By Freddy Wills | February 2, 2010

Mississippi Rebels at Kentucky Wildcats (-10.5, 153.5)

With the Super Bowl just days away we have already released our super bowl picks for the big game! However, on Tuesday we have another super match up in its own right. It will be another great match up on ESPN in college basketball will tip off tonight between two SEC rivals. It’s #3 Kentucky vs. Mississippi. Kentucky have only lost once in Rupp Arena to Mississippi since it opened up in the 70’s and they’ll try to keep that streak alive tonight.

Where is Kentucky going?

Kentucky sits atop the SEC East standings at 5-1 and are 20-1 overall on the season. Where are they going though? John Wall was in the press with some interesting comments about his head coach. Both say it’s not a distraction but many know John Wall is a one and done type player. He most likely will leave for the NBA draft at years end.

The other freshman that has been extremely impressive is Forward DeMarcus Cousins who registered his 4th double-double in a row. He has twelve on the season, which is a Kentucky freshmen record. He had 21 points and 10 rebounds against Vanderbilt in his last game. He is averaging 16.2 and 9.7 on the season.

The key to where Kentucky goes is on the shoulders of the two freshmen. Wall and Cousins will make their impact on the court if they want.

Mississippi?

Ole Miss was on the rise, but then they dropped to bottom feeder Arkansas by 7 points at home when they were double digit favorites. That knocked them out of the top 20 polls and forced them into being double digit under dogs here tonight.

Ironically it was the first time the Rebels out-rebounded an opponent in 12 games as Murphy Holloway came off the bench to grab 17 boards. Miss held a 45-32 rebound edge but it still was not enough as Arkansas shot 48.1% from the field while Ole Miss struggled at 38.2%.

Matchups:

The match ups will be experience vs. youth on Tuesday night. It will be two freshmen in John Wall and Eric Bledsoe facing off against Ole Miss Veterans Chris Warren, Terrico White, and Eniel Polynice who combine for 42.3 points per game.

Miss is finally healthy as both guards in Warren and Polynice fell to season ending knee injuries a year ago. There is no shock that Miss was just in the Top 20 polls and they should return there with a big time road victory tonight.

Stopping Mr. Wall

John Wall made a few comments on how Calipari gave him some criticism for recent play. Calipari was critical of Wall’s play after a loss to South Carolina. Wall said, "I didn't think I played that bad. I don't know what to expect. [Calipari's] probably going to say I played bad (against Vandy), too. I just try not to listen to him and go out and play basketball and try and help my team win."

Wall pulled a 180 on Monday and it appears at least on the surface that his comments were simply out of frustration for his recent play. "I love Coach Cal, he loves me and we're just trying to get everything down pat," Wall told reporters. "We're cool where we're at."

Remember Wall originally was going to play at Memphis but changed his plans and committed to Kentucky because of Calipari. The two have a competitive relationship and I personally do not see it as a problem moving forward. If anything it’s only going to improve the play of Wall who obviously cares what his coach thinks. I really look for Wall to start stepping up in league play in the near future.

Can Miss win?

Absolutely! The Rebels shoot a lot of three’s and they rely on them to win. If they can get hot they can beat Kentucky, but if they are off at all it could be a long night.

Kentucky has shown issues in defending the perimeter as they are 217th in the nation in three point % defense. They actually have played worse at home giving up 36.5% but have played extremely well in conference play giving up just 31.5% shooting from beyond the arch. The Wildcats’ Achilles heel is from the free throw stripe.They are shooting only 68.4 percent for the season, including 67.5 percent from the line in conference play.

Key Trends:

Mississippi

• Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. • Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. • Rebels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. • Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. • Rebels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Southeastern. • Rebels are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss. • Rebels are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog. • Rebels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. • Rebels are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. • Rebels are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5. • Rebels are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. loss. • Rebels are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Tuesday games. • Rebels are 38-18 ATS in their last 56 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Kentucky

• Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games. • Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. • Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5. • Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. • Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. • Wildcats are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. Southeastern. • Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
 

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