We are a little less than half way through the college football season and now is a great time to peek into the futures market and see if there is any value to be had. I think that the college football futures market is one of the most flawed markets at any book and I think that there is a lot to take advantage of here when looking at the National Champion odds.

The Candidates

Let’s start this evaluation by listing the teams with an opportunity to make a playoff and have any chance of being respected in those markets. I am willing to make futures bets on teams that I think cannot actually win the championship as long as I think that they will get into a situation where their odds are much higher than they currently are. Here is my list of what I’ll call betable options:

Ohio State

Alabama

LSU

Georgia

Oklahoma

Texas

Wisconsin

Penn State

Clemson

There are three teams that I would understand arguments for in Florida, Michigan, and Notre Dame, but I think that these teams would be laughed at if they were to get into the playoff anyways and thus I have no real interest. To add onto this, Wisconsin and Penn State are both likely teams that would not get respect if they were placed into a 4 team playoff today. However, them getting into the playoff would likely require them to get wins over Ohio State and another top 10-15 team in the Big Ten Championship game.

Take Your Pick

I think that there is one clear bet to be made here and it is not even close, but we will get into that pick and the reasoning why I believe that to be the case in a little while. Now is when I tell you how INSANE it is to still see Clemson have +200 odds to win the national championship.

I have been the biggest Clemson hater you will find out there since the day after they beat Alabama last year in the national championship. Alabama last season had multiple critical flaws last season that allowed Clemson to beat them handily with a few good breaks and elite players, but people acted like Clemson was the best team of all time. This year, they lose SEVEN all ACC defensive players and they are just crowned champions before the game starts.

 In the last 10+ years of college football, the national programs have recruited at an elite level and they basically never have huge drop-offs in talent from one year to the next. Since 247Sports started doing comprehensive roster talent lists in 2015, Alabama and Ohio State have been in the top 3 in every season besides the 2016 Ohio State team that was 5th in roster talent.

However over this time, we have seen Clemson ascend to the top of college football without this elite recruiting. I just simply think that this was bound to catch up to them. You can develop and coach players really well, but if you do not have the horses, you will not be a consistently dominant team. Over the last 3 years, Clemson’s recruiting has not been very good, especially for an elite program, outside of some big names like Trevor Lawrence and Justyn Ross.

Just because we know the names of the 5 best players doesn’t mean that the team is fantastic because it just isn’t. Clemson has the second fewest amount of elite recruits in the top 10, ahead of only Wisconsin. They don’t have even have NFL-ready players at every position group, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

Clemson should be a 10+ point underdog to Alabama and Ohio State on a neutral field tomorrow and I think that this number is massively overweighting their easy entrance into the playoffs with their horrible schedule. Why this matters is that Clemson’s odds are sandbagging EVERYONE else’s odds way too much. I would be fine betting on anyone other than Clemson simply because the value is there.

The Best Bet

Why is Ohio State behind Georgia? Huh? I just do not see it.

Ohio State has more overall talent on their roster than everyone besides Alabama and I think that if you were to account for Alabama’s key injuries, you would actually flip Ohio State to #1 in overall talent. They have played like the best team in the country so far and they have a much easier path to the CFP than Georgia, that may need to beat Bama on a neutral site just to make in into the CFP.

 If you take a collection of 52 different college football computer systems built on inputting current statistical team data and ask them to rank teams based on the play on the field. 40 of the 52 would tell you that Ohio State is #1 with an average ranking of 1.41. The real kicker here is that the second best average placing in these polls is Alabama at 4.04!

The data suggests that Ohio State is ahead of the pack in CFB right now and I think that anyone that watches all of these games would be hard pressed to argue against that based on what we have seen. PFF has Ohio State graded as the #1 team in the country. Phil Steele has Ohio State grading out as the clear best team in the country. 

Now what if I told you that they are +700? I just DO NOT get it. Take that bet all night long and you should have no problem hedging out if you want in a playoff. I think that Ohio State will be favored in one, if not both CFP games if they manage to get there. Take a look at the current betting odds and get your wagers placed at our top pay per head bookie site at RealBookies.

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