With the NHL paused like most other sporting leagues across the globe, there is a good chance that if the season returns, we’ll begin with the postseason. This means that the regular season will be over with a little over 10 games to go.

It also means that the MVP-race would be over, with all stats finalized. With that being said, today we’re taking a look at the top-three front-runners for NHL MVP, from their betting odds to their argument, and including our own pick to take home the Hart Trophy.

1. Leon Draisaitl - LW, Edmonton Oilers

If you would have been told at the beginning of the year that an Oiler would be an MVP-favorite, chances are Connor McDavid would’ve been the first to come to mind. And while McDavid has had a great season in his own right, it’s Draisaitl who has cemented himself as the current favorite to win his first Hart.

At -200, Draisaitl is the current favorite to win MVP. The German led the league in scoring with a career-high 110 points in 71 games, a sizable lead over McDavid, who is in second with 97. With 11 games to go, Draisaitl also had a chance to become the first player to score at least 130 points in a season since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96.

Draisaitl’s case to win the Hart is a solid one. He was the runaway leader in points, much like last year’s MVP Nikita Kucherov, who finished with 128 points for the Lightning. The Oilers were also in solid playoff position with 83 points, sitting three points behind the Pacific-leading Golden Knights.

However, while having a linemate like McDavid may help Draisaitl’s point totals, it could also hurt his MVP-chances. The Oilers captain is an MVP in his own right, despite playing in just 64 games. With McDavid still considered to be perhaps the best offensive player in the entire sport, voters may wonder if Draisaitl could therefore be considered “more valuable”. Additionally, Edmonton’s 83 points are also significantly less than the team point totals of the other two biggest MVP candidates.

2. Nathan MacKinnon - C, Colorado Avalanche

Going into the year, the Avalanche had one of the most-dynamic first lines in hockey. However, both Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen spent considerable time out of the lineup due to various injuries. However, their ailments have not slowed down MacKinnon, who is once again firmly in the conversation to win the Hart.

Currently, MacKinnon sits at +260 to win his first Hart Trophy. In 69 games, the former first overall pick has 93 points, and was well on pace for his first 100-point season after reaching 97 and 99 the last two years. The stronger argument for MacKinnon is production relative to the rest of his team, where the center out-scored his closest teammate by 43 points.

The idea that the Avs were carried to a large degree by MacKinnon this year certainly goes toward his chances of winning. Additionally, Colorado stopped play with 92 points, two behind the Blues for the top record in the Western Conference.

MacKinnon is hoping that will be enough to get him the Hart Trophy, but history may not be on his side. Far more often than not, the league MVP leads the sport in goals, points, or both. If the season is over, MacKinnon will finish seventh in goals and fourth in points. However, there have been two MVP winners following the lockout in 04-05 who were the exception; LW Taylor Hall in 2018 and G Carey Price in 2015.

3. David Pastrnak - RW, Boston Bruins

Colorado’s claim to having the best first line in hockey may have been taken by the Bruins this season. With All-Stars Brad Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, the line has plenty of star power and scoring ability to boot. But the driving force is Pastrnak, who continues to improve every season and is now a viable Hart Trophy candidate.

Where things stand today, Pastrnak is sitting at +550 to take home the hardware. After a career-high 81 points last season, the Czech erupted for 95 points in 70 games, which includes a league-leading 48 goals. In addition to tying with Alex Ovechkin for the goals lead, Pastrnak also led hockey with 20 power play goals and 10 game-winners.

Judging by history, Pastrnak has a couple of things working in his favor. His league-leading goal total, as mentioned earlier, puts him among the large group of former winners who won the award with a lead in either goals or points. Second, the Bruins finished with 100 points, the highest in the league, so he would have the claim of being the “best player on the best team”.

However, much like Draisaitl, Pastrnak has been aided by elite teammates. For instance, Marchand is perhaps considered the more well-rounded player, and also had 87 points including 59 assists this season. And while team success is generally a good thing, there haven’t been too many instances where a player on the league’s best team has won MVP, likely due to too many other teammates who may deserve consideration.

The Verdict

With all due respect to the players like McDavid, Ovechkin, and Artemi Panarin, this year’s Hart Trophy will likely be given to one of the three players highlighted in the article. But who will win?

All three have great arguments, but as of now, I’m taking Draisaitl. Even with McDavid on the team, Draisaitl stood out as the driving force behind Edmonton’s surprise run as a Stanley Cup contender. He also has a sizable lead in points over the rest of the league, which I think will be enough for him to win his first Hart Trophy.

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