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PREVIOUS FIVE DAYS' PICKS
Sunday, December 09, 2018
Oregon State vs. Saint Louis (NCAAB) - 3:30 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Total: 134.0/-110 Under Rating: 5* 5*
Win
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OREG ST has scored 80 points in 3 of 4 games but it came against a #344, #299 and #167 defense that has a tempo rank of #88. The Beavers now face a STL D that is #22 that also plays to a #33 tempo. Both offenses are pretty poor and I look for a lower scoring game here on Sunday afternoon.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-114 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 10* 10* NFL Game of the Week
Loss
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The first-place Cowboys have won four straight games and it all started with a 27-20 win at Philly five weeks ago. They are off a big upset of the Saints last night. Dak holds the ball too long and keeps getting sacked. He also leads the league in fumbles. THis is huge divisional game and I expect it to be close.
The Eagles just got their groove going and have won back-to-back games for the first time this season. They finally look somewhat like the team from late last season. Carson Wentz finally looks comfortable in the offense. I'll take the points with the Eagles as our 10* NFL Game of the Week.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 4.0/-108 Indianapolis Colts Rating: 5* 5*
Win
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The Colts were on a roll heading into Week 13, with five straight wins and eight straight games with three-plus passing TDs for Andrew Luck. Then they got shut out by the Jaguars in Jacksonville.
This is going to be a great AFC South game that will be decided by less than a field goal.
Take the points as I like Indy as long as they don't turn the ball over and give the Texans easy opportunities. Here's where Luck and the Colts get their revenge and end the Texans winnings streak. Play the COLTS.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -15.0/-107 Los Angeles Chargers Rating: 4* 4*
Loss
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I don't like laying big numbers, but it's hard to see how the Bengals score many points in this matchup with Jeff Driskel and without A.J. Green on the road against a top-tier defense. The Chargers have won four times by at least 14 points, showing they can blow out bad teams. The Chargers' pass offense is second in DVOA while the Bengals pass defense is 27th, and there's a similar split running the ball as well. Rivers should have a huge night passing as he has thrown 2 or more TD's in every game this season and the Bengals defense is very bad.
Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights (NHL) - 9:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -146 Vegas Golden Knights Rating: 4* 4* Iceman Power Play
Win
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Vegas tossed in a real clunker yesterday losing 5-1 to the lowly LA Kings.
Its was one of their worst efforts of the season for the Golden Knights. The Knights were lethargic throughout. I think what you got was a team that has been red hot and completely overlooked a weak opponent,
Dallas is on a 4-0 run but it's not like they've dominated those opponents and they're still a lousy road team. I'm pulling the trigger on the Knights to win this one at home on Sunday night.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST
Free Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-110 Kansas City Chiefs Rating: 1* FREE PLAY
Loss
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Kansas City fans will be in for a treat watching Patrick Mahomes continue developing as a great QB in this league.
Mahomes is a top player in the NFL - and is going to be a great QB for the future, in my opinion. With 9 games of 3+ TD passes in a game and only 1 game having thrown for less than 250YDs in the air over the season - he is a game changer. He will be the reason for Kansas City taking care of Baltimore in this game.
Baltimore struggle with the intangibles of passing the ball. And their QB situation does not make their WRs any more productive on the field, with their debacle between Flacco and Jackson. Baltimore may be looking to make a coaching change, or an OC change at least, because their current scheme just isn't working. It is all but over for Baltimore.
Kansas City is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home and should take care of business vs the Ravens here on Sunday afternoon. Lay the -6.5
Saturday, December 08, 2018
UNLV vs. Illinois (NCAAB) - 2:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-110 Illinois Rating: 3* FREE BURIAL
Loss
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Yes, we are backing a 2-7 team that is favored here by 6.5 pts.
The Fighting Illini have played the #5 schedule and while they have 7 losses ALL SEVEN were team ranked in the top 100 with 6 losses to teams that are #55 or better. Illinois has faced the 5th best slate of offense and 15th best slate of defenses. UNLV is 4-3 but that came against the #323 schedule and ALL SEVEN games were at home! They make their first trip to face a hungry, desperate team that has the #57 offense (118 was prev best the Rebels played). Illinois is coming off a loss vs Ohio St and after despite the continued losses, Underwood isn’t done believing in his squad. “I feel great about this team,” Underwood said. “These guys have all bought in.” Look for a big win here for ILLINOIS on Saturday afternoon.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) - 7:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -158 Tampa Bay Lightning Rating: 4* 4*
Win
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Good sized number to be spotting against Colorado, but I still have the required value here based on my Lightning being a bigger favorite. Domingue is no sure thing in goal, but he's been sharp of late for Tampa with back to back really good outings, and Domingue is 6-1 at home this season. Perhaps a little added motivation here as the Lightning were blanked 1-0 at Colorado earlier this season. The Avalanche are on the last leg of their road trip, so we cold catch them a little weary here. In any event, the Lightning fit as the play here and I'll go ahead and lay the juice.
Buffalo vs. St Bonaventure (NCAAB) - 4:00 PM EST
Free Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -7.0/-110 Buffalo Rating: 3* FREE PLAY
Win
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St Bonny has beaten Buffalo 4 straight times but I like this Buffalo team a lot here.
The Bonnies (4-5) also are coming off a big win, an 82-40 decision over Siena for their third straight win. Look for a major letdown after a 42 pt win.
Buffalo, which is ranked the AP Top 25 for the first time in school history this year, beat Arizona as a No. 13 seed in the NCAA tournament last year.
Bulls guard and leading scorer TJ Massinburg had the second triple-double in school history with 13 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists against Le Moyne, although the Bulls lead by only two early in the second half before going on a 23-0 run while holding Le Moyne without a field goal for almost 12 minutes. Shannon Evans II has the school's first triple-double, in 2014.
"Our guards did a good job of rebounding, and one thing coach always says is if a guard gets the rebound, he can automatically push the break and that goes into how we play, with a lot of fast breaks," Massinburg told the Buffalo News.
Look for Buffalo to get a double digit win here on Saturday afternoon.
Navy vs. Army (NCAAF) - 3:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-115 Army Rating: 5* 5*
Win
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I rarely put out picks this early but I think this line will go up soon. I would play this as soon as you can. I can't see how this line doesn't go up. I realize its a big game for these 2 teams but ARMY is much better on both sides of the ball this year. Army doesn't make mistakes and should move the ball with ease. I like ARMY by 14 or more.
Nevada vs. Arizona State (NCAAB) - 12:00 AM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-110 Arizona State Rating: 5* 5*
Win
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Nevada has opened the year 8-0, but the Wolf Pack have yet to tally a top 25 win. Nevada has grabbed nice wins against teams like BYU, Loyola Chicago, and USC, but this will be a step up in competition for the Wolf Pack. This will also be the toughest matchup on the early season for Arizona State, but the Sun Devils have been proving themselves with wins against teams like Mississippi State and Utah State. Numbers wise, Arizona State is nearly right in line with Nevada and that’s with going against perhaps a slightly tougher schedule and well coached with Bobby Hurley there. We think this could be a competitive result on the neutral site and we'll take the points with ARZ STATE.
Montana vs. Cal Irvine (NCAAB) - 10:00 PM EST
Free Pick
Pick: Total: 139.0/-110 Under Rating: 3* 3*
Win
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May seem strange to go under this number when Montana has scored 72 or more points in each game but that’s why we have value.
I expect a defensive battle and this total to stay LOW,
The Grizzlies certainly do not push the pace as they are #253 in tempo but they have faced the #269 set of defenses with the best two #88 and #135, Cal Irvine is #61.
Now look at the temp of the two best D;s that Montana has faced and they are #86 and #177, Irvine is #307. Play the UNDER as your Saturday night college hoops play.
St Josephs vs. Villanova (NCAAB) - 2:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 11.5/-110 St Josephs Rating: 5* 5*
Loss
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St Joe’s heads into this rivalry game feeling a bit better about themselves coming off a solid 10 point win on the road against Princeton in their last outing. The Hawks are looking to be an upper tier team in the A-10 this season. The Hawks have faced a tough schedule and have picked up some nice wins against teams like Old Dominion, Wake Forest, and Illinois Chicago. Villanova looks like they’re going to take a further step back this season than most were anticipating, but this group has been showing some positive progress over the past couple weeks.
Anything can happen in rivalry games and given how up and down these two teams have been this result could go a number of ways. We feel Saint Joe’s has the talent to hang around with Villanova in this city rival game.
Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks (NBA) - 7:30 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-105 Denver Nuggets Rating: 5* 5*
Loss
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Denver doesn't need to completely rely on defense as they have done in the past. Nikola Jokic needs to just run the offense, play defense, and dominate as he can. Denver will move down the court with their offense - and their super skilled bigman will excel vs Atlanta.
Putting their individual stats aside, Atlanta goes through some real scoring droughts that has led to a lot of their bad losses. None of the young players in Atlanta are in the ballpark of the Nuggets class but it's not as easy as what it appears. Trae Young has put up 16/game but is shooting just 38% and he doesn't have a lot of help. I look and expect the
Denver Nuggets to win by 12 or more here on Saturday night.
Friday, December 07, 2018
Sacramento Kings vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (NBA) - 7:30 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -2.5/-113 Sacramento Kings Rating: 5* 5*
Win
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I'm loving the backcourt matchups for the Kings, here. De'Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield should have big nights for Sacramento, especially in the second half and down the stretch. Cleveland's defense has not held up through four quarters very often, and Sacramento has covered in 12 of 17 games with a day off for rest. Jump on the Kings before the line rises any further.
Thursday, December 06, 2018
Washington Capitals vs. Arizona Coyotes (NHL) - 9:00 PM EST
The Arizona Coyotes were coming off lopsided home-ice losses to Calgary (6-1) and Colorado (5-1) when general manager John Chayka, unable to wait any longer for more offense, went out and traded for forward Nick Schmaltz.
One game later, with the Coyotes down 3-1 to the Minnesota Wild going into the third period on the road, goaltender Antti Raanta left with a lower-body injury. With backup Darcy Kuemper already injured, coach Rick Tocchet was forced to insert the team's AHL goalie, Adin Hill.
Remarkably, the Coyotes -- on the verge of playing themselves out of contention only 10 days ago -- haven't lost since.
Arizona will take a four-game winning streak, some momentum and some growing confidence into its Thursday night game against the Stanley Cup champion Washington Capitals, who are coming off a game in Vegas. I like the home dog Coyotes here on Thursday who are playing with momentum and confidence.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 5.5/-109 Jacksonville Jaguars Rating: 5* 5*
Loss
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Tennessee has an okay record but they're not a good football team. They're now 0-3 ATS when favored this season and the one SU win in those three was the last minute one against the Jets. The Jaguars have no chance at the playoffs but got a good win last Sunday against a divisional opponent and I'm sure they'd like another one here on primetime TV.
Jax RB Fournette is back from his one-game suspension and he could have a good night with some fresh legs. The Jaguars rally behind their new QB and get a win on Thursday night or at least he ATS Cover for us.
Wednesday, December 05, 2018
NC Wilmington vs. North Carolina (NCAAB) - 9:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -26.0/-110 North Carolina Rating: 10* 10* Blowout
Win
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NC has been off a week since getting their ass kicked by Michigan. They will come out strong tonight and looking to take NC Wilm to the woodshed here.
The Tar Heels (6-2) should be in good shape in that junior point guard Seventh Woods got off to a strong start to the season. He led the team in assists through five games before sitting out two games with a concussion, but he has since returned to action.
North Carolina should come out strong and never look back tonight.
NC Wilm likes to push the tempo and doesn't play much defense so its the total opposite for NC from playing Michigan who is excellent defensively and slows the pace.
I expect a 96-63 type of final score here Wednesday night on ESPN2.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers (NBA) - 10:30 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -8.5/-104 Los Angeles Lakers Rating: 4* 4*
Loss
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This is a double revenge game for the Lakers and the Spurs stumble into this contest having lost three of their last four games, with all of the defeats coming by more than 30 points, including Tuesday's 139-105 setback at Utah. Meanwhile, the Lakers have won their last three contests by an average of 14.3 PPG, with Monday's 120-96 rout of Phoenix marking the team's largest margin of victory this season.
The Spurs have given up an average of 127.3 PPG over their last six contests and the effort versus Utah marked the third time they have allowed 135 or more during the stretch.
LA has won five of its last six home games, covering all 5 of the wins. The Spurs have beaten them twice already this season and I look for the LA LAKERS to come out strong at home here tonight!
St Josephs vs. Princeton (NCAAB) - 7:00 PM EST
Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: -3.0/-109 St Josephs Rating: 5* 5*
Win
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The better team is off a brutal non-conf stretch taking a step down in class while the opposition is playing their toughest foe season-to-date. St Joe’s has already faced 4 teams in the top 95 while Princeton has played one opponent with a 140 rank (Lehigh) and the remaining 4 games are teams in the bottom 50! The Princeton Tigers played some weak offensive teams and I look for ST JOES to roll tonight!
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Unlike last year's top-heavy race, the 143rd Kentucky Derby is wide open. Classic Empire, Always Dreaming, McCraken, Irish War Cry, Gunnevera, Irap and Thunder Snow are just some of the horses mentioned as potential winners. Before you wager, you'll want to know who Tony Karpinski likes as a Sports & Horses Expert and who pegged the WINNER in 6 of the last 8 races.
With his knowledge and contacts ... read more
Fantasy Football is crawling into your veins again - with expectations of raising the digital championship title above your head, in your living room. In a league where the QB is the reigning champion - things are a bit different in the world of fantasy football. WRs seem to be the top cheese that every drafter wants to go in the direction of.
The draft strategies we hear about, the zero ... read more
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(TonyK) 3G-Sports Rating System
TonyK rates his picks 4* 5*, and TOP RATED 10*'s selections in all the major sports. The Original Iceman Hockey is rated as a 3,4, and 5*'s. For example if $1000 is your top play you put that on my 10*'s, $500 on my 5*'s and $400 on my 4*'s.
(TonyK) 3G-Sports Money Management
Only 2 to 3% of the people who wager on sports are actual long term winners. For the most part it's not because the losers are bad handicappers, or using poor handicapping sources. It's because they have no concept of what a bankroll is, any respect for it, or how to use it.
There are 3 components to successful sports investing:
(1) Handicapping the games proficiently using historically proven methods.
(2) "Shopping for Lines" to get the best value(Extremely Important).
(3) Employing a disciplined money management system and NOT risking your entire bankroll on a game or in a week.
*** One of the toughest things to do in life is to follow instructions. Everyone looks for a shortcut. But if you are able to achieve the patience and discipline to follow these rules you will be more financially successful than you ever imagined.
# 1 - Define your bankroll. This is a sum which, if you were to lose the entire amount, would not alter your current chosen lifestyle. Use a separate bankroll for each sport (for example, College & NBA Basketball use separate bankrolls.) Don't be embarrassed if this amount is small. with discipline it will grow large!
# 2 - Wager a constant predetermined percentage of your bankroll on each game in the handicapping period. For example, I have regular picks for 1 unit and TOP picks for 2 units.
#3 - Never wager more than 10 games in a day or at a given time. I usually have 2 reports on weekends during the football season and some weekends in college basketball and actually break it down and look at it as 2 days.
These are basic guidelines.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There you have it.
By having the discipline to follow these directions you'll find yourself multiplying your wealth in winning seasons and saving losses in tough times. My only advice is to shop for the best numbers. What you save is what you earn. As always Good Luck and BE A WINNER!
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