We head west for our College Basketball Top Play of the Day for Thursday. We look to Big West Conference action as the Cal State Fullerton Titans visit the UC-Davis Aggies. The Titans come into this game averaging 86.7 points per game on the season. As you can see by their average, they have done a nice job on the offensive end of the floor, but it is on the other end where we find their Achillies Heel. On defense the Titans are allowing an average of 85.6 points per game this season. That will be a significant problem for them tonight as they face an Aggies team that is very balanced on the offensive end of the floor and they are averaging 81 points per game. With their defense only allowing an average of 76.4 points per game they have done a really good job of controlling the pace of the game. That should be the case tonight as they force their will upon on suspect Titans’ defense while utilizing their scoring ability both from two-and three-point range. Our power numbers project a SU and ATS victory for the Aggies on their home floor tonight. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.36 points. The MM projects a point differential of +5.29 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.12 with a transitional average of 43.1 and a projected conversion rate range advantage of 5.2 percent in favor of the Aggies. The SIM Matrix has the UC-Davis Aggies with a 73.99 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. Play ON CBB teams when the opponent had a total of more than 168.5 in their last game and when the opponent had fewer than forty-one rebounds in their last game, 66-38 ATS (64%)(+$2,420). We will lay the short price as the Aggies roll to a Big West Conference victory on Thursday night. PREDICTION: 8* UC-DAVIS AGGIES 86 CS-FULLERTON TITANS 78

The Boston Celtics are in South Beach on Thursday where they will take on the hometown Miami Heat. The Celtics have controlled this series of late winning straight up and against the spread in four of the last five meetings. They met back in late December in Boston with the Celtics winning 129 to 116. Boston has really struggled recently posting a record of 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the number. Some good news for the Celtics was they did get an extra day of rest after their most recent loss to the Pacers. Play ON NBA road favorites coming off back-to-back straight up and against the spread losses, 406-287 ATS (59%)(+$9,030). The Heat were riding a losing streak of their own before defeating the Suns on Tuesday in Miami winning 127 to 121 to halt their three-game losing skid. Boston has done a really good job against teams that like to use a fast pace on offense, and this situation should play right into their hands tonight. Overall, the Celtics have won seven of the last eight meetings anywhere both straight up and against the number. Boston has also won eight straight at the Kaseya Center. Our power numbers project a Boston win and cover in South Beach tonight. Our TPR Index projects a point advantage of 7.42 points. The MM projects a point differential of +5.11 against the current line range. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive defensive differential of 4.86 with a transitional average of 43.2 and a projected conversion rate range advantage of 4.4 percent in favor of the Celtics. The SIM Matrix has the Boston Celtics with a 73.98 percent advantage against the spread in this contest. Play ON NBA road favorites, excluding sub .320 and plus .780 team record extremes after a game where they failed to cover the spread, now against a team that covered the spread in their last game, 1172-954 ATS (55%)(+$12,260). Play AGAINST any NBA team in their current game when their next game is against a team they lost to by more than ten points earlier in the season, 838-542 ATS (61%)(+$24,180). We are going to lay the short price with the Celtics as they get back in the win column with a big win in South Beach on Thursday night. PREDICTION: 8* BOSTON CELTICS 118 MIAMI HEAT 111