We are 5 weeks into college football and we have seen a pretty dynamic shift in Heisman odds since the beginning of the year. This shift is not surprising to me whatsoever, but it does make it pretty hard to make a lot of great bets with all of my favorite preseason picks moving to the top of the board.

Since last February, I have been incredibly outspoken about how Trevor Lawrence’s Heisman odds were borderline insane and I really tried to abuse this horrible price to get good prices on the best options. 5 weeks into the season this strategy worked out really well and I don’t need to be super active because my old bets are following through. There is still a long way to go, so I want to break down how I will continue with my old strategy and how to get the best odds if you are late to the party.

Trevor Lawrence and Clemson’s offense look horrible and this has made the old Heisman favorite drop to +7500 or worse in some spots. What that means is that we have a lot of new faces jumping towards the top, mainly Joe Burrow (+500), Jalen Hurts (+300), and Justin Fields (+500). This also means that Tua’s odds (+110) are also increasing.

Trying to Lock Down the Field

Hedging out of a good future bets is a practice that is not often talked about so I want to talk about how I plan on attacking my past strategy with the new odds. I have tickets on Tua at +350, Jalen Hurts at +1200 and Justin Fields at +1700 from different times in the summer.

Now these 3 are with Joe Burrow as the clear top 4 guys in my opinion. For now, I plan on staying pat in my bets and waiting to see if Burrow can continue this pace. I don’t NEED to jump on Burrow right now because I just don’t think he has a lot of upward mobility left barring major setbacks from the other guys until he plays Alabama. I will hold off on betting Burrow hoping that he struggles and I never have to lock in that ticket.

If Burrow continues, I have room to add him to the card at a similar price and get all 4 of the favorites on the board, which is not a bad situation to be in.

Dabbling Off the Board

If you want to take a long shot that can jump into this conversation, I think that the best bet is Texas QB Sam Ehlinger at +2800. I just think that his odds should be higher due to his massive upward mobility. Ehlinger has had a great season so far and he could easily stay with the pack when it comes to statistical production.

Now we need to find a narrative that lets Sam enter the conversation. How about going undefeated and beating Oklahoma twice in route to a 12-1 season where you played great in your loss and maybe even lost to a top 5 team at that point in time? I think this is very viable at +2800.

Join the Party

If you want to jump in on the fun, I think that Justin Fields has the most upward mobility at the top of the board. Ohio State has been the most dominant team in the first month and if they continue to play like this vs. more proven teams, I think we could be talking about the best player on the best team in college football.

Also, Fields has yet to throw an interception in his college career and he is taking care of the ball at an elite level, which is a nice stat to throw out during the final stretch. The real key here is that IF Ohio State plays closer games, Justin Fields will be asked to do more and I think that Fields would look like the best player in the country if that is the case.

Fields is a slightly bigger, faster, and more athletic version of Jalen Hurts with a much better arm and I think that Ohio State has kept a lot of his versatility out of the playbook so far. Last week, we saw them run 5 wide, QB runs on 3rd and 10 with ease and I think that is just the beginning for Fields. I think he has a shot to beat out Jalen and Tua statistically and with the eye-test, and I just think that their odds should all be very similar at this stage.

No matter who you bet on to win the 2019 Heisman, head over to one of our favorite pay per head bookie sites at PayPerHead247 and get your bet in!

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