl Play Of The Day (WIN) At equal strength, there's not a whole lot separating these 2 besides some key intangibles. However, the core of the Oregon receiving corp has opted out for this game. Why is that so significant? Because the Ducks returned just 4 starters on offense entering the season. This puts a tremendous burden on Oregon's "O" whose far from being the formidable opponent of recent past. With the 4-2 SU Green & Gold @ close to full strength, they lost to rival Oregon State 41-38 & to California 21-17. On the flip side of the coin, HC Matt Campbell (whose 9-3 ATS off a conference SU & ATS loss) & his 8-3 SU Iowa State entry did beat Oklahoma 37-30 in their 1st meeting as well as beating the Longhorns on the road 23-20. Examining their schedule, ISU has clearly played the toughest slate of these Power 5 schools. This team is by far the most-experience as they're richly senior-laden with 60 players staying the course through this rough time. Two key playmakers giving us the edge are the Cyclones' QB Brock Purdy (2,594 passing yards & 18 TD's) and RB Breece Hall whose the nation's leading rusher with 1,436 rushing yards & 19 TD's). I also love the fact this game will be a homecoming for QB Purdy who played nearby @ Perry High in Gilbert, AZ. Ironically, Purdy beat current Oregon QB Tyler Shough (who QB'd Hamilton High in Chandler, AZ) twice in high school by 65-63 & 63-60 scores. My bottom line says Oregon will be hard-pressed to match the intensity they captured when defeating U.S.C. 31-24 (3 Trojans TO's-Oregon was out-gained by 123 yards) in the Pac-12 Championship. Remember, Oregon was only inserted in that game since the Washington Huskies couldn't pass COVID-19 protocol. The ISU defense will also be key as I believe DC Jon Heacock (was HC for 9 years @ Youngstown State) will successfully tweak his 3-3-5 base stack alignment to get ready for the Oregon running game. The analytics show when the PAC-12 plays a bowl game against a team with a winning record, they've gone a no-show 4-21 ATS! Digging in much deeper in the archives has revealed OU HC Mario Cristobal being 1-9 ATS & more importantly 0-10 SU when a dog AND facing a team off a SU & ATS loss. Let's go to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ for the Fiesta Bowl to play the IOWA STATE CYCLONES (a 10* single play) for the "W" as my Strongest Bowl Play Of The Day! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Bowl Overall Record: 7-3 70% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 32-28 54%
 

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