I understand the risks of exceeding a double-digit win total. Look at Josh Allen and the Bills since his second year; he's a cheat code. They went 10-6 in 2019, 13-3 in 2020, 11-6 in 2021, 13-3 in 2021, 11-6 in 2023, and 13-3 last season. This is the most stacked roster in the league, with depth at several key positions except for QB. The foundation of Buffalo's success rests firmly on Josh Allen's continued excellence. Coming off his first NFL MVP award, Allen showcased impressive efficiency and leadership with 41 total touchdowns (28 passing, 12 rushing, one receiving) and only six interceptions. Under pressure, he recorded an 85.3 QBR and 6.5 yards per dropback, ranking among the best in the league.
Buffalo benefits from one of the most advantageous schedules in the NFL for 2025. The Bills face the 23rd strongest schedule. Of the six games against 2024 playoff teams, four will be played at home in Buffalo - against Baltimore, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia. The Bills' home-field advantage remains among the NFL's best, with Allen posting a remarkable 42-21 record at home compared to 34-22 on the road. Their dominance at Orchard Park has been even more pronounced recently, going 21-2 at home over the last three seasons. The schedule also features minimal travel stress. Buffalo only crosses one time zone all season - for a Thursday night game at Houston in Week 12.
While questions persist about Buffalo's receiver depth, the addition of Josh Palmer and Elijah Moore provides veteran stability. Palmer led the league in separation metrics in 2024 and should thrive with elite quarterback play. Curtis Samuel's return and Keon Coleman's development solidify the position group. James Cook emerged as a top running back last season, increasing his touchdowns from 4 to 16 in his third year. Allen's scrambling ability for yardage is also a key asset.
The Bills made some serious moves to improve their defense in the offseason. They picked up key players Joey Bosa, Larry Ogunjobi, and Michael Hoecht. Buffalo focused on solidifying that defensive line in the draft by selecting T.J. Sanders in the second round, Landon Jackson in the third round, and Deone Walker in the fourth round. The organization focused on enhancing defensive pressure this year and succeeded. Key additions are expected to improve depth, particularly first-round cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who adds elite speed and physicality to the secondary. These reinforcements should improve a defense ranked 12th in points allowed (21.6) but 25th in opponent yards per play (5.6). The offense will be dynamic again, and the defense should crack the top 10.
The Dolphins and Jets are both in a rebuilding phase right now. Miami's offense can be predictable, depending on timing and rhythm. While the Patriots are expected to show some improvement, they're still likely to struggle against the top-tier teams.
Jeff’s Best Bet: Buffalo Bills OVER 11.5 wins (-155)
Jeff’s Best Bet: Buffalo Bills Super Bowl Champs (+600)
Jeff has an NFL record of 162 wins, 110 losses, and nine ties from his last 281 selections, achieving a win rate of 60% for +$19068. This record is fully documented at The Sports Monitor of OK. Early bird packages are now on sale.
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