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Westgate Super Contest Week 8 and Behavioral Forecasting

By: John Ryan
Date: Oct 31, 2018
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The Westgate Super Contest Week 8 Results John Ryan Sports @JohnRyanSports1 Each week during the NFL season, I extract all of the plays selected by the 3,152 entries in the Westgate Super Contest. I have used the data to assemble consensus wagering and to provide a bit of a litmus test for public betting sentiment. This past week, the Super Contest Top-5 went 5-0 ATS led by GB covering the number no matter what Gurley did or might have done at the goal line since the line for the contest was +9.5, Philadelphia covered against Jacksonville as a 3-point favorite, Washington won moving to 5-2 SU as a pick'em, Seattle +3 covered easily as did Chicago. After back-t-back 1-4 ATS results in Week 5 and 6, the Top-5 most picked teams went 9-1 ATS the most recent two weeks. For the season, the record now stands at 21-19 ATS. The team name Personal Gourmet moved into first place in the SuperContest with an amazing 32-8 ATS 80% mark. No one has ever finished higher than 68% ATS for the season, so based on the fundamental laws of probability, Personal Gourmet may have some indigestion over the next few weeks as an 80% ATS clip is in an unsustainable territory. That’s not to say fade their picks either as several weeks of 2-3 or 3-2 would serve to bring the winning percentage back down below 70% and if you bet against them you’d lose money. However, there are bodies of data that truly can help build some meaningful consensus intelligence. I also sort and filter the teams that went 5-0 ATS, 0-5 ATS., teams with season-to-date win percentages above 70% ATS and below 30% ATS. These groupings have provided some valuable insight that can be supportive of a play graded by machine learning and algorithm-based programs. The Top-5 selected teams of those entries that went 5-0 ATS the prior week were Minnesota, who lost and did not cover against the Saints, Green Bay, who lost, but covered to the Rams, Washington, who covered, Carolina, who covered easily against Baltimore, and Philadelphia, who covered in London. So, those teams that 5-0 ATS in Week 7 produced a solid 4-1 ATS mark in Week 8 based on their grouping of Top-5 most popular selections. Now, there are dozens of other mathematical formulas and Python machine learning packages I utilize to get even deeper in to the data and possible combinations and groupings of data that provide solid picks on their own merit. If you would like to learn more, find me on Twitter and send a private message and we’ll set up a time to talk. @JohnRyanSports1

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