An unexpected ride will continue for one of these teams when the Ravens play the Dolphins in an AFC WildCard matchup.
Nobody had either Miami or Baltimore in their projected playoff fields prior to the season, yet here they are.
Miami's turnaround this season is perhaps the most impressive in NFL history, as the Dolphins were a pathetic 1-15 a year ago. Ironically, their 1 victory was over the Ravens, which was probably the final nail in former coach Brian Billick’s coffin.
Both teams were overhauled in the off-season. Bill Parcells was hired to be Miami’s Executive Vice-President for Football Operations, who brought in a new brain trust of general manager Jeff Ireland and head coach Tony Sparano.
Last week's 24-17 win at the Jets moved Miami to 11-5, giving the team its first division title since 2000 and its first postseason berth since 2001. The Dolphins are 9-1 since starting the year at 2-4, including a 5-0 road record during that span.
The Ravens' 2008 about-face is almost as impressive, although they are two years removed from a 13-3 playoff season, and they retain a sizeable portion of its top personnel from that era.
The Ravens were just 5-11 last year, finishing in last place in the AFC North and going 1-9 in their final 10 contests. Baltimore tabbed Eagles assistant John Harbaugh as his next head man, who then had to scramble for a quarterback. Steve McNair opted to retire, while Kyle Boller and Troy Smith were both sidelined during training camp. The only QB left standing in August was raw rookie third-stringer Joe Flacco, who was roughly eight months after he had been quarterbacking the University of Delaware.
Flacco has shown gradual improvement each week and helped the Ravens navigate a murderous schedule in the process. Baltimore went 9-2 over their final 11 games to secure the AFC's final WildCard entry, with their only losses over that span coming against the NFC’s #1 seed New York Giants and AFC’s #2 seed Pittsburgh Steelers.
Now, Baltimore will be attempting to win its first postseason game since 2001, when it made a previous trip to Miami and easily defeated the Dolphins in a Wild Card matchup. The Dolphins were also a 27-13 home loser when the clubs met back in Week 7 of this year for the most recent regular season meeting.
QB Flacco finished the campaign with solid numbers in both passer rating and completion percentage, a testament to his efficiency and maturity. Rather than hit a “rookie wall” down the stretch like Atlanta’s rookie QB, Matt Ryan did, Flacco continued to get better, including throwing for a career-high 297 yards in last week's win over the Jaguars. Back in the Week 7 meeting with the Dolphins, Flacco was a solid 17-of-23 for 232 yards with a touchdown and no turnovers.
Still, the Ravens' offensive strength lies with a rushing offense that ranks fourth in the NFL and features the three-headed monster of Pro Bowler Le'Ron McClain, veteran Willis McGahee, and rookie Ray Rice.
The Dolphins defensive group ranks 10th in NFL rushing defense, eighth in sacks, and has kept the team afloat for much of the season. The work of the pass rush has helped to cover up some of the weaknesses of a secondary that ranks just 25th in the NFL against the pass.
A major component in the Dolphins' turn-around season was the way QB Chad Pennington and the Miami offense protected the football. The Dolphins turned the ball over an NFL-low-tying 13 times during the regular campaign, leading the NFL in turnover margin in the process. Pennington posted an outstanding 97.4 passer rating during the regular season despite a lack of big-name receivers on the club.
Miami also has a three-pronged rushing attack with Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, and Patrick Cobbs, making the Fins 11th in NFL rushing offense during the regular season.
Pennington and company will have a tall order on Sunday, as they try to gain some traction against a Ravens defense that is #3 against the run and #2 against the pass. Baltimore also leads the NFL in interceptions and takeaways.
Since Baltimore went to Miami and earned a fairly easy 27-13 victory in Week 7 the Dolphins have improved, but so have the Ravens, who are moving the ball offensively and also making their usual big plays on defense. A major reason for Miami's resurgence has been their affinity for avoiding turnovers, but Pennington is going to have a difficult time avoiding miscues against a Baltimore team that leads the league in picks. In addition, Pennington won't get quite enough help from the running game against a Ravens front seven that doesn't give up much ground.
On the other side of the ball, Flacco has stood up to nearly every challenge he's faced this year, has been getting better in recent weeks, and has played his best football on the road, so he is not fazed by opposing fans. Unfortunately for Miami, they also have played their best ball on the road.
While Baltimore has many players with playoff and even Super Bowl winning experience, the Dolphins have just 18 players with any playoff experience. We expect that to be the difference early and late in this game, as an early mistake by Miami should help get the Ravens in front, and a late mistake should seal their fate.
We have numerous NFL Playoff POWER SYSTEMS in agreement:
After covering the spread as a double-digit favorite to end the season as the Ravens did, teams have entered the playoffs in strong fashion, as revealed by a small-sample POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play ON a team (not an underdog of more than 8 points) in its First Playoff Game off a regular season non-shutout SU & ATS win as a favorite of 10+ points in its last game.
Since 1994, these teams are 7-0 SU (+16.9 ppg) & 6-0-1 ATS (+12.8 ppg).
Meanwhile:
Play AGAINST a team (not a favorite of more than 8 points) in its First Playoff Game off regular season road SU wins in its last 2 games.
These road-weary teams have gone 0-5 ATS since 1994, failing to cover the spread by more than 13 ppg on average. The Dolphins likely left their best effort on the field with their upset win over the Jets at New York last week.
Home teams starting the playoffs against an opponent with the same record in the regular season have had a very hard time, which is the case here. This POWER SYSTEM reads:
Play AGAINST a home team in its First Playoff Game vs. an opponent with the same regular season record.
Since 2002, these teams are 0-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by nearly 8 ppg on average, including the Bengals home underdog SU & ATS loss to Pittsburgh in 2005.
Miami has not enjoyed an easy win the past few weeks, and without a recent double-digit win, teams have struggled in the playoffs. This is confirmed by our database research which resulted in an NFL POWER SYSTEM that states:
Play AGAINST a WildCard team (not a division underdog) off 3 games without a SU win of 10+ points (road team if rematch of last game) vs. an opponent not off 3 games without a SU win of 10+ points AND fewer points scored in its highest scoring contest of the 3 games.
Since 1998, these teams are 0-11-1 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 9 ppg on average.
Finally, after playing a division foe as a clear underdog, teams have really struggled in the playoff WildCard and Semi-Final rounds. The Dolphins are active for this POWER SYSTEM as well, which states:
Play AGAINST a WildCard/Semi-Final team off a game as a division underdog of 2+ points (underdog if opponent also off a WildCard/Semi-Final team off a game as a division underdog of 2+ points) vs. a non-2-time-defending Super Bowl Champion opponent not played in its last game.
Since 1994, these teams are a horrible 0-24 ATS, failing to cover the spread by more than 10 ppg on average. This system was 4-0 ATS, and is already 1-0 this season with the Colts SU & ATS loss at San Diego on Saturday.
Under most circumstances, we would fade a rookie QB and rookie head coach on the NFL Playoff road, as we did on Saturday with Atlanta; however, the Ravens rookie is playing as well as Miami’s Pennington right now, and the Dolphins have a new staff themselves. Baltimore still has many veterans from previous playoff runs, especially on a defense that should set the tone early this game. Another big edge enjoyed by the Ravens here is having Cam Cameron as their offensive coordinator. He was the Dolphins head coach last season, so he knows their personnel very well, and was certainly a factor in their win at Miami earlier this season. Also as noted, both of these teams played better on the road, which is reflected by our Power Ratings which show a fairly comfortable SU & ATS win for the visitors.
,b>PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) BALTIMORE 24 MIAMI 14