Grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes | Saratoga | Race 10 | July 26
1. Baeza (3-1) Jockey: Hector Berrios | Trainer: John Shirreffs
Baeza's best performance was a strong second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, finishing ¾ of a length behind Journalism. The $1.2 million yearling has shown consistent late-running ability but is still searching for his first graded stakes win and second career victory after two second and third-place finishes. The cutback to 1 1/8 miles may be advantageous, as Baeza's ability at classic distances, like those of his champion half-brothers, is in question. Hector Berrios replaces Flavien Prat, who chose to ride Nysos at Del Mar. Berrios previously rode Baeza during his maiden win and for two second-place finishes. The clocker reports are very positive, with indications that Baeza looks "different" in a good way. Surprisingly, this will mark the first time Baeza starts from a post position lower than 5. Expect Baeza to be closer to the pace in this small field, which should help him engage when they turn for home. Top Choice.
2. Sandman (6-1) Jockey: Jose Ortiz | Trainer: Mark Casse
Sandman returns to the track where he broke his maiden in August 2024. The Tapit gray brings Grade 1-winning credentials from his Arkansas Derby victory in March, where he overcame a challenging pace scenario to score by 2 ½ lengths. His subsequent Triple Crown campaign included a seventh-place finish in the (G1) Kentucky Derby and a more encouraging third in the (G1) Preakness Stakes behind Journalism and Gosger. Trainer Mark Casse believes the Derby setback was mainly due to the kickback from the 19-horse field rather than any fundamental issue with the horse's ability. Sandman enters the Jim Dandy equipped with blinkers for the first time, producing a 14% win rate for the Casse Stable. Win Contender.
3. Mo Plex (10-1) Jockey: Manny Franco | Trainer: Jeremiah Englehart
Mo Plex represents the local angle as a New York-bred with strong Saratoga connections, having won both the Grade 3 Sanford and Funny Cide Stakes at the Spa as a juvenile. He has never lost at Saratoga and will be on the lead with a clean break. Mo Plex has never been off the board in eight career starts, recording an 8-5-1-2 record with $745,000 in earnings. While he faces a significant class test against Triple Crown participants, his steady progression and affinity for Saratoga make him a dangerous wildcard, especially if he can control the pace. Live Longshot.
4. Hill Road (12-1) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. | Trainer: Chad Brown
His surprising victory in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes at Aqueduct came after rallying from eighth place, defeating McAfee and Captain Cook. That performance earned him a spot in the (G1) Belmont Stakes, where he finished fifth but showed the kind of late kick that could prove dangerous in a smaller field. Hill Road's career path includes a remarkable third-place finish in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar at odds of 61-1. This 3-year-old son by Quality Road has excelled on a fast track but has struggled on dirt categorized as "good," despite the small sample size. Monitor the track conditions and the tote board for clues. Live Longshot.
5. Sovereignty (2-5) Jockey: Junior Alvarado | Trainer: Bill Mott
Sovereignty enters as the clear favorite, coming off dominant wins in the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes. The Into Mischief colt has established himself as a force in the 3-year-old division with a 7-4-2-0 record and over $4.8 million in earnings. The only time he did not finish in the money was his first career start, where he finished 4th going six furlongs at Saratoga. Sovereignty's improving speed figures over his last three races suggest he's not done winning races. While the cutback from 1 ¼ miles to 1 1/8 miles might raise minor questions given his runner-up finish in the (G1) Florida Derby at this distance, his superior recent form and tactical speed make him the horse to beat. Additionally, this acts as a preparatory race for the Travers, and Sovereignty may not be entirely “cranked up,” so I will try to beat him with Baeza.
Selection
Baeza (3-1) Win-Place
Sovereignty is way the horse to beat. Baeza is worth a light play. In multi-race wagers, I would hit the all button.
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