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Home / Articles / Jeff's NHL Eastern Conference Finals Betting Preview

Jeff's NHL Eastern Conference Finals Betting Preview


By: Jeff Hochman
Date: May 16, 2023
   
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The NHL Eastern Conference Finals are set to be a thrilling matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers. Both teams have been playing at a high level this postseason, with the Hurricanes coming off another dominant regular season performance, and the Panthers making a late-season push to clinch the final wild card playoff spot. It's hard to ignore Florida eliminating the record-setting Boston Bruins in the first round. I do see some warning signs for the Panthers against the Hurricanes in this matchup, no pun intended.


Both teams boast deep rosters, featuring some of the best players in the league, including Sebastian Aho and Martin Necas for Carolina. Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov are a strong 1-2 punch for Florida. Both teams have a strong defensive core, with Carolina led by Brent Burns and Jaccob Slavin and Florida led by Aaron Ekblad and Brandon Montour. Florida made a bunch of roster moves at the end of last season. It took some time for their new pieces to build chemistry.


Carolina is currently -135 for Game 1, with a series price of -140. While the Panthers have been on a hot streak lately, they will be playing its toughest defensive opponent in these playoffs. As we gear up for the ultimate showdown between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Florida Panthers, it's time to break down the stats and dish out some cold, hard facts.


The Hurricanes core roster has been playing together for years, and their chemistry is off the charts. They've got a stellar shot differential of +60 in the postseason, while the Panthers are lagging behind at -43. That's a 103-shot swing, folks. If you're looking to ride the wave of success, it might be time to jump on the Canes' bandwagon. I was wrong picking against Carolina in the last round as the Devils were clearly exhausted after that 7-game series against the physical New York Rangers.


When it comes to goal differential, Carolina is also leaving Florida in the dust. The Hurricanes have an impressive +12 goal differential in the playoffs, compared to Florida's +3. That's a nine-goal advantage for the boys in red and white. It's clear the Canes know how to light the lamp, and they're not slowing down anytime soon even without wingers Teuvo Teravainen and Andrei Svechnikov.


The face-off battle is another key factor in this series. Carolina holds the edge with a better face-off win percentage, giving them more opportunities to control the game and shut down the Panthers' offense. Face-offs are crucial in tight games, and the Canes' prowess in the circle will definitely come in clutch. Carolina was ranked No. 5 in Face-off win percentage, while Florida was ranked No. 21 in the regular season. It's been more of the same in the playoffs. Carolina is winning just under 47%, while the Panthers are winning only 43.5%, which ranks second last of all the Semi-Final playoff teams. Only the Seattle Kraken are ranked lower (43.0%).


But let's not forget about defense. The Hurricanes have been an absolute brick wall in their own end, consistently shutting down their opponents and limiting their chances. Their defensive play has been nothing short of stellar, and they're not afraid to lay out the body to make the big plays when it counts. The Hurricanes have allowed 306 shots-on-goal in 11 Postseason games, while Florida has allowed 423 shots-on-goal in 12 games. Carolina was ranked No. 1 in shots against, while the Panthers were ranked No. 22 in shots against during the regular season. Speaking of the regular season, Carolina went 2-1 vs. Florida, out-shooting the Panthers in all three meetings, 110-80.


On the flip side, the Panthers have been riding a wave of success, but their luck is about to run out. Sure, they've pulled off some major upsets to get to the Eastern Conference Final, but their new roster simply doesn't have the experience or cohesion that the Canes boast. The Panthers may have the momentum, but the Canes have skillful-players, the motivation, and the stats to back it up.


While the Panthers have turned heads with their Cinderella run, the Carolina Hurricanes are the real deal, and they're not about to let a fairy tale get in the way of their championship dreams. They have been down this road before and know what it takes to win the Eastern Conference Title. With their superior shot and goal differentials, face-off prowess, and rock-solid defense, the Carolina Hurricanes are my pick to move on to the Stanley Cup Final.


Selection: Carolina Hurricanes (-140) to win the series!
 


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