When analyzing baseball battles, patterns can emerge. A pitcher may have success against one team over a span of a few years; a team may be great at home, terrible on the road; or a lineup may struggle consistently against lefty starters. All these details provide clues as to which team might have an edge on the diamond.

This is what successful handicapping over the long haul is all abou ...  read more

This is a good time of the baseball season to take a second careful look at starting pitching. Pitchers need time to work. They need to pitch regularly to build up arm strength and hone their command. You often see a pitcher throw a couple of good innings and then, WHAM, he gets pounded, giving up 4 hits and 3 runs in the blink of an eye.

If you watch the slow-motion replays of what is ...  read more

It's only June, but already there have been some surprises and some busts this baseball season. Here's a look at some of baseball's disappointments.

Mariners: The addition of strikeout king Eric Bedard to potential ace Felix Hernandez gave Seattle a dynamite one-two lefty/righty punch atop the rotation, a goal of every team. Yet, they are second worst in team ERA in the American Leagu ...  read more

Pitching is probably the most prized commodity in baseball. The baseball draft just took place and while Tampa Bay took a shortstop with the No. 1 overall pick, notice that the previous two years young pitchers went No. 1 in lefty David Price (Rays) and righty Luke Hochevar (Royals). Pitchers develop differently than offensive players and get hurt more easily, so stockpiling arms is essential.

...  read more

The NBA Finals finds the top two teams in each conference meeting, old rivals the Lakers and Celtics. It’s a battle of matchups and tempo. The Lakers are young, athletic and prefer an uptempo pace, averaging 108 ppg this season. Boston can play both styles, but prefers an intense, defensive style, which has been evident in all their playoff wins.

The matchups are going to be fascinating ...  read more

One aspect of handicapping that’s important to focus in on, especially now that we are several weeks into the season, is the mood of a team. Some clubs are off to better than expected starts, like the Rays, Marlins and Braves. Players on teams like this can be excited about coming to work each day and look forward to playing. Other times, players and teams can be disappointing because of high expe ...  read more

Yes, that NBA playoff roar you're hearing is a different animal from the one you saw and heard during the regular season. The games are different. One, they mean more. Two, teams see each other 4 to 7 times in the span of a week or two. This makes adjustments a huge factor by the coaching staffs. Just as important are moves NOT made by coaches, usually because some coaches aren't good enough to r ...  read more

It’s essential for sports handicappers to understand the significance of home and road play. Teams in all sports usually play significantly better at home than on the road for a variety of reasons. Think about all the inconveniences when you travel on the road: Time spent driving to the airport, parking, luggage, a plane ride through different time zones, red-eye flights means having your sleep i ...  read more

One aspect of handicapping that’s important to focus in on, especially now that we are several weeks into the season, is the mood of a team. Some clubs are off to better than expected starts, like the Orioles, White Sox and Marlins. Players on teams like this can be excited about coming to work each day and look forward to playing. Other times, players and teams can be disappointing because of hi ...  read more

There are a lot of fantasy baseball leagues and players around the country. Drafting and analyzing players on a day to day basis is an excellent tool for handicapping baseball games. The fantasy players need to examine each player’s stats and injury status to see whether they should be in the lineup or not. Players go into slumps, get hurt, or don’t necessarily match up well against a particular ...  read more

During the regular season handicappers carefully look at spots where teams are playing long road stretches and back to back spots. For instance, playing a game on Monday, then playing again Wednesday and Friday is far different from playing Sunday and Monday, then Wednesday and Thursday. The latter is a four-games-in-five-nights stretch, one of the most difficult scheduling spots in the NBA. An ...  read more

The Nuggets and Lakers are going to be interesting to watch this NBA postseason. Not because they’re playing each other in the first round, but because they are teams far better on offense than defense. That’s because you advance in the playoffs more often than not with defense.

Look what happened three years ago when the Denver Nuggets met the Spurs in the playoffs. The Nuggets had su ...  read more

Relievers in baseball don’t get much of the glory. Nor do they get much attention, except when they blow saves or walk in the winning run in the 10th. Still, for sports bettors, examining bullpens is a very important handicapping tool. Understand that starting pitchers generally go 6-7 innings, even very good starters. That still leaves, on average, a third of the game up to the relievers. And ...  read more

One often overlooked avenue of baseball is the free pass, players drawing walks or pitchers issuing too many four-ball freebies. From a handicapping point of view, this can reap benefits, especially this time of year with the beginning of a brand new season.

Last year Indians lefty C.C. Sabathia won the Cy Young award winning 19 games. Pinpoint control was a huge part of his success, wa ...  read more

So how did the Royals sweep the Tigers? Detroit couldn’t hit! Despite all that offensive power the Tigers have on paper, they struggled to score runs. If you look at the third full day of baseball last Thursday, the unders started out 7-1 that day. All of which is not uncommon this time of the year.

From a handicapping perspective the cooler April weather adds a key dimension. One is th ...  read more

As we wind down the NBA regular season, just like college basketball, we find several teams fighting for their postseason lives. Atlanta is battling New Jersey, Philadelphia and Indiana for the final playoff spot in the East. The Hawks rely on their veteran backcourt for points. Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby delivered, combining for 41 points in the Hawks' 114-109 win over New York Sunday to keep th ...  read more

As we wind down the end of the regular season, this is a great week to look at teams that have already packed in the season. There happens to be tough road trips this week for some REALLY bad NBA teams. Take the Knicks – please. The Knicks just had their 50th defeat, on the path to the franchise's first 60-loss season. On a mission to drop to the lottery's second seed, the Knicks were thrashed by ...  read more

What’s blue and red and has no home? The LA Clippers! That is, the Clippers have played 11 of the last 12 games in Los Angeles, and yet they are a miserable 1-8 straight up and 2-7 against the spread the last nine games. They’ve played only two official road games during that stretch, and one of them was against the LA Lakers in their own city. And it didn’t help, as they got blown out 119-8 ...  read more

Baseball wagering is about money-lines and value, meaning you have to pick straight up winners, not point spreads. There are many surprise teams each season. Some are teams that were expected to be weak or mediocre but explode as one of the better teams in the league, making a pennant run. Other times, surprise teams are ones that were supposed to be real bad but end up closer to .500. Teams in th ...  read more

So who’s up and who’s down this week in the NBA? One way to get a sense of who might get hot or go cold is the schedule. The NBA trades last week got all the attention, but handicappers and oddsmakers take careful notice of road trips and situational spots.

One team that might get hot this week is Boston. The Celtics have been working Kevin Garnett back into the lineup after a lengthy lay- ...  read more

The Bermuda Triangle is etched in American folklore as a mysterious place where planes and ships have encountered all kinds of difficulties. It’s an enigma dripping with fear, as some unfortunate people have entered the triangle and have never been heard from again. In the NBA, there’s a similar place not as deadly, but certainly one that elicits fear among professional athletes: The Texas Tr ...  read more

There are many places to find edges in basketball. One of the best is to identify changes taking place with a team before oddsmakers catch up. Coaching changes, injuries, home/road play, freshmen stepping up, even changes in philosophy all can significantly alter how a team performs both straight up and against the number.

The most obvious example will be a team like the Phoenix Suns, how ...  read more

This is an interesting time of the sports betting calendar for college basketball season. Some teams are out of it, seemingly giving up on a lost season. Other teams are playing much better in the second half of the season than the first, and still others can be more focused on the Big Dance than conference tournament play.

It's important to try and gauge where a team's heart is. Is it f ...  read more

Situations can be just as important as matchups or trends when analyzing pro and college basketball games. Sometimes even more so. For instance, a team with outstanding rebounding ability, like the Pistons or Spurs, matchup-wise might have a clear defensive and rebounding edge going against an opponent with an undersized frontcourt, such as the Hawks or 76ers.

However, if San Antonio i ...  read more

When injuries to key players happen in the NBA, oddsmakers certainly pay attention. No Shaq in Miami? The line most definitely will be adjusted, many times significantly. No Yao Ming or Tracy McGrady in Houston? Absolutely that will cause an adjustment.

However, one needs to analyze each team very carefully when deciding to wager on or against clubs that have key injuries. Last year Mi ...  read more

Let’s show some sympathy for the Packers. After all, the story line was there: Veteran Brett Favre leading the youngest team in the NFL into the Super Bowl. However, you have to get it done on the field, not in a Hollywood script. The Packers had never lost a playoff at home in their first eight decades of existence, but have now been toppled three times in the last six years. Ouch.

They lo ...  read more

There’s often a significant difference in basketball handicapping with home/road play and stats. Not only scoring and defensive stats, but wins and losses, both straight up and against the spread. One key variable to take into account is experience. Take a look at what Detroit Pistons guard Chauncey Billups said last week: "Anytime we come back, and I don't care who we play, off a four-game tri ...  read more

A key to deciphering basketball point spreads and totals is finding out what is going on inside a team. Stats can only tell you so much. Are the players passionate? Is the coach competent? Does one injury make a difference? Or will an injury bury a team for a stretch?

Find out what players and coaches are saying is an excellent way to get inside the huddle and practices of teams. However, ...  read more

College basketball conference play is in full bloom. It’s an excellent idea to examine a team’s non-conference slate as they head into conference competition. Some teams fatten up on cupcakes and are not as well equipped for conference play. Other teams play tough schedules, which may cost them with a few losses, but it better prepares them for the middle portion of the season.

For inst ...  read more

College basketball is largely about match-ups. My concerns when analyzing games and the point spread are: Can this team defend the three-pointer? Is emotion a part of a match-up? Does the home team have a dominant inside game that the opponent won't be able to contain? Is one team soft on defense?

Analyzing questions like this can identify excellent wagering opportunities. I used a ma ...  read more

I’ve been on both sides of the betting counter when it comes to making numbers. I’ve been a professional bettor searching for bad lines for years, and I’ve made sides and totals for various sports books. Line movement is a fascinating part of the world of sports betting.

A lot of people think that line movement is primarily because some big bettor has inside information and loads up on a ...  read more

The regular season of the NFL is behind us, which means the surviving teams are battling for the Super Bowl. There has been a lot of jostling regarding playoff positioning over the last few weeks. And now that it’s finally resolved, here’s something to keep in mind as the first round playoff games kick off: Teams that get the bye week have a big edge.

I’m not just talking about home fi ...  read more

NBA coaches are in the news again with Scott Skiles getting the axe in Chicago. Skiles said, "Today was my day to be held accountable." This team had underachieved and Skiles had tried all different kinds of combinations the last two years to try and jumpstart the team. This brings up an interesting handicapping dynamic. The players on the court have to defend, pass the ball and know what to do in ...  read more

Professional handicappers are always in tune with potential emotional situations. This time of the football season offers more avenues than usual, such as a team off a bad game looking to bounce back, or college football bowl games and NFL divisional games.

Florida Atlantic was a good example, rolling over Memphis 44-27 in the second bowl game of the season. Florida Atlantic was only in ...  read more

Coaching in pro football is not easy, and frankly, there are far more bad/mediocre coaches than very good ones. Just ask Detroit Lion fans the last seven years. This is the time of the season when coaches can be a huge factor in whether a team is motivated or not. Many NFL teams are already out of it and there are fans more focused on who they will take in the NFL draft than the remainder of the 2 ...  read more

I was delighted to see money come in on the Broncos in their Thursday night game at Houston. Home dogs can often have extra incentive, and value, this time of the football season. Teams fighting for playoff berths can rise up and give a great effort in front of the home fans, even against a better team.

Other teams who are having bad seasons can rise up late in the year to give the fa ...  read more

It has been an unusual year in college football with endless shocking upsets, and in the NFL with record-setting point spreads surrounding the record-setting Patriots offense and the stumbling Dolphins going in the opposite direction. It’s also brought about an amazing number of comments from players and coaches, something rarely seen as the NFL prefers to stay as far away from Las Vegas as possi ...  read more

When examining football totals, many focus on the offensive strengths for overs or weaknesses on unders. Does this team have a decent quarterback? Can they pass the football? Could the weather be a factor? Is the game indoors? Does this team have a capable backup QB if the starter is hurting?

All of these things are worth taking into account. However, it’s just as important to look at ...  read more

There are all kinds of match-ups to examine in football, such as the running game, the defensive line, coaching, home field, hot streaks, and injuries. However, let's not overlook some of the most basic elements of football handicapping. Who met in the Super Bowl last year? The Bears and Colts. One team had a QB (the winning team) and the other one didn’t.

Two years ago? The Seahawks ...  read more

Good handicappers put a circle around a team every time they have an exciting fourth quarter comeback. One betting angle that's worth playing attention to is how a team performs the week after a fourth-quarter comeback. Often times the team's excitement carries over the following week, especially if that team is in the race for a playoff spot or a division title. Simply put, it appears that the ...  read more

Handicappers across the board look for value. There are many different variations of value, but the bottom line is finding a betting number that is not what you think it should be, or one that varies from your own power rankings. When examining basketball teams, I group NBA teams in four categories, A, B, C and D.

Those in group A, for example, would be a healthy team that is the elite of t ...  read more

The times that try men’s souls! Late season football brings pressures on teams that weren’t there early in the season. This might not be a concern for veteran teams that have had some success. But for veteran teams that have a recent history of failure or young teams, it can be an extra handicapping dimension to consider.

Anyone who saw the Lions on Thanksgiving Day could see this. It wa ...  read more

NBA handicapping early in the season offers outstanding wagering value. You can’t go by last year’s stats, as players and coaches have changed. Golden State, for example, traded away Jason Richardson in the offseason for rookie Brandon Wright. They’ve had growing pains with the new personnel, not to mention numerous injuries.

The Houston Rockets used to be a slow down, defensive team unde ...  read more

Successful handicappers, like profitable businesses, know the importance of flexibility. Business strategies that worked six months ago might not work now, with consumer tastes changing, interest rate adjustments or simple market shifts. Being flexible to changes is essential. It’s the same in sports handicapping. Sometimes teams start of 5-0 looking like a juggernaut, but injuries can change thei ...  read more

I remember 1982 well growing up in Cleveland. The Browns were slowly building a team that would make some noise on the NFL horizon, the young Cavaliers hoped they had found a shining star in the NBA draft, and the Indians were still searching for their first World Series title since 1948. How times have changed!

While the year might have been a bit thin on hope for Cleveland's pro franchis ...  read more

I'm not trying to be flippant, but a question that handicappers need to ask this time of year is “Who Really Cares?” Ask it to certain college and NFL teams, that is. We are at that point in the college football season where some teams are fighting for conference titles, winning seasons, and potential bowl berths. Of course, other teams are already out of it, guaranteed a losing season and possibl ...  read more

If an NFL team is averaging 18 points per game, that's about average. However, a handicapper should not stop there when analyzing a team's offense. If that offense scored 10 points in each of its first four games, then scored 28 in each of its last four, that's a VERY significant difference. They may be averaging 18 per game overall, but it's far more important to me that they are averaging 28 the ...  read more

I'm a strong proponent of situational handicapping, which examines factors beyond match-ups. This doesn't mean I ignore match-ups. Quite the contrary, I look at match-ups and situations equally. Combining the two can make for outstanding point spread opportunities.

This is the time of the college football season when situational handicapping can come on very strong. Situations like rival ...  read more

There are many different handicapping strategies to look at during football season: Betting angles, trends, statistical matchups, situational handicapping, and many more. There are also tried and true methods, too, which shouldn’t be overlooked. Statistics are the most basic of handicapping analysis. There are many revealing factors, as well as highly unusual stats, that crop up in every Sunday NF ...  read more

We are at that point in the season where games are meaningful for some teams and meaningless for others. Nebraska dropped 3 straight in the Big 12, getting blown out badly, which sinks any hopes they might have had for a Big 12 title game shot. The defense is certainly playing with little life or intensity.

Kansas, on the other hand, has a strong defense and loads of motivation, with a 7 ...  read more