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Mike Handzelek's 2nd CFB Bowl


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Jan 2, 2022
   
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Saturday, January 01, 2022 Arkansas vs. Penn State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -145 Arkansas Rating: 9* Mike's New Year's Day Smart Play (WIN) It's been a very tough going this CFB bowl season going 2-7 coming in. However, a new year & a new streak applies as we roll into 2022. For this one (1st meeting between the schools), Arkansas leading receiver Treylon Burks (66 catches for 1,104 receiving yards & 11 receiving TD's along with 611 rushing yards & 5 more TD's) has opted out. But that is not the story. The REAL story is Penn State missing 3 defensive playmakers with LB Ellis Brooks, LB Brandon Smith & team captain & defensive MVP S Jaquan Brisker. On offense the Nittany Lions took another tough blow with leading WR Jahan Dotson (91 receptions for 1,182 receiving yards & 12 TD's) also opting out. I feel Hogs' QB K.J. Jefferson should have enough tools (14th rushing offense in the nation) to put up some points against a make-shift "D" that lost their DC Brent Pry who left to take the HC'ing job @ Virginia Tech. In addition, a BIG X-Factor for the Razorbacks has to be TE coach Dowell Loggains who spent last season on the Penn State sidelines as an analyst. He'll have the proper offensive blueprints to control the line of scrimmage. The Arkansas "D" should also have an advantage versus PSU's run game that finished a distant 118th out of 130. My bottom line says this a totally different Razorbacks' squadron with HC Sam Pittman really changing their culture around. Arkansas is definitely the more excited team while also taking on a tougher schedule. PSU's HC James Franklin makes his 7th bowl appearance & bring in a 3-3 SU record). The tide changes today as we hop to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa for the Outback Bowl to play the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS for the "W" as my 9* New Year's Day Smart Play! Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame (NCAAF) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 0/-115 Oklahoma State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Power Play (WIN) Nothing against new Fighting Irish HC Marcus Freeman (was DC), but it's going to a tough one filling the shoes of departed to L.S.U. HC Brian Kelly. Notre Dame will be missing 2 key cogs on both sides of the ball with RB Kyren Williams & FS Kyle Hamilton opting out. The truer story is on the Oklahoma State defensive side of the ball where DC Jim Knowles (leaving to become DC @ Ohio State after the game) should get an "A" game from a defense that comes in ranked 3rd in total defense (trails Georgia & Wisconsin). Both of these teams come in deflated after going 11-1 SU. They had bowl playoff aspiration but had to settle for finishing 5th & 6th to qualify for a New Year's Day bowl. Even though Notre Dame QB Jack Coan has the better numbers, the Fighting Irish did face an easier schedule than OSU. My bottom line says we cannot afford to ignore ND going a ticket-ripping 0-7 SU & ATS on New Year's Day spanning the past 21 years. Let's go to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ for the Fiesta Bowl to play the OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 8* CFB Power Play! Utah vs. Ohio State (NCAAF) - 5:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4/-105 Utah Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Barking Out Loud Dogger (WIN) Hey, what's Ohio State's frame of mind after their disappointing loss to Michigan? Utah is ranked in the top 20 in scoring offense & scoring defense. They are from the PAC-12 but they're super-excited to be in the Rose Bowl for the 1st time. We'll ride that momentum as we go to Pasadena, CA & grab the UTAH UTES (buying to +7 1/2 & sprinkle some pasta on the ML) as my 8* CFB Barking Out Loud Dogger! Friday, December 31, 2021 Georgia vs. Michigan (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-110 Michigan Rating: 9* Mike's National Semi-Final ATS Survivor (LOSS) The last these 2 met # 10 Georgia came to Ann Arbor & shocked the HC Bump Elliott's # 7 Wolverines 15-7. This year's game should be a dandy as Alabama laid some pretty meaningful blueprints for Michigan in the SEC championship. It was a game where the Bulldogs' highly touted defense got stung for 41 points & 421 passing yards. The Wolverines proved they can win the line of scrimmage versus a physical Buckeyes' squadron & now has had several weeks to scheme against the Junkyard Dogs. This has been a very rough season to predict outcomes in college football. I hope COVID-19 protocols & other opt-outs weren't that prevalent but such is not the case. Let's continue to march on as we go to the Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens to play the MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (buying to + 10 1/2) as my 9* National Semi-Final ATS Survivor! Central Michigan vs. Washington State (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -270 Washington State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Cut & Paste Bowl Winner (LOSS) Yes, this should have been called the Cut & Paste Bowl instead of the Sun Bowl since it's borrowing Central Michigan from the cancelled Arizona Bowl due to Miami, Fla. being hit with multiple-player protocols. So the Chippewas travelled 4 hours from Tuscon to El Paso & here they are! On the Washington State side, new HC Jake Dickert has fit in nicely after the Nick Rolovich fallout as the Cougs are a 1/2-point away from going 9-0 ATS their last 9. Even though RB Max Borghi has opted out, I feel the Cougars' passing game should flourish against a Central Michigan pass defense ranked 109th. Let's go to El Paso, TX for the Sun Bowl to play the WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS as my 8* Cut & Paste Bowl Winner! Thursday, December 30, 2021 Purdue vs. Tennessee (NCAAF) - 3:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -220 Tennessee Rating: 8* Mike's Bowl Earlybird (LOSS) There's not much to say here besides Purdue's 2 best playmakers on both sides of the ball (WR David Bell & DE George Karlaftis) opted out for this game. Yes, HC Jeff Brohm will rally his troops. However, to reach their usual "Spoiler makers" status will be a herculean task! The excited team for me is the Orange & White with QB Hendon Hooke (2,567 passing yards with a 26/3 TD/INT ratio). This will seem like a home game for this SEC entry. Let's go to Nissan Stadium for the Music City Bowl to play the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for the "W" as my 8* Bowl Earlybird! Wednesday, December 29, 2021 Iowa State vs. Clemson (NCAAF) - 5:45 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-105 Iowa State Rating: 8* Mike's College Bowl Earlybird (LOSS) Well, Chip Kelly saved the whooping he would have took since U.C.L.A. didn't past protocols. It hurt since we would have had a 10 Star winner. But we'll move on to this one where I feel Clemson freshman RB Will Shipley will be severely challenged with facing an Iowa State defense that's ranked 10th in the nation. DC Jon Heacock runs a 3-4 scheme that's only yielded 10 rushing TD's in 12 games this season. On the flip side of the ball, I'm looking for ISU QB Brock Purdy (73% completion rate) to perform to expectations (despite RB Breece Hall opting out for the NFL draft). My bottom line says this game is a bowl let-down for Clemson (good luck Dabo Swinney getting your players up for this) since they're used to going to the CFB Playoff or a New Year's Day bowl game. The motivation & interest are all on the side of the Cyclones & HC Matt Campbell who has all of his offensive starters back (minus Hall). In total offense, we have Clemson chiming in @ a distant 95th compared to ISU @ 34th. Remember, ISU beat Oregon 31-17 in the Fiesta Bowl last season. Ditto here! The Tigers haven't been a good bowl favorite going just 4-11 ATS in the role the past 28 years. Clemson remains the public side as well as the trendy one. This line has been adjusted accordingly. We're ready to play this a strategic number! Let's go to Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando to play the IOWA STATE CYCLONES (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 8* College Bowl Earlybird! Tuesday, December 28, 2021 NC State vs. UCLA (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -130 NC State Rating: 10* Mike's 1st 10 Star Bowl Game Of The Season (GAME CANCELLED) Wow! The last time these 2 met was @ the L.A. Coliseum in 1960 with the Uclans coming out on top 7-0. Let's talk ACC QB's. Even though he didn't receive the accolades or positive press attention like ACC QB's Kenny Pickett (Pitt), Sam Howell (NC) & Sam Hartman (WF), North Carolina State's signal-caller Devin Leary has produced very similar numbers. He's completed 65.7% of his passes, thrown for 3,433 yards & has a not-too-shabby 35/5 TD/INT ratio coming in. The 9-3 SU Wolfpack have some excellent credentials beating Clemson in OT 27-21, lost a barn-burner to Wake Forest 45-42 & beat intra-state rival North Carolina 34-30 in the regular season finale. They now take on a Chip Kelly-coached U.C.L.A. Bruins squad that hasn't won a bowl game since 2014. The odds-makers have continually slighted the Wolfpack in recent years in the bowls as witnessed by a very solid 10-3 bowl ATS record their last 13. Analytics also show that the favorite in those 13 have gone a take-me-to-the-window 11-2 SU. On the flip side, the Bruins come in 8-4 SU but I feel that was against a weaker schedule than N.C. State has faced in the ACC. In fact, coming into this bowl season numbers show that PAC-12 teams have put out a horrible 11-20 SU & an even worse 7-24 mark ATS. If we crunch the numbers versus PAC-12 bowl underdogs the last 16 games, it doesn't show their teams come in with excitement going a no-show 2-14 SU & 4-12 ATS. When we look @ PAC-12 teams versus ALL power 5 conferences in bowls, it shows they've gone a ticket-ripping 17-24 SU & just 12-29 versus the number. My bottom line says this game should be won in the trenches. I give the n, 3:30 PMod to the Wolfpack (22nd in the nation against the run) allowing just 9 rushing TD's all season. In contrast, the Bruins' "D" have yielded 24 rushing TD's against a more inferior schedule. While they show better total yards numbers, I feel the U.C.L.A. "O" with QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (2,409 passing yards & a 21/6 TD/INT ratio with RB Zach Charbonnet (1,169 yards rushing & 13 TD's) have majorly compiled their numbers versus the bottom tier of the PAC-12. Numbers clearly show the Wolfpack' "D" is for real holding foes to 70 yards UNDER their season average. N.C. State is also motivated to get to a rare plateau by becoming the 2nd team in school history to achieve a 10-win season (2002 team with QB Philip Rivers was the 1st). We're ready to jet to the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl @ Petco Park (home of the Padres) to play the NORTH CAROLINA STATE WOLFPACK as my 1st 10 Star Bowl Game Of The Season! NCAAF: Miami Ohio vs. North Texas - Thursday, December 23, 2021, 3:30 PM ET Premium Pick: MIAMI (OHIO) ML -140 (WIN) Mike's CFB Bowl Record: 5-7 for an absurd 42% Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Overall Record: 49-42 for a sub-standard 54%
 

  Mike Handzelek
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