Denver at Kansas City
September 28th, 2008 1:00 EST start
Line: KC + 9.5
First, I would like to review last week’s games. Is there any defense in this league? There were numerous come from behind miracles this past weekend. Tampa’s QB Griese threw 67 times and was not sacked once. He put together THREE scoring drives totaling 232 yards in the 4th quarter and OT to defeat the Bears. The 3-0 Bills went on drives of 96 and 69 yards in the 4th quarter to defeat the Raiders. Even the Giants gave up drives of 82 and 71 yards late in the 4th quarter to the Bengals and had to fight them off in OT. The Broncos and Saints combined for 66 points, which 18 points higher than the league average to this point in the season.
The only game that was low scoring was a physical smash mouth game in Philadelphia. The Eagles won 15-6 over the Steelers and it was also a 7* Monster loser for our clients. The NFC East so far this season has only lose to members of their division and are a perfect 8-0 out of the division to this point.
Ai Simulator shows a 72% probability that KC will lose this game by 9 or fewer points and has a 48% probability of winning the game. This game shapes up quite similar in scope to that of the Miami upset in New England. That Dolphin 5* Monster winner was huge for our clients as it also included a 1.5* amount on the money line. So, yes the AiS called for the upset and it is warranted for this game as well. I would recommend an additional 1* amount on the money.
Supporting this grade play is a system that has produced a mark of 94-44 ATS for 68% since 1983. Play on home dogs or pick after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games and is a terrible team sporting a <=25 winning percentage and is now playing a team with a winning record. Denver is off to great 3-0 start, but their recent offensive success works against them this week in a big way. Note that Denver is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Even the posted total works against Denver noting they are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The KC defense has been torched for years, but that works in their favor this week. Note that KC is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992. Take Kansas City and look for the upset as well.
| John Ryan | |
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