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Mike Handzelek's 1st CFB Bowl Installments Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 20, 2021
   
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Saturday, December 18, 2021 Oregon State vs. Utah State (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -280 Oregon State Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Kudos to HC Blake Anderson & the 10-3 SU Aggies of Utah State for a lopsided 46-13 Mountain West Conference Championship win over San Diego State (who are a 1-dimensional run-heavy team). However, that win was tainted since there were numerous Aztec players out due to COVID-19 protocols. As a result, the public has fallen in love with the dog coming off their dominating conference championship win. Even though the Beavers sport a weaker 7-5 SU record, HC Jonathan Smith's crew played the much tougher slate. This season was highlighted by a convincing 45-27 win @ U.S.C.. OSU is clearly the more excited team since this represents their 1st bowl game since 2013! That season they defeated ANOTHER Mountain West squad (38-23 over Boise State) in the Hawaii Bowl. History shows the Black N' Orange have been very successful versus the Mountain West covering their last 6 of 7 meetings. My bottom line says you have to give stronger consideration to the more-balanced team. OSU knows how to control the clock (217.2 YPG rushing) & (200 YPG passing). They hold a decisive 5.2 to 3.7 edge in YPR (yards per rush). Oregon State QB Chance Nolan (his "O" produces 6.5 YPP-yards per play) has the tools to control tempo, sustain drives & keep QB Luke Bonner & the Aggies off the field. Because of the fact there's a chance for the backdoor cover in the end, let's roll to the site of the Super Bowl -- So-Fi Stadium in Inglewood, CA for the Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl to play the OREGON STATE BEAVERS for the SU "W" as my 9* CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Marshall vs. UL Lafayette (NCAAF) - 9:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4/-110 Marshall Rating: 8* Mike's Saturday Night Bailout Play (LOSS) Let's not overlook 12-1 SU UL-Lafayette's majorly emotional 24-16 Sun Belt Conference Championship win over Appalachian State for their departing for the SEC HC Billy Napier (went 40-13 @ ULL but has now left to coach the Florida Gators). I highly question if the Ragin' Cajuns can generate that same fire (for their promoted TE Coach/Co-DC & former ULL QB Michael Desormeaux) they'll need to romp over Conference USA entry Marshall (7-5 SU) here. I'm leaning with QB Grant Wells (3,436 passing yards & a 16/10 TD/INT ratio) who should be good to go after being injured in the regular season finale (a 27-25 nail-biting loss to UAB) & RB Rasheen Ali (1,241 rushing yards & 20 TD's rushing) to take this game to the wire. My bottom line looks @ the numbers that are bulking on our side as UL-Lafayette has gone 0-4 ATS their last 4 bowl games while going a weak 2-6 versus the number off of rest. The "Boys From Huntington" carry a super-solid 12-3 SU & ATS in bowl games the last 21 years. We'll gladly go to Caesars Superdome for the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl to play the MARSHALL THUNDERING HERD (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my 8* Saturday Night Bailout Play! UAB vs. BYU (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-105 UAB Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird (WIN) I feel UAB should be the more-interested team entering in. They won their last visit to Louisiana with a 28-21 win over Tulane in Game 4 of the season. The flip side acknowledges BYU skipper Kalani Satake is in fat & happy mode after he was given a contract extension through 2027. The Cougars' "D" gives up 27 PPG. Why is that significant? Because when B.Y.U. gives up over 21 PPG, HC Sitake's team sits a ticket-ripping 6-17 versus the number as a favorite. This fits nicely when looking @ UAB HC Bill Clark. When Clark's squad faces opponents with an .800 or better winning percentage, they are a very profitable 7-2 ATS including a near-perfect 5-1 versus the number as a dog in that scenario. Even though the Cougars (who are disappointed they didn't make a New Year's Day 6 bowl) went 10-2 SU & beat 4 PAC 12 teams & 1 ACC, I question their motivation after the layoff. The majority of their wins came by single digits which tells us where to play the Blazers as a live dog. My bottom line says UAB has a solid run defense that's only yielded 3.0 YPC this season. In fact, the 23 PPG the Blazers' defense gives up is ALSO significant. The analytics show when BYU faces a team that gives up under 24.5 PPG, they've turned in a sad 9-16-1 spread mark. Last year's Cougs' rendition scored 120 points more after 12 games than this year's team. Sealing the deal for us is the Cougars weak 1-7 ATS mark Let's go to Independence Stadium in Shreveport, LA for the Independence Bowl to play the UAB BLAZERS (buying to + 10 1/2) as my 8* CFB Earlybird! NOTES: Not an ideal start to the bowls but it's a long 4 weeks til' the championship game. Nevertheless, let's methodically march up the ladder to profit with a strong nucleus of teams coming up in the next few weeks. Stay tuned! My 1st Bowl Game Selection was a heart-breaker on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ - 6 1/2 which lost by a 1/2-point since they won 47-41. Mike Handzelek's 2021-22 CFB Bowl Record: 1-3 for a dismal 25% Overall CFB Record: 45-38 for a ho-hum 54%
 


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