Saratoga | Race 10 | Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes | 5:43 PM ET | July 27th
#1 Sierra Leone (1/1), trained by Chad Brown & ridden by Flavien Prat
This impressive 3-year-old horse, sired by Gun Runner, has a career record of 6 starts, 3 first-place finishes, 2 second-place finishes, and one third-place finish, with total earnings of $2,118,000 for its ownership group. In the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby two races ago, Sierra Leone finished in second place, losing by a nose to Mystik Dan. In its most recent race, the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes, Sierra Leone stumbled badly at the start but made a solid recovery to finish third, just 1 ½ lengths behind the winner, Dornoch. Sierra Leone tends to perform best in the later stages of a race but tends to drift in or out, which has impacted its final position in races. Notably, Sierra Leone possesses the fastest middle pace (101.7) and fastest late pace (110) speed figures in this field. Jockey Flavien Prat will be riding this horse for the second consecutive time. With such a strong performance history, Sierra Leone is a strong contender and a deserving favorite according to the morning line odds. The One to Beat!
#2 Seize the Grey (6/1), trained by D. Wayne Lucas & ridden by Jaime Torres
He is a 3-year-old son by Arrogate who recently finished seventh in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes. However, prior to that, he won the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile and the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes on a muddy track. He performs best at around one mile. With a career record of 11-4-0-3, he has earned $1,839,940. Notably, he has won two races on off-tracks where he was able to lead from the start. Although Seize the Grey has never run poorly in two consecutive races, I question his chances of winning this time. Use Underneath!
#3 Batten Down (5/1), trained by Bill Mott & ridden by Junior Alvarado
He broke his maiden two starts back, winning by 8 ¾ lengths on April 30 at Churchill Downs. Batten Down won the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, beating Gould's Gold by 1 ¾ lengths at Thistledown on June 22. This 3-year-old Tapit progeny has two wins, one place, and one show finish in five career starts, earning $394,850. He will be making his sixth start of the 2024 campaign and has never run at Saratoga. A drop (bounce) in performance from his career-best 95 Equibase speed figure seems likely. Use Underneath!
#4 Pony Express (20/1), trained by John Sadler & ridden by Joel Rosario
Pony Express will be shipped in from California with a lifetime record of 3-1-0-0, earning $36,140. This 3-year-old by Gun Runner is coming off an impressive 9-length victory in an MSW event at Santa Anita on June 15th at nearly 9/1 odds. It's a tough spot to make career start number four with little foundation under his belt to win a graded stakes race. He will be racing without Lasix for the first time. It's horse racing, and anything can happen, but I would be stunned if this horse wins. Toss!
#5 Gould’s Gold (15/1), trained by Kenny McPeek & ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr.
Gould's Gold is a 3-year-old horse sired by Goldencents. He has a lifetime record of 6 starts, 1 win, two second-place finishes, and 1 third-place finish, earning a total of $218,250. He recently achieved back-to-back second-place finishes in the Sir Barton S (listed), narrowly losing by a nose, and in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, where he finished 1 ¾ lengths behind Batten Down. Even though he has been training consistently at Saratoga, it's worth noting that this will be his first time racing in New York. The competition in this field appears challenging for Gould's Gold. Use Underneath!
#6 Fierceness (9/5), trained by Todd Pletcher & ridden by John Velazquez
I love this horse. He is sired by City of Light and has a lifetime record of 6 starts, 3 wins, 0 second-place finishes, and one third-place finish, earning $1,703,850. Fierceness hasn't raced since finishing 15th after hopping at the start in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. He has two Grade 1 victories, the Florida Derby and the Breeders Cup Juvenile as a two-year-old. He is 1-for-1 at Saratoga, breaking his maiden by 11 1/4 lengths on a muddy track at first asking on August 25th, 2023. Fierceness has never run two bad races in a row, and he's sitting on a big performance. I love his seven consecutive works over the Saratoga race track. Win Contender!
Jeff’s Selection: #6 Fierceness (9/5) to Win & Place
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