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Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat Betting Preview

America's Bookie

AmericasBookie Sportsbook/Casino and Horses.

By: America's Bookie
Date: Apr 1, 2021
   
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The Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat square off on NBA Saturday, with tip-off set for 8 pm ET. The 17-30 Cavaliers will look to stay competitive with the 23-24 Miami Heat, who are in the playoff hunt in the Eastern Conference.

This is one of my favorite games of the night to bet on, with multiple picks, including unders and a spread.

RECENT NBA BETTING TRENDS

Cleveland

When studying offensive and defensive trends, there frankly isn't much to like about Cleveland. Powered by young guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, the Cavs' calling card is scoring points in the paint and stealing the basketball.

At fourth in the NBA in points in the paint and fifth in steals with 8.3 per game, it's a rare top metric for a desolate Cleveland. Key metrics such as points per game, effective field goal percentage and efficiency show a 30th-ranked Cleveland offense.

Points are even less likely for this team when studying pace. Cleveland comes in as one of the slowest teams in the league at 23rd overall.

To put a bow on this disappointing season, the Cavaliers' defense is a bottom 10 unit.

Miami

Speaking of pace, only the Knicks play at a slower speed than Miami. We'll get to why that matters for this game in a moment.

Miami, led by All-Stars Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, has had an up-and-down season. The Heat currently find themselves in the "down" part, going 4-6 in their last 10 games heading into a March 31 game at Indiana.

Top online sportsbooks know the offense ranks in the bottom 10 of the league, but it's their defense that makes the Heat an appealing choice in this game. Miami's defense is close to a top-five unit in the league. Across the many defensive metrics available to bettors, the Heat are top 10 in almost every single one.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, its one offensive advantage, points in the paint, is eliminated by the Heat's top-ranked interior defense.

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Favorite Bets

The Heat match up extremely well with Cleveland. When looking for games to bet on, the foundational step is to study how the offenses and defenses match up.

The Cavaliers' worst-ranked offense is going to have a difficult time scoring points against the Heat. Just earlier this week, Cleveland faced off against a similarly strong defense in Utah, mustering only 75 points.

Perhaps a more troubling and accurate sign of the Cavs' offensive woes was the 98 points they scored against Sacramento. The Kings are the worst defense in the entire NBA, by a sizable margin, and Cleveland couldn't even crack 100.

Game pick: Cleveland Team Total Under

The Heat defense should be able to handle Cleveland with ease, and the slow pace of play should hold the Cavs under 100 yet again. Speaking of pace, remember how Miami is ranked 29th in the category?

Game pick: Cleveland-Miami Under

This is an ideal game to target an under. These are two poor offenses who play slow, with one strong defense dictating the game flow. This should be a win for Miami and a low-scoring affair.

All indications suggest an easy win for Miami. Neither team has performed well against the spread this year, but someone has to cover.

On the year, the Heat are 19-27-1 ATS. Cleveland is 19-28 ATS.

Our last pick was a Pacers at Suns free pick, go take a look.


 

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