I'm a big fan of using trends when I handicap NBA games. While team-for-team breakdowns are more exact, let's break down the season so far month by month to see if we can spot any trends and/or if the bookmakers have adjusted throughout the season. October A small sample, but a clear advantage for the road team to cover the spread. November Another month favoring the road team, and only backing the under would have made you a fortune. December As close to a perfect month for the oddsmakers as you can get. Perhaps they've adjusted correctly? January No, looks like the oddsmakers actually over-adjusted for both ATS and totals so backing the home team ATS and the over were the moneymakers in January. February (up until Feb. 22) The oddsmakers seem to have got the spreads correct so far but are still setting the lines for the totals too low. Conclusion: Don't be surprised to see higher totals in the upcoming month, and once again I think the oddsmakers will over-adjust. We should also take into account that games are likely to get more and more competitive as the playoffs approaches, so I definitely expect to get a lot of opportunities to bet the under until the end of the regular season. For home/away teams we might start to see value on the road team ATS, but I'm not quite as confident regarding that.
Home Team 15-23 ATS
Over 19-17-2
Home Team 102-115-6 ATS
Over 90-128-5
Home Team 113-112-3 ATS
Over 111-111-6
Home Team 127-98-5
Over 121-103-6
Home Team 59-58-3
Over 68-48-4
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