1*LA Rams -4 & 1*Under 48.5 points
The Rams played the much tougher schedule (No. 2 vs. No. 25) and they get to play at home. This line suggests the Rams are 2.5 points better than the Bengals on a neutral field. The Rams lost the Super Bowl in 2019 (New England) and bring in a lot of experience . This line should really be closer to 5 or 5.5 points. Both teams are ranked in the top third in pressure rate and QB sacks. The LA Rams defensive front is going to cause major headaches for this Bengals' offensive line. Take the Rams and the Under!
Jeff's Super Bowl 56 Prop Plays
1) Total Penalties Under 10.5 (+105)
Both teams are very disciplined and average 8.9 penalties per game combined. The actual line should be 9.5 penalties. Go Under 10.5!
2) Will there be a score in the first 6 minutes? No (-115)
The first quarter is notoriously the lowest scoring quarter in the Super Bowl. I like the under for the game so this prop makes a lot of sense.
3) Joe Mixon Over 16.5 carries (-115)
The game plan for the Bengals is to run Joe Mixon early and often. They need to limit the Rams' possessions and running Mixon should help. The Bengals' backups are used very little. Expect high usage for Mixon. There is no game next week. I project 18+ carries so go Over 16.5!
4) The first play of the game will be a PASS (+115)
Both coaches have passed over 60% on the first play this season. Great value!
5) Will there be at least one 2-point conversion attempt? YES (+140)
Last year, there was none. I think this a great value play. We only need one attempt, not a successful try.
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