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Mike Handzelek's CBB Semi-Final & National Championship Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Apr 6, 2021
   
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Monday, April 05, 2021 Baylor vs. Gonzaga (NCAAB) - 9:20 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-105 Baylor Rating: 7* Mike's National Championship Spread-beater (WIN) In the semi-finals, it looked like U.C.L.A. opened up some serious blueprints for hanging with the Zags'. I feel Baylor HC Scott Drew will capitalize on it here. The Bulldogs have the best overall team on paper. However, I still think the scoring & perimeter accuracy from the 3-guard system of the Bears can withstand the patented Gonzaga runs that usually bury most squads. The last 4 times these teams have met have went the underdog way versus the spread. The analytics also point toward Baylor as they've went 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral court contests, 4-0 versus the number versus teams with a winning straight up record as well as 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when installed as underdogs. The KenPom rankings have HC Mark Few's club chiming in @ #1 while Baylor comes in a close 2nd. I think the Bears are more like 1A than a 2. I feel their 42.9% accuracy beyond the arc shouldn't be taken lightly. Defensively, they're ranked 3rd in the country in forcing turnovers (24.6% of the time). My bottom line says Baylor is the more excited team since this is their first Final Four in 71 years! It's hard to ignore the Zags' going just 2-5 ATS after scoring 90 points or more in their previous game. There's many historical-type trends that favor the Bulldogs, but I feel going OT with U.C.L.A. had to leave a lot on the table for that game. This especially is true if we force them to win by double-digits. That's exactly where we're going! Let's go to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to play the BAYLOR BEARS (buying to +9) as my National Championship Spread-beater! Saturday, April 03, 2021 Houston vs. Baylor (NCAAB) - 5:14 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -220 Baylor Rating: 8* Mike's Final Four Title Contender (WIN) HC Kelvin Sampson's Houston entry (28-3) faces HC Scott Drew & his Baylor squad (26-2) in the 1st tip off of the Final Four. These 2 teams had different paths in getting here with the Bears beating a #16, #9, #5 & #3 seed to get here. On the flip side of the coin, the Cougars (for the first time in the history of the tournament) beat 4 consecutive double-digit seeds by beating a #15, #10, #11 & #12 & cruised to the Final Four. As a result, their defensive numbers are tainted being #1 in points allowed per game @ 55.8. Will this continue? I don't don't think so. Has Houston played a team that can consistently shoot from the perimeter? Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse & Oregon State didn't fit the bill in that category. I feel that Baylor's 3-gaurd system can shoot over the Cougars' defense & go on a few runs that will prove detrimental & vault the Bears into the championship game. My bottom line points @ the analytics which read the Green & Gold hold a lights-out 18-1 SU record versus teams with a .750 winning percentage or better over the past 2 seasons. In addition, SU winners have a dominant 31-5-2 spread record spanning the past 20 seasons. When a #1 seed does NOT take on another #1 in the Final Four, they've gone a decent 14-5 SU the past 20 seasons (COVID-19-no games last season). I loved Baylor's discipline & focus against a fairly-tough schedule & their 4 starters back make this a solid seasoned-veteran squad. Let's go to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the BAYLOR BEARS on the ML as my Final Four Title Contender! NOTES: Check back this week! Mike Handzelek's 2021 CBB Overall Seasonal Record: 13-5 72% Finished #1 in CBB Winning Percentage
 


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