I'm playing on Boise State and Virginia Tech to finish UNDER the total. I successfully played on the Broncos to finish 'under' the total in their opening game last season. Facing a powerful Oregon team, Boise allowed a mere eight points. The following week, they allowed 0. This year's team returns 10 defensive starters and figures to be very tough on that side of the ball. Note that getting off to a strong defensive start is nothing new for this team. Including last year's 19-8 win over the Ducks, Boise has allowed a mere 22 combined points in its last four season openers. Including last year's win over the Ducks, the Broncos have seen the UNDER go 13-7 their last 20 September games, which had a total. They allowed 17 points per game, last year. In addition to having a powerful defense, the Broncos will also have a potent offense. They return 10 starters, including star QB Kellen Moore, from a unit which averaged 42.2 points last year. That said, in "big games," which are expected to be "close," they tend to play lower-scoring games. In fact, the UNDER is a profitable 8-1 the last nine Boise games, with a total, when the line ranged from -3 to +3. To a certain extent, that's also been the case for the Hokies. Virginia Tech has seen the UNDER go 16-9 the last 25 times that they played a game where the line ranged from -3 to +3. Virginia Tech almost has always has a tough defense. Last season, the Hokies allowed a mere 15.6 points per game, giving up only 295.5 yards of total offense. That's nothing new. Looking at the previous six years and we find that the Hokies allowed averages of 16.7, 16.1, 11, 12.9 and 12.8 points per game. This year's defense did suffer some big offseason losses. They've still got plenty of talent on that side of the ball though and Beamer always seems to get the most out of it. On offense, the Hokies run the ball regularly, which helps to keep the clock moving. With this game being played at Fed Ex Field, note that the Hokies have seen the UNDER go 15-7 their last 22 lined games on grass. Also, note that the UNDER is 3-1 the last four times that the Hokies played on a "neutral," field, when the total ranged from 49.5 to 52. I expect a hard-hitting affair with the final combined score again staying below the generous number. *8

I'm playing on Navy and Maryland to finish UNDER the total. Navy is coming off another quality season, finishing with 10 victories. The Midshipmen should be solid again this year. With their success in recent seasons, many have started to think of the Midshipmen as a high-scoring team. That's not exactly the case though. True, they averaged a respectable 28 points last season. However, the 19.4 points allowed per game was arguably more impressive. For the season, the 2009 Midshipmen saw the UNDER go 8-5. They've averaged less than 29 ppg in three of the past four seasons. Of course, running the ball so frequently helps to keep the clock moving. Maryland was poor on both sides of the ball last season. The Terps averaged only 21 points and allowed 31. With linebacker Alex Wujciak returning, the defense figures to be improved. Wujciak averaged nearly 11 tackles a game last season and earned All-ACC First-Team honors. Also, keep in mind that the Terps are normally quite stout defensively. Prior to last season, they'd allowed 22.5, 21.5, 21.8, 25, 20 and 15.8 the previous six seasons. In other words, last season was the exception, rather than the norm. The Terps, which saw the UNDER go 8-5 overall last season, have long been a profitable 'under' team, when playing in the underdog role and that's continued to the case the past couple of seasons. During that stretch, they've seen the UNDER go 11-6 when getting points. Navy has seen the UNDER go 5-3 in September the past two seasons. During that span, the Midshipmen have also seen the UNDER go 4-1 when playing on a "neutral" field. The last meeting between these teams produced 43 points. That game had an O/U line of 43, so the final score landed right on the number. This afternoon, we're getting several more points to work with and I feel that provides us with excellent value. *9

I'm playing on TULSA. I had East Carolina the last couple of times that the Pirates upset the Golden Hurricane, including last year's 44-17 destruction. I'm going with Tulsa this time though, as this should provide a great opportunity for the Golden Hurricane to exact some revenge. The Pirates have been the CUSA Champs in back to back seasons. This is a rebuilding year though. In addition to having a new coaching staff, the Pirates return only eight starters from last season, including just two on defense. They are inexperienced at quarterback and must learn new schemes on both sides of the ball. While the Pirates will surely take a step back this season, the Golden Hurricanes figure to be improved from last year. They return 14 starters, including nine on offense. Indeed they return offensive players which accounted for 98% of last season's rushing yards and 91% of last season's passing yards. That type of experience should provide a significant advantage vs. an inexperienced defense which is still learning its new system and which lost ALL of its starting defensive linemen. Tulsa coach Todd Graham was quoted as saying: "Usually early in the year, teams beat themselves. We're going to make sure we don't beat ourselves with stupid penalties and we're going to take care of the football and make sure we play disciplined, Tulsa football." The Golden Hurricane have been very strong in September in recent seasons, going 4-1 ATS in September lined games. On the other hand, even the strong ECU squads of the last couple of seasons have gone just 1-6 ATS in September. Those numbers only figure to get worse here. The Golden Hurricane dominated the Pirates the last time that they played here, a 31-10 victory in 2006. They should be a much improved team this season and I look for their edge in the experience department to more than compensate for the Pirates' home field advantage. *10

I'm playing on Texas Tech and SMU to finish UNDER the total. For years, with Mike Leach as head coach, the Red Raiders have been throwing the ball on practically every down. As you're probably aware though, Leach is gone and Tommy Tuberville (from Auburn) is now in charge. Not only will Tuberville have the team running the ball more regularly, but he should also bring significant improvement to the defensive side of the ball. While it will likely take a little time to adjust to the new 3-4 system, the Red Raiders' defenders should immediately benefit from the Texas Tech offense running the ball more often and staying on the field for longer stretches. In fairness, however, it should be noted that Red Raiders only gave up 22.5 points per game last season, including just 19 their final three games. SMU gave up 27.6 points last season but just 21.7 its final three games and only 21.7 in its four games on turf. The UNDER was 3-1 in those games and 4-2 when the Mustangs played on the road. The Mustangs offense was admittedly fairly potent last season. June Jones found his QB when Kyle Pardon took over midway through the year. Pardon, 5-1 as a starter, returns. He'll be without last year's #1 receiver (Emmanuel Sanders) though while running back Shawnbrey McNeal left for the NFL. The Mustangs have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the last 10 times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 17-5 (in games with totals) the last 22 times that they were in that role. These teams last met in 2008. That game stayed below the total by double-digits, finishing with a score of 43-7. That brought the UNDER to a perfect 4-0 in this series, dating back to 2004. While this one figures to be more competitive, I expect to see a similar final combined score here. *9

I'm laying the points with NOTRE DAME. As you're probably aware, there are a number of changes at Notre Dame this season. The changes start at the top with Brian Kelly taking over for Charlie Weis. While the Irish will need to deal with some of the changes in philosophy, Kelly's a proven winner. He'll be looking to make a statement in his first game and I feel that a home game vs. Purdue will provide the perfect opportunity for him to do so. With new defensive coordinator Bob Diaco switching to a 3-4, the Irish, who return 10 defensive starters, should be much better on defense this season. Diaco followed Kelly from Cincinnati. (The two also worked together before that.) Diaco's defense will the luxury of starting off against a Purdue offense which is still learning the ropes. Note that the Boilermakers' offense, which was already replacing its quarterback and three lineman, suffered another blow when Ralph Bolden, last year's leading rusher, went down with an ACL injury in the spring. Also, note that Diaco's Cincinnati defense ranked third nationally in tackles for loss and tied for 10th in sacks last season. Diaco worked fast, too, as last year was his first year at Cincinnati. He helped a good Cincinnati defense become much better. Note that when switching to Diaco's system last season, the Bearcats allowed 15 points in their opener and just three points in their home opener, the following week. (The Bearcats were 2-0 SU/ATS in those games, winning by a combined score of 117-18!) Bolden's injury was just one of many injuries that Purdue has had to deal with. All five scholarship running backs missed the spring game and quarterback Robert Marve "wore down" during the spring. Its on the defensive side of the ball where Purdue's real issues are though. Speaking of 'issues,' note that the Boilermakers are just 5-12 SU/ATS the last 17 times that they played a road game with a total in the 52.5 to 56 range. While Claussen and Tate are gone, the cupboard is far from bare on the Notre Dame offense. The receiving corps is still strong, led my Michael Floyd. Last year's leading rushers Armando Allen and Robert Hughes are both back. Dayne Crist is still unproven at QB but I expect him to prove capable. Kelly has led "turn-arounds" at his previous stops and he always seems to get the most of his quarterbacks. Crist should benefit from facing an inexperienced Purdue secondary. The Irish players are behind their QB. TE Kyle Rudolph had this to say to the Chicago Tribune about Crist: "Even though he was behind Jimmy, whether it was in the weight room or the classroom or on the practice field, everybody always viewed Dayne as a leader." The Irish won by "only" three points at Purdue last season. They could have won by more though, as they were up by double-digits at halftime and had a solid edge in the stats department. The most recent game here at Notre Dame was in 2008. The Irish were laying only -2 or -2.5 points and they won by 17. Prior to that, in 2006, the Irish beat Purdue by 14 here. Kelly is well aware of that history and doesn't want to start his tenure by achieving less than previous Notre Dame teams have in the series. I expect Kelly to have his team ready and look for them to start the "new era" with a convincing double-digit victory. *10

I'm taking the points with EASTERN MICHIGAN. With all the games on the Opening Saturday board, who wants to bet on a team which was 0-12 last season? That answer is not very many people. As a result, the oddsmakers are forced to give a very generous number with Eastern Michigan. That number has climbed even higher since its opener and I believe that's providing us with plenty of value with what figures to be a highly motivated home underdog. Speaking of "line value," you may recall that these teams faced each other in last year's season opener. That game, which was also played here, marked the debut for both head coaches. The Eagles entered that game as the favorite, as they were laying -3.5 points. (Army won by 13.) Now, exactly one year later, in the same venue, we've got a swing in the line of nearly two full touchdowns. Again, I feel that provides us with excellent value, particularly as Eastern Michigan should be an improved team this season. Eastern Michigan coach Ron English had this to say: "There is no doubt that our players will be bigger, stronger, tougher and coached better than they were a year ago." Army coach Ellerson was quoted as saying: "The thing that I'm the most uneasy about is that there are a handful of guys who have played a big role, and that we anticipate will play a huge role in our team this coming season, who didn't practice because they were coming off of a shoulder, or a knee, or an ankle that precluded them from being able to have a spring ball...so you just worry about what surprises might be out there physically." Note that Army is 1-5 ATS the last six times it was laying points on the road and 7-12 ATS the last 19 times that it was favored in the -3.5 to -10 range overall. Prior to last year's 13-point game, these teams saw their 2008 meeting decided by only four points. Even last year's game saw the Eagles have an edge in first downs. (It would have been closer if Army had not scored a touchdown off a Eastern Michigan turnover inside their own 10.) English and the Eagles have had to endure a year of jokes about their winless record. They've got payback on their minds from last season's loss to Army on this field - the start of it all. I expect them to deliver an inspired effort and look for them to give the Knights all they can handle. *9

I'm playing on ST. LOUIS. The Cardinals earned a badly needed victory in yesterday's series opener, continuing their recent domination of the Reds. The Cards are now 4-0 their last four vs. the Reds and 14-6 the last 20 times that they were a host in the series. They need to keep winning and this afternoon's matchup should provide them with the perfect opportunity to do so. While he hasn't been quite as dominant his last few starts, Wainwright has had a spectacular season. He's now 17-9 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.019 WHIP for the year. His last two starts have both come on the road. Now, he returns home, where he's been particularly dominant. In 13 home starts, Wainwright has gone 11-1 with a 1.42 ERA and 0.892. Even the one loss saw him allow only three runs through seven innings. With this being an afternoon start, its also worth noting that Wainwright has gone 9-2 with a 1.89 ERA during the day. In his most recent start vs. the Reds, Wainwright tossed seven shutout innings. He allowed only two hits and didn't walk a batter. The Cards won 6-1. Wood goes for the Reds and he's got a terrible 10.00 ERA and 2.20 WHIP his last two starts. In nine innings, he's given up 10 runs on 17 hits while allowing five walks. While the Reds would love to snap their slide in this series, with Wainwright getting the better of Wood, they'll have to wait another day to do so. *6

I'm playing on FLORIDA. The suddenly surging Marlins grabbed yesterday's series opener by a 6-1 margin. With their ace on the mound, they should have a significant edge again this evening. Johnson has primarily been pitching on the road of late. Last time out, facing these same Braves at Atlanta, he allowed a single unearned run in six innings. He's got a 0.75 ERA in two starts vs. Atlanta this season. Now, he returns home where he's gone 7-2 with a 1.48 ERA and 0.904 WHIP. Only Wainwright has a better home ERA in all of baseball. The Marlins are a profitable 11-3 in Johnson's starts here. On the other hand, Jurrjens is 0-4 on the road with an ugly 6.62 ERA. The Braves are just 3-6 in his nine road starts. The Marlins have been excellent as home favorites of this size, in no small part due to Johnson's dominance here. Given the matchup, I feel that the price is more than reasonable. *8

I'm taking the points with ILLINOIS. This is the final of six games that these teams will have played at St. Louis. That suits the Illini fine as the Tigers have dominated them here. Indeed, Missouri has won all five meetings here, including three in the last three years. Last year was arguably the worst (and most embarrassing) loss in the series for the Illini. Illinois came in as the favorite, laying -6.5 points. Yet, despite being favored, the Illini found themselves down 30-3 before they knew what hit them. The Tigers would go on to win by a score of 37-9. That loss was the beginning of an awful 1-6 start for the Illini. Naturally, they'll be hoping for a much better start this season, while also looking to dish out some 'payback.' This year, instead of laying points, the Illini find themselves as double-digit underdogs. Last year's result notwithstanding and with all due respect to the Tigers, I feel that's far too big of a swing in the pointspread. The Illini should be improved this season and they've certainly got no shortage of motivation. Yet, we're getting a swing of more than two touchdowns. Yes, the Illini return only 12 starters. However, they also lost only 16 letterman, the fewest lost in the Big-10. The Illini bring back four of their top five tacklers on defense and a rushing attack which ranked 17th nationally in 2009 with 200.4 ypg. True, the Tigers are an experienced and solid team. They're not without issues though and they've also really struggled as favorites of this size. In fact, the Tigers are a money-burning 1-7 ATS the last eight times that they were listed as favorites in the -10.5 to -21 range. Prior to last year's blowout, the previous three meetings in this series were all decided by 10 points or less. I look for this one to also be closer than most are expecting and am grabbing the double-digits with the revenge-minded Illini. *8

I'm playing on Oakland and LA to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener managed to sneak 'over' the total by half a run. I expect a lower-scoring affair this afternoon. Jered Weaver has pitched very well this season. In 28 starts, he's got a solid 3.12 ERA and 1.099 WHIP. He's averaged 6 1/2 innings per start and has an extremely impressive 200 K's with only 48 walks. He hasn't gotten much run support though. The combination of his solid pitching and the lack of run support has led to the UNDER going a profitable 18-8-2. Over his last three starts, the Angels haven't given Weaver a single run to work with. All three games stayed below the total with the Angels getting outscored by a combined score of 11-0. Unfortunately for Weaver, given the "home dominance" of Oakland's starter, he isn't likely to get much run support here either. Cahill checks in with a 8-2 record and 1.84 ERA at home this season. The UNDER has gone a perfect 10-0 (with one push) in those games and is a highly profitable 17-5-2 in his 24 starts overall. Add it up and we find the UNDER at a combined 35-13-4 when these two starters have taken the mound. With the UNDER also at a lucrative 27-13 when Oakland has played during the day, I expect another "pitcher's duel." *8