Plenty of upsets in the West
region, but the UCLA Bruins are still the favorite. There
were plenty of upsets in the first two rounds of the NCAA
tournament, and the West region had a chunk of them. No. 4 UConn and No. 5 Drake fell in the first round, while
No. 2 Duke made it as far as the second until No. 7 West
Virginia easily dispatched them. What this means is that most bracketologists were right about
the West: No. 1 UCLA has the easiest ride to the Final Four. But
it doesn't mean they can put their game on cruise control. No. 3 Xavier and West Virginia have both shown that they
could give UCLA a tough game in the Elite Eight, while
anything's possible for No. 12 Western Kentucky with their two
stars Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton playing lights-out
basketball. Bruins' First-Half Woes Could Be Their Undoing As 12.5-point favorites over Western Kentucky, it appears
that the UCLA Bruins are still seen as the most dominant squad
in the West region. And why not? On paper, the Hilltoppers
aren't in the same league as the Bruins. Xavier has the balance
to hang but not the stardom. And West Virginia has the stardom
to hang (Joe Alexander) but not the balance. But there's one thing that should concern UCLA fans come
Thursday: their first half performances. The Bruins haven't led at halftime in six of their last eight
games, and one of those first-half wins should be a write-off,
since it was against an outclassed Mississippi Valley State team
in the first round. The Bruins have gotten so used to their first-half woes, it
seems like they're starting to look at the positive side for
their struggles. "That was reminiscent of a lot of games we seem to be in
lately, where we're having to make dramatic comebacks in the
last few minutes," UCLA coach Ben Howland said after their 51-49
comeback win over Texas A&M in the second round. "But the one
thing that I love about our team is that they know in their
heart they're always going to win the game. They're going to
find a way." They could be lost by the time the second half tips off
versus the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky play their best ball in
the first half, averaging 38 points, and they haven't lost all
year when they've led. And though they've allowed their past two
opponents to make runs in the second, the Hilltoppers, unlike
Texas A&M have the stars to keep UCLA at bay if they make their
usual second-half run. Western Kentucky's backcourt combination of Lee and Brazelton
has shown that they have the star power to score during pressure
situations. Lee had 29 points against No. 13 San Diego,
including four of five makes from 3-point land while Brazelton
dropped 33 and hit six 3s in their dramatic win over Drake. "He hit a big shot, but he hit big shots all day," San Diego
coach Bill Grier said about Lee after their 72-63 loss. "I think
he's a future NBA kid. He played a terrific game at the right
time." Xavier's Balance Give Them the Edge Over West
Virginia Unlike the other three squads in the West that made it to the
Sweet 16, the Xavier Musketeers don't rely on one or two stars
to win. All they use is balance. "We have a number of different players that can answer the
bell on offense," Musketeers coach Sean Miller said. "It's a
really unique team to guard, because on different nights
different people can beat you." All five starters on the Musketeers score at least 10 points
per game, but not one averages over 12. It's that kind of
unselfishness that makes them a handful for any team looking to
find a way to stifle their offense. "That's why I love this team,” senior guard Stanley Burrell
said. “We play for each other. We don't do any individual things
whatsoever. It's all about the team and how we can help Xavier
get to the next level. I'm so proud of these guys." No. 6 Purdue felt the wrath of Xavier's balanced attack in
the second round. Only one player on the team was held scoreless
and four reached double digits. With that kind of balance, the
fairly stingy Boilermaker defense (they hold opponents to 62.4
points per game) gave up 85 points in regulation and 50 in the
second half, shocking Purdue coach Matt Painter. "At times, we just could not stop them," Painter said. That could make it a tough night for West Virginia (even
though they're currently favored by one point). The Mountaineers
allowed Duke and Arizona to score over 60 points, and their
offense can be contained because it relies on one player: Joe
Alexander. Arizona was able to stifle him in the first round. He had
just 14 points off 4-12 shooting after averaging 26.3 in his
past six, which made for a closer contest than the final score
(75-65) would indicate. Xavier has a better defense than Arizona
(the Musketeers rank 48th in the NCAA while the Wildcats ranked
130th) and should be able to dispatch the Mountaineers if their
other role players don't step up. Best Bet Can't go wrong with Western Kentucky against the spread
at the current price of +12.5. The Bruins struggle out the gate
while the Hilltoppers thrive. That should make the game close
even if the Bruins turn it up in the second. UCLA will likely
pull off another nail biter, but the Hilltoppers should cover. Headed to the Final Four Despite my reservations that they're too relaxed in the first
half, I'm going to stick with UCLA in this one. Xavier has the
defensive mentality and the unselfishness to make it a tough
matchup for the Bruins in the Elite Eight, but the Bruins have
all those things along with two stars, Kevin Love and Darren
Collison. As many predicted, the Bruins will make it out of the
West.
The Hilltoppers will try to up the tempo early to keep UCLA from
using their lock-down D in the half court. If the Bruins don't
respond, they could dig themselves a hole they might not be able
to get out of.
Team (Seed)
Odds
Western Kentucky
14/1
West Virginia
9/2
UCLA
2/5
Xavier
9/2
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